Peak oil (not the brand!)

[4D-56]

Peak oil.

First off, even if you think you know what peak oil means, I'd encourage you to watch this. In my opinion, Matthew Simmons was great. Matthew Simmons - What peak oil is & what it is not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8BJUWKZKHM

I did a search and was quite surprised to find very little discussion here on this topic.

As I type, im listening to Richard Heinberg speak. He's one of a few people that I've been following for a number of years now, along with Matthew Simmons and Michael Ruppert.

I refuse to watch TV and the mainstream media "news" outlets so I browse the internet from time to time.

I'd be interested to hear your opinions on this.

When looking at EROEI (Energy return on energy investment) it strikes me as kind of scary that we're so keen to pull from bitumen & tar sands when the returns are so much lower than what they call conventional oil. Surely that insane EROEI is the writing on the wall, its something that we're pushed to do since other easier sources are dwindling.

I dont buy that demand is down. If it is, its because of the cost due to a weakening economy, in the mean-time, there are more and more people that want to drive and move into a middle class lifestyle typical of what we have. More and more countries are now using oil than ever before.

Just a few words to get it started. Here are two sources that appear more holistic in their approach:

1) Richard Heinberg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rVuquKd7Rg

2) http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_an...f_peak_oil.html

 

[friendly_jacek]

we don't need a lecture on it and know what peak oil is. heck, this nation went to the war to mitigate it. the only thing is the near miraculous success of fracking pushed that peak further into the future. we also learned that while $100+ oil can slow economy, it will not kill it.

 

[Hokiefyd]

We'll never run out of oil. The Bottomless Well is a great book:

http://www.amazon.com/The-Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue/dp/046503117X

 

[RoadRaceJosh]

We don't have enough air to burn the known, accessible (hydro)carbon reserves without catastrophically endangering the environment. Production needs to go down so that prices go up and use goes down. It's only our survival at stake.

 

[4D-56]

Richard Heinberg has some very good words to contest the theories of fracking, oil sands and what is presented in The Bottomless Well.

I think there's more too it.

 

[4D-56]

Originally Posted By: Joshua_Skinner
We don't have enough air to burn the known, accessible (hydro)carbon reserves without catastrophically endangering the environment. Production needs to go down so that prices go up and use goes down. It's only our survival at stake.


But how much energy (oil) do we have to put in (EROEI) to get this "accessible" reserve out?

 

[4D-56]

Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
near miraculous success of fracking


Is this really the truth of fracking, both in its consequences and production ability?

 

[RoadRaceJosh]

Yes, we will see a decline in oil output and this is the definition of "Peak Oil". Don't get too caught up in nomenclature or "look at this!" hysteria. Look at what needs to be accomplished in energy supply to maintain a given standard of living. Yes, oil will cost more to extract. This will absolutely cause oil prices to increase due to the simplest of supply/demand calculations. We are witnessing great strides in solar power, but it's still small potatoes if you will. We can't treat solar as small potatoes as it's really the only way forward which doesn't endanger our planet and ourselves. To get transportation needs met from solar energy means, naturally, electric cars and electric trains. Oil and natural gas will still play a part as electric cars still need rubber tires, but the necessary battery technology is much more of a challenge to our current and future needs than oil extraction. When you get PhD levels of detail as in books written about peak oil it's as if you are looking through a microscope and it's all to easy to lose sight of the larger picture.

 

[bullwinkle]

Originally Posted By: Joshua_Skinner
Production needs to go down so that prices go up and use goes down. It's only our survival at stake.
Don't worry-the oil companies got you covered-we're in the process of our "seasonal" run-up in gas prices here, they have so much crude that we're running out of places to put it. Beware the global warming issue, that's dangerous territory!

 

[Doog]

Originally Posted By: Joshua_Skinner
We don't have enough air to burn the known, accessible (hydro)carbon reserves without catastrophically endangering the environment. Production needs to go down so that prices go up and use goes down. It's only our survival at stake.


Ride your bike to work. I moved my office 21 miles closer which equals 42 miles less or 2 gallons of gas per day less = 10 gallons a week or 500 gallons/ year. I also got rid of all V8 engines and now have only vehicles that get 22mpg city or higher. 2 of my 3 daughters moved to the city within walking distance and one go rid of her car and the other drives
So my best guess is that we as a family of five have reduced our fuel consumption by 47% over 5 years. Plus we now will have all paid off vehicles that will last over 10 years. So the BTU consumption used by actually manufacturing 3 vehicles we won't buy is dramatic as well.

My point: It's not always about CAFE

My next move will be to have all

 

[Al]

Originally Posted By: Joshua_Skinner
We don't have enough air to burn the known, accessible (hydro)carbon reserves without catastrophically endangering the environment. Production needs to go down so that prices go up and use goes down. It's only our survival at stake.

You are precisely right. Oxygen will be the scarse commodity

 

[fdcg27]

The concept of peak oil has been in wide discussion for years now, so I'd guess that anyone not living in a cabin in the woods somewhere is aware of it.
Anyone with even moderate of observational skills also knows that we aren't close to being there yet.
While there remains plenty of fairly easily recovered crude, not every area is blessed with this resource.
This is where things like fracking and exploitation of tar sands come in. At a high enough market price, like that of only a year ago, these resources could be profitably exploited. It isn't that this had to happen, rather it's that the market price made it possible for those without more easily recovered reserves to develop these alternaive sources.
Energy consumed per unit of economic output has been falling in the developed world for the past few decades and total consumption of fosil fuels in the rich world has been falling as well. This is more a matter of years of conservation efforts than of economic decline.
The developing world is a different story, but as nations develop, they come to see the health disaster that uncontrolled use of hydrocarbon fuels can bring, which then leads to efforts both to regulate emissions and to reduce use. We're seeing this in China right now.
Those who have written that continued huge releases of long sequestered carbon will predictably lead to serious consequences in the foreseeable future are probably right, though.
We need to stop destroying forests for agriculture and we need to move in the direction of denser cities and less far-flung development requiring energy-intensive transportation.