Originally Posted By: antiqueshell
Originally Posted By: Pop_Rivit
I've heard people parroting that same line of garbage for the last 50+ years. It simply wasn't true then and isn't true now.
Problem for you now is that the reality is staring you straight in the face, all the stats are pointing to what I said....
Denial will not change the truth.
USD devaluing free fall.
Oil producing countries going to drop the US dollar as the standard. Replace soon.
Unemployment rate at a true 20% according to U6.
Inflation rate is skyrocketing. (Actual, including basic life necessities )
Incomes DROPPING on average, not even keeping up with inflation.
Deficit at new highs growing larger and larger.
We no longer manufacture most things.
This crash is going to be Waaaaaay worse than 33, mark my word.
A lot of what you say is true, but having lived in Europe & the US, there are 2 very striking things:
1) As per the index, housing in the US is incredibly cheap
2) In the US, a lot of people have a lot of disposable income compared to the rest of the world
In the US, people seem to be able to spend a lot of money. If they were to rein that in, and get to the levels of a lot of other countries, they would save a lot more, and the trade deficit would shrink, and you'd be in a position where US investors were buying Chinese, Japanese and German companies.
Suze Orman said that Americans go out too much. The number of meals that are eaten out, the amount of entertainment consumed outside. We complain for example about the cost of theater tickets, but theater audiences have been at a record high. Someone is going out and spending their money on entertainment!
Similarily, the number of places to get coffee for $5 is incredible. A lot of people are spending their money on coffee. You have whole families where every member has a $50 a month telephone and data plan. 10 years ago, nobody was spending this money so it has come from somewhere, usually from the fact that other necessities have become cheaper in real terms over time.
In my opinion, that is the major problem in the US. Too much consumerism, not enough saving. But it also meant that when you get a terrible recession, people have a lot to cut back on, which they have been doing, and 4 years later, they are feeling more optimistic because their net assets have recovered. Imagine that, the economy is still in trouble, but corporations are making record profits after having cut back on employees. The recession enabled corporations to improve productivity and there was still enough purchasing power to enable them to post record profits.