NERC Assessment Identifies Largest Threat To Grid: Energy Policy

[DirectRejection]

I have delivered to job sites east of Stockton. Over one hundred bedroom sized batteries to store millions upon millions of watts of power. The neighbors who moved way out to the countryside just love it.

 

[SHOZ]

I have delivered to job sites east of Stockton. Over one hundred bedroom sized batteries to store millions upon millions of watts of power. The neighbors who moved way out to the countryside just love it.

You probably have a lifetime job seeing as they start to degrade almost immediately.

 

[Hillbilly Deluxe]

Wait until all these power companies have built up their infrastructure under the pressing of the Government....the PSC in your state can't stop those 2x rate increases then. The power companies are about to say to the rate payers "Time's up! Pay us the money!"

 

[nomas]

I was talking to a friend of mine that works at a powerplant . They have three coal fired units that are rated at about 600 MW each . He said that Unit 1 will be shut down in about a year so that the plant can meet the clean air standards imposed by somebody in Washington . That's a helluva lot of generation to lose .

 

[Pablo]

It gets worse.

The power companies are held accountable (OK) for any issues, fires, etc and are sued regardless of actual cause (not OK)

 

[OVERKILL]

I guess now that sunny places can oversupply the grid during sunny periods with solar, the next step is to get some kind of storage system worked out. Nuclear isn't really a good solution alone, as it can't be ramped for daily peaks effectively, it is best for baseload power, but solar has eliminated the need for baseload during midday. Now nuclear can be used for storage systems to handle the peaks and store the baseload during the middays.
I wonder what a $2-3-4B pumped storage system would look like? Maybe do half the state?

And that's the problem with letting ideology win over engineering and common sense. If you over-build a technology to the point that it displaces cleaner baseload supply, you are doing it wrong. The goal should be to displace peakers, not clean baseload.

Solar hasn't eliminated the need for baseload, it's simply that over-supply of solar is being allowed to pointlessly displace baseload in some jurisdictions, and those jurisdictions also happen to generally have absolutely insane electricity prices and rolling blackouts/brownouts.

Furthermore, then you have the issue with winter. If you displace clean baseload during the summer, and that capacity is removed from the system, you are going to really have a fun time when it's -30C and solar CF is in the toilet.

Here's Ontario's solar profile for 2022 for example (note the different axis scales for solar and demand):

Here's wind, note the gaping chasms during the winter period where demand spikes and wind is AWOL:

And here's nuclear. Even in a year with TWO VBO's (both scheduled for low demand periods) and multiple units down for refurbishment, it tracks extremely well with demand:

 

[IndyIan]

And that's the problem with letting ideology win over engineering and common sense. If you over-build a technology to the point that it displaces cleaner baseload supply, you are doing it wrong. The goal should be to displace peakers, not clean baseload.

Solar hasn't eliminated the need for baseload, it's simply that over-supply of solar is being allowed to pointlessly displace baseload in some jurisdictions, and those jurisdictions also happen to generally have absolutely insane electricity prices and rolling blackouts/brownouts.

Furthermore, then you have the issue with winter. If you displace clean baseload during the summer, and that capacity is removed from the system, you are going to really have a fun time when it's -30C and solar CF is in the toilet.

Here's Ontario's solar profile for 2022 for example (note the different axis scales for solar and demand):
View attachment 174876

Here's wind, note the gaping chasms during the winter period where demand spikes and wind is AWOL:
View attachment 174877

And here's nuclear. Even in a year with TWO VBO's (both scheduled for low demand periods) and multiple units down for refurbishment, it tracks extremely well with demand:
View attachment 174878

To eliminate all fossil fuels, we still need storage for the daily peaks and valleys though, perhaps bio gas from wastewater treatment can handle some peaks as well? If we got some serious standards for reusability and recyclability of batteries, perhaps small distributed battery storage at renewable sites would work well too?

 

[Hillbilly Deluxe]

To eliminate all fossil fuels, we still need storage for the daily peaks and valleys though, perhaps bio gas from wastewater treatment can handle some peaks as well? If we got some serious standards for reusability and recyclability of batteries, perhaps small distributed battery storage at renewable sites would work well too?

This is the problem. People who actually say/write these things.


Hint: It's not going to happen. I assure you.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Let's just go back to adding tetraethyl lead to gasoline and call it a day. Clearly reducing lead exposure has not increased the intelligence of the average person. /S/

Your snide comment makes our exact point for us.

Lead was determined to cause issues and hence was phased out over time - and the government, scientists, and the automotive industry worked together to find a solution that would work - like alternate chemistry and hardened valve seats. Hence leaded fuel is no more, at least not for on highway vehicles. And no one at all misses it.

There is no such solution for the problem at hand, only fairy dust and graft.

 

[IndyIan]

This is the problem. People who actually say/write these things.


Hint: It's not going to happen. I assure you.

I think in a place like California, its not an unrealistic goal for power generation. It has lots of renewables and add some nuclear and some significant storage and they are there. The climate, sunlight, lots of elevation near urban centres for pumped storage, and reasonably high public buy in for renewables has made it the spot in the US where it's probably easiest to do.

