Originally Posted By: rshunter
Originally Posted By: JimPghPA
As for computers being reliable enough, if the computers of today can fly the space-shuttle, the computers of tomorrow will be capable of controlling a motorized vehicle.
And as one who has worked in a facility where computers had complete control over a production line, I'll pass. In an environment that was optimized for the automation process, and the possible inputs and outputs were limited to basically "X" or "Y" options, I've seen the carnage that occurs when the computers suddenly decide that they choose option "Z". Seeing $300K worth of assembly line hardware being rendered completely useless isn't a pleasant thing, not to mention the product that suddenly became scrap.
BTW, you've never seen a Japanese engineer lose his cool until you've seen someone tell him that this has happened. I'm talking about decibel levels that could drown out a turbojet engine. I had guys that worked at the other end of the more than 1 million sq/ft plant report having heard it. I can only imagine what he heard when he had to call corporate in Osaka. Better him than me...
As an electronic engineer/teck who worked for a company that designed very reliable computer systems, I remember the system we built for detecting a rip in the cooling of steel as it passed through a continuous casting cooling mold. The customer decided that they did NOT want a computer in charge of making the final decision to stop the production line. Therefore when our system detected that a rip had occurred it was wired to set off an alarm. The operator then was to decide to push a button to stop the line long enough to allow the rip to heal. We told them they were nuts to rely on the operator, but they would not listen. It took about two weeks before out system detected an alarm, set off the horn, and the operator did not push the button quick enough. The liquid steel then pored out of the bottom of the continuous caster and destroyed all of the production line below it. The steel mill was down for a month to pull out and replace everything that was destroyed. But the day after the accident they were on the phone with us asking how long would it take for us to wire our system to shut down the line so it would automatically avoid a break-out when there was a rip.
I have worked with computer controlled milling machines, and I know that the first thing you can expect from them is a crash.
However the applications for the software that will control vehicle will be used in so many vehicles that the cost of doing it right is small compared to the number of users. It is well worth doing.
If you are old enough to remember the protest to end the Vietnam War, you will remember that the driving force behind the movement was the amount of United States Solders that were killed and wounded each year.
As we are today, there are more people killed in vehicle accidents in the United States in two years, than the number of United States Solders killed in all the years we were involved in Vietnam.
When the automated vehicle reaches the point that it can physically and economically work with the required reliability, AND the public is informed of the real yearly cost in lives lost, and crippled, THEN the cry for automated vehicles will be greater that the demand to end the Vietnam War.
Automated vehicles are on the way here, and having had to dodge out of the way of terrible drivers who would have destroyed my vehicle more than once in my years of driving, I for one will welcome it when it becomes the standard.
Google has 7 automated cars that have now driven 140,000 miles on public roads.
One of the biggest problems the Google automated vehicles now have is interacting with other vehicles that are controlled by humans making incorrect traffic decisions. When the human is taken out of the control and proper computer control is used the accident rate will become much less than one percent of what it is now.