*Investors Blog*

[alarmguy]

I dont want this market to change. Maybe the way my brain works is just in tune with the way the market is.
Then again, I dont think so differently than reality. Choose big companies making money and at the lower end of the market P/E ratio.
Maybe true smaller companies not going anywhere? I dont know. But on paper, realized and unrealized.
Honestly? I have no clue how to put this all together other than is good enough for me and I feel not risky being retired.
I dont draw on either account.

Taken from the "Total Value" first page of Schwab online (my Roth)
2 year change = up 100.15%
1 year change = up 37.46%
YTD change = up 24.90%

For the heck of it I just looked at my 401k which I only peek a couple times a year.
Its roughly 60/40 nasdaq and s&p index funds

Call me crazy but its easy to make money in a constantly moving up market however I still think its almost as easy to preserve what you make by investing in companies that will not be as affected in a down turn. I guess one day I will find out... unless I bail because I think these increases are insane .

 

[Dave Hess]

I changed my mind about JP.

Next 3 rate cuts should be 75 bps.

Let’s crank up these markets as HIGH as possible.

**** Correction ****

100 bps rate cuts every chance JP gets before he leaves.

The new puppet arrives in May 2026 and cuts to the bone.

Full Disclosure:
I have TMF in anticipation of rate cuts.

 

[k1xv]

I dont want this market to change. Maybe the way my brain works is just in tune with the way the market is.
Then again, I dont think so differently than reality. Choose big companies making money and at the lower end of the market P/E ratio.
Maybe true smaller companies not going anywhere? I dont know. But on paper, realized and unrealized.
Honestly? I have no clue how to put this all together other than is good enough for me and I feel not risky being retired.
I dont draw on either account.

Taken from the "Total Value" first page of Schwab online (my Roth)
2 year change = up 100.15%
1 year change = up 37.46%
YTD change = up 24.90%

For the heck of it I just looked at my 401k which I only peek a couple times a year.
Its roughly 60/40 nasdaq and s&p index funds
View attachment 300227

Call me crazy but its easy to make money in a constantly moving up market however I still think its almost as easy to preserve what you make by investing in companies that will not be as affected in a down turn. I guess one day I will find out... unless I bail because I think these increases are insane .

At age 78, I was still chasing the momentum and tech stocks. Thrilled on the days when the market would go up, punched in the gut the days things went down. Then I realized that I had enough money, if invested in safe high dividend paying stocks, to provide me with all the income I needed and preserved my principal. Yes, the stock prices go up and down from day to day, but otherwise they are reasonably stable. These are called "low beta" stocks, in that they go up and down much less than the market as a whole.

I am fortunate to have an overall portfolio of about $780K. Its invested in stable companies with low p/e ratios and paying dividends yielding around 7% overall. So the annual dividend income is about $54K a year. I only need about half that amount to supplement my other retirement income, so around $25K to $30K a year gets reinvested.

I went through the dot.com market boom and bust and don't want to do that again. The AI impact on the markets is reminding me of the dot.com days. AI will greatly improve our economy's productivity for AI users, but I don't know how that will greatly profit vendors of AI hardware, software, and services.

 

[alarmguy]

At age 78, I was still chasing the momentum and tech stocks. Thrilled on the days when the market would go up, punched in the gut the days things went down. Then I realized that I had enough money, if invested in safe high dividend paying stocks, to provide me with all the income I needed and preserved my principal. Yes, the stock prices go up and down from day to day, but otherwise they are reasonably stable. These are called "low beta" stocks, in that they go up and down much less than the market as a whole.

I am fortunate to have an overall portfolio of about $780K. Its invested in stable companies with low p/e ratios and paying dividends yielding around 7% overall. So the annual dividend income is about $54K a year. I only need about half that amount to supplement my other retirement income, so around $25K to $30K a year gets reinvested.

I went through the dot.com market boom and bust and don't want to do that again. The AI impact on the markets is reminding me of the dot.com days. AI will greatly improve our economy's productivity for AI users, but I don't know how that will greatly profit vendors of AI hardware, software, and services.

OMG I remember the dot.com days. Though I was very involved with my business at the time so wasnt an investor. However my partner and I always followed the markets. He was much more active and honestly it didnt get him far back then. I kind of took what he did and formulated my own plan *LOL* not to do the same, YET look for value in companies. He was good at that but always a moment too soon and then too late. HE was crazy with stocks and options like a wild cannon.

I too look to preserve though once in a while I will do a short term trade which in my world means 6 months or less. GM was a reliable risk free stock, 40 years the stock never went anyplace, HOWEVER you always knew where the bottom was. Very cool.

Covid WMT was a godsend and still is a large holding of mine. (Past was WFC and TMUS both still strong) some GM trades in-between. Plus whatever else I forgot.
So current holdings
WMT - 30%
META - 40%
AMZN - 28%

Personally I hate AMZN ... hasn't done much for me 7% gain (as of today) from when I bought it maybe less than a year ago? I dont know it just felt safe at a time I wasnt sure of the market. META on the other hand has given me 50% in the last roughly 13 or so months. Gosh I love that company right now but that is easy to do when a company is up. Yet I cant see a problem with a company that advertises to 3.2 billion people how they can go wrong (currently) and it's a free global app on top of it.