 

[Al]

I worked in the utility industry all my life. I wish we had kept building nukes, but that's another story. The grid is strong you guys have no clue what makes it so. Hint: load shedding.

 

[Blueshound]

Your snide comment makes our exact point for us.

Lead was determined to cause issues and hence was phased out over time - and the government, scientists, and the automotive industry worked together to find a solution that would work - like alternate chemistry and hardened valve seats. Hence leaded fuel is no more, at least not for on highway vehicles. And no one at all misses it.

There is no such solution for the problem at hand, only fairy dust and graft.

I agree with you. All I'm saying is that the electrical-industrial complex is not being controlled by any intelligent process. Maybe it's all the lead exposure after all...

 

[DirectRejection]

I am a big fan of nuclear power and the internal combustion engine.

 

[zzyzzx]

I am intelligent enough to recognize a problem, not intelligent enough to offer a viable solution. I'd suggest nuclear power, but people that are smarter than me, know that solar and wind are much better.

Here in FL, FPL has taken steps to make the local powerlines more robust for hurricanes. Amazingly, we now have regular daily brown-outs. Often one leg only. Despite thinking the two are not related, they are. As the powerlines are now so high, the tops of the pine trees interfere with them. Whereas before, the pine tree tops were above the lines.

That sounds like an easily solvable problem.

 

[OVERKILL]

To eliminate all fossil fuels, we still need storage for the daily peaks and valleys though, perhaps bio gas from wastewater treatment can handle some peaks as well? If we got some serious standards for reusability and recyclability of batteries, perhaps small distributed battery storage at renewable sites would work well too?

Yes, we need storage. I'm partial to PHES because it doesn't have the metals and short lifespan issue associated with most mainstream battery storage technologies (Lithium-based batteries).

For Ontario, I see wind as pretty much useless. On the other hand, I see solar being quite useful, complimenting the baseload nuclear and hydro, which, when paired with storage, should allow us to basically eliminate gas peakers for most of the time.

 

[OVERKILL]

But we *cannot* do this by switching to wind, hydro, and the various forms of solar power. They are better as peak load sources rather than baseload.

Solar can be used to displace daytime air conditioning peaking, but wind tends to produce out of phase with demand, meaning that when there is peaking required, it's typically producing lower than average.

 

[vpr5703]

Solar can be used to displace daytime air conditioning peaking, but wind tends to produce out of phase with demand, meaning that when there is peaking required, it's typically producing lower than average.

Good point.

 

[Cujet]

There is no such solution for the problem at hand, only fairy dust and graft.

I was guessing that nuclear power could probably do it as we have enough nuclear fuel for 1.2 Billion years of ever increasing demand, but again, folks a lot smarter than me say no.

So, there is a solution being offered. It is called a significant reduction in the quality of life to the point of abject poverty and suffering. It includes de-facto travel restrictions, 15 minute cities, severe livestock culling, bugs for protein, R-60 insulation requirements, zero ventilation, no gas stoves, no fuel burning heaters, no wood stoves, the list goes on and on. This nonsense is being honed to perfection at the moment, but don't think for a second it's not happening in the West. Because it is in real-time, right now.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I was guessing that nuclear power could probably do it as we have enough nuclear fuel for 1.2 Billion years of ever increasing demand, but again, folks a lot smarter than me say no.
\

My exceptionally limited understanding of how power grids work is Nuclear is really only good for base loads. Perhaps if we had more nuclear then there would be more other stuff left for peak demand? Maybe others smarter than me can comment. Of course that would require the clown show in DC come up with a long term solution on how to manage the waste, which doesn't seem possible.

Not to mention South Carolina tried to build one and failed epically.

There is also the not so small issue with the transmission grid itself, which may actually be worse than the generation problem at present.

 

[Tyson]

Earlier in the thread, it was asked why electrons are not sent elsewhere when an area is surplus. It is, demand and supply takes care of that. The cost of transmitting electrons increases with distance. Transmission rights are purchased from the owner of the high voltage conductors. Surplus energy is moved to higher demand/priced regions until the cost of transmission negates the transaction. It's the same concept of any market commodity.

As MVAR said, the VAR component of electricity does not travel well, it is required for voltage support. Hence the need for generation close to the load.

The evolving tech of battery storage cannot replace the requirement of rotating mass of thermal generation. It is the shock absorber of the bulk electric system.

IMO, we are in a real pickle. Wide spread outages will manifest with a multi-region cold front. Our over-subscribed natural gas infrastructure will de-pressurize as pumps fail due to condensate freeze.

The solution IMO, is to hold renewable penetration at current levels. Halt the green balling of our base load coal fleet. Expedite new and redundant natural gas pipeline infrastructure, and get the .gov to spearhead normalization of modular nuclear reactors (60-100 mw output) near load centers.

Old school nukes do not chase load well, they are contingency planning nightmares because of their huge output. Newer tech modular reactors are the opposite, 60-100 mw, and will chase the butterfly output of renewables.

There. I need to lie down now.