If and when something comes a long I look at AMZN as a holding pattern. If a great idea strikes me I will sell it, if not, long term? I dont see how it can go bad as long as Amazon WEB services continue to grown.

I only got really serious with the market later in life and much more so in the last 8 or so years.

Great post, thanks!

 

[Pablo]

Full Disclosure:
I have TMF in anticipation of rate cuts.

I also own TMF and sell covered calls. Nice premiums from time to time. Worth it to me even if it limits the upside. Friday was really good.

 

[JeffKeryk]

OMG I remember the dot.com days. Though I was very involved with my business at the time so wasnt an investor. However my partner and I always followed the markets. He was much more active and honestly it didnt get him far back then. I kind of took what he did and formulated my own plan *LOL* not to do the same, YET look for value in companies. He was good at that but always a moment too soon and then too late. HE was crazy with stocks and options like a wild cannon.

I too look to preserve though once in a while I will do a short term trade which in my world means 6 months or less. GM was a reliable risk free stock, 40 years the stock never went anyplace, HOWEVER you always knew where the bottom was. Very cool.

Covid WMT was a godsend and still is a large holding of mine. (Past was WFC and TMUS both still strong) some GM trades in-between. Plus whatever else I forgot.
So current holdings
WMT - 30%
META - 40%
AMZN - 28%

Personally I hate AMZN ... hasn't done much for me 7% gain (as of today) from when I bought it maybe less than a year ago? I dont know it just felt safe at a time I wasnt sure of the market. META on the other hand has given me 50% in the last roughly 13 or so months. Gosh I love that company right now but that is easy to do when a company is up. Yet I cant see a problem with a company that advertises to 3.2 billion people how they can go wrong (currently) and it's a free global app on top of it.

If and when something comes a long I look at AMZN as a holding pattern. If a great idea strikes me I will sell it, if not, long term? I dont see how it can go bad as long as Amazon WEB services continue to grown.

I only got really serious with the market later in life and much more so in the last 8 or so years.

Great post, thanks!

I got serious in the 80's after I got sober. San Jose State, property and market, both risky tech and conservative 401 and more.

Silicon Valley opportunity for the win!

 

[SC Maintenance]

I am guessing treasury yields will bottom in the next month and then head back up. Thats what happened a year ago when the cutting cycle started, and that is what is happening around the world in other developed countries.

Unless recession is imminent - then all bets on how low yields can go is off.

Still not apposed to holding bonds. If your time horizon is more than a couple years worst case is you have a hedge.

 

[gfh77665]

Mid and small caps are even worse. If the economy was growing usually they benefit also - but haven't.

Some keep talking about the "broadening out" that is supposed to happen but never does.

If someone thinks AI productivity gains will essentially be limited to large cap and mega cap companies, then you are likely right.

If mid cap and small cap companies can also harness AI productivity, they will bloom too. That, and Fed easing will benefit the mid caps and small caps because they are more leveraged, more debt dependent. Personally I think their time is about to come.

 

[alarmguy]

If someone thinks AI productivity gains will essentially be limited to large cap and mega cap companies, then you are likely right.

If mid cap and small cap companies can also harness AI productivity, they will bloom too. That, and Fed easing will benefit the mid caps and small caps because they are more leveraged, more debt dependent. Personally I think their time is about to come.

I believe all companies will benefit from AI.
For many companies, it will be just a matter of subscribing to an AI subscription service.
No different then let’s say current outsourcing of an accounting department. AI will come into small businesses and midcap companies as a service for whatever the business or as another example,- medical network needs.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I believe all companies will benefit from AI.
For many companies, it will be just a matter of subscribing to an AI subscription service.
No different then let’s say current outsourcing of an accounting department. AI will come into small businesses and midcap companies as a service for whatever the business or as another example,- medical network needs.

Change makes winners and losers.

 

[bovine1]

Hi all. The 10 year TIP reopening I was waiting on came in with an indicated yield of 1.667%. I'm out. It's down from 1.8 someodd in July. Government artificially forcing down interest rates not good for old folks living off interest. It's good for folks with mortgages and folks with houses for sale I'll grant that. Depends on each persons situation I guess.

 

[Vil_Riker]

Bought a little bit of PTY today - 10% yield and the basis will go up with the interest rate cuts.

Liquidated all my t-bills and moved them to dividend paying stocks.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Hi all. The 10 year TIP reopening I was waiting on came in with an indicated yield of 1.667%. I'm out. It's down from 1.8 someodd in July. Government artificially forcing down interest rates not good for old folks living off interest. It's good for folks with mortgages and folks with houses for sale I'll grant that. Depends on each persons situation I guess.

That's why a balanced portfolio is better suited for the long run. Of course it changes, but stay in the balance game.
I kinda like bonds, but I really like dividends!
Time in the market, as they say. Good luck.

 

[Zee09]

Did a pump and dump on CMTX today... going in low these days
5000 shares on 9 cents...happy

 

[Zee09]

Hi all. The 10 year TIP reopening I was waiting on came in with an indicated yield of 1.667%. I'm out. It's down from 1.8 someodd in July. Government artificially forcing down interest rates not good for old folks living off interest. It's good for folks with mortgages and folks with houses for sale I'll grant that. Depends on each persons situation I guess.

I'm with you on this......
A few percentage points down isn't going to put someone in a house magically. My vote is for the seniors living off of interest...