I am always paying. I figure if I am paying it means I made money.
*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
- Start date
Hey we get the senior exclusive deduction this year. I think!
Yeah, I'm on the other end of investing. A broad portfolio. The conservative stuff is managed by Schwab, the wild stuff is managed by me.
We had to break these out, because from a rebalance point, it is way outta whack. This way makes more sense from a management standpoint.
I would never pretend to understand investing like my Schwab team. They are outstanding. Schwab has had me talk to tax experts and others for issues far beyond my knowledge.
I don't even wanna think about this stuff much anymore. I have to go back to my trust attorney to modify the trust. It's a pain!
If you are lucky, sometimes you need help.
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I do. Its worked out pretty well for me.
There is always a big lag between making drastic changes in policy and the actual impact on the economy. Think there are some recent signs starting to show that. And obviously the stock market doesn't really reflect reality, except when things go sideways then the markets will react, and maybe over react too.
SammyChevelleTypeS3
$50 site donor 2023
Is there any real truth to this story I have picked up on? Did the Fed really drop interest rates often and several times starting sometime in 2020. Then several times in 2024? If so, what exactly did that do? I am debt free with zero loans so I have not paid a lot of attention to borrowing interest rates very much. Except at times to see if it has any effect on future inflation.
I ask because as far as I could tell , the economy did not improve a lot between 2020 and now. The only real thing I have seen is drop in gasoline costs. From what I see every single thing cost more , has been on the rise since 2020 with no end in sight. Still going up up up to this day. How mixed up with this am I ? Have I been misled on any of it? What am I missing or have missed?
I know we have some savvy investors here who must follow the economy very closely who know the ins and outs of what has been affecting it or not?
I ask because as far as I could tell , the economy did not improve a lot between 2020 and now. The only real thing I have seen is drop in gasoline costs. From what I see every single thing cost more , has been on the rise since 2020 with no end in sight. Still going up up up to this day. How mixed up with this am I ? Have I been misled on any of it? What am I missing or have missed?
I know we have some savvy investors here who must follow the economy very closely who know the ins and outs of what has been affecting it or not?
The stock market and the economy are related, but it greatly affects only a few people.
Ownership is extremely top-heavy.
Top 1% of households hold ≈ 49.8% of all corporate equities and mutual-fund shares.
Next 9% (90th-99th percentiles) own ≈ 37.3%.
Combined, the wealthiest 10 % control ≈ 87% of the market; the bottom half own only ≈ 1%.
Approximately 5.5 million Americans had more than $1 million in liquid investable assets as of March 2024, according to CNBC, most of which is in the stock market. There are about 195M people in the US 30 years or older... I'm sure the vast majority of Americans have far lower liquid asset value. Under $50K maybe? Dunno...
Most investors are invested only or mainly in their employer's 401K and can not tell you what their portfolio consists of. Ot what it means...
Look at Silicon Valley; we are one of the highest earning places on earth. Opportunity abounds! But that does not mean people know what to do with their earnings. I know far too many people who made good money but have to leave now because they spent it all, including options, house equity, etc. I just don't get it.
We need to start teaching personal finance in grade school.
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In the last 5 years 10 stocks have accounted for 60% of all US stock market gains. Its even more concentrated over the last 2 years.
NVDA makes really special chips and sells them to the other 9. NVDA recognizes the revenue immediately and the other 9 amortize the expense over 7 years. They have essentially turned into their own fractional reserve system and can now print money. It can't last forever, but like the early 2000's it can go on much longer than many people think.
For the last couple years especially all that matters is those 10 stocks, gold silver and a couple coins. TINA.
NVDA makes really special chips and sells them to the other 9. NVDA recognizes the revenue immediately and the other 9 amortize the expense over 7 years. They have essentially turned into their own fractional reserve system and can now print money. It can't last forever, but like the early 2000's it can go on much longer than many people think.
For the last couple years especially all that matters is those 10 stocks, gold silver and a couple coins. TINA.
I have said this multiple times. They do. The kids don't pay attention. Its something that has to be reinforced at minimum at home. Really taught there. Even that does not always take - my oldest sister has no clue how to handle her money. My other older sister and myself have no problem.
Not directed at you, but we need to quit blaming the school system for 100% of our ills. Parents are ultimately responsible.
And, it needs to start earlier than school. I started teaching my son how to allocate money about a year ago when he was 4. So, as a now kindergartener, he understands the concept of spending, saving, and giving.
Yes ... related, but in a pretty disconnected way when looking forward short term primary because of what you've described - the big boys have some influence of how the market swings on a short term basis, along with the hype of daily news cycles. The short term market big fluctuations are driven by news of possible gloom, or possible heydays (maybe some that being artificially created at times) ... hence the swings between "fear" or "greed" that the "market meter" metric tries to predict on a daily basis. The long term trend of the market's history is about as close to reality that the market can be correlated to. The short term look forward fluctuations (for those day traders, lol) can be manipulate to some degree by that wealthiest 10% that have 87% of the market.
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What's also part of a good lesson on money management is make them earn their own money. I was working my arse off at 10 years old to earn my own money so I could buy things I wanted that my parents wouldn't spend money on. And I saved and spend it wisely.
Too narrow a view. Both depend on money creation.
If you want a growing economy you need money supply creation in a fractional reserve system. There are many ways money can be created - the fed, the government, commercial banks, Eurodollar system (the biggest part no one knows about), and now the mag7 have figured it out also.
If money supply grows (the growth part is called liquidity) then people spend more, businesses hire more, eventually that money lands in the hands of someone with excess and they buy a stock. Money supply growth = economic growth and equity growth, generally speaking.
There may be leads and lags, but thats how the flows work, and why the pro's watch the credit markets so closely.
No, it affects far greater than only a few people. Much of the population is affected directly by the market.
As an example of just one category is that 60% of the working population contributes to a 401k plan and that is just one category.
Your words here resonate with me, they caught my eye yesterday too. It leads me to say this. Investing can be as complicated or as simple as one would like. I read some of these posts and I do understand that maybe some are speaking from a point of view with great wealth (maybe)
However the market is pretty simple to me. Heck I dont even understand half the stuff people talk about in here bonds and options trading (though a long time ago I did trade options), also part of the reason I would love to find a forum site that just talks about companies and their stock. Sometimes I think these other products are for other people besides the investor to make money since many do not understand exactly what they are investing in it can be profitable to the organization offering it (not talking about tax shelters)
Anyway, I choose solid, well know companies with solid earnings growth. Then somehow in my little brain I apply logic as to what the stock is selling for and if it makes sense. That is my Roth, for my 401k I roll with index funds in the S&P and Nasdaq. I actually toy around with rolling the 401k into the Roth as I am handily beating market averages for some time now, including Covid.
However the other half of me says enjoy both worlds, one as I see as conservative (401kfunds) and the other very aggressive holding currently roughly 33% of one of each company and less then 1% cash. At one point 4 stocks 25% each.
There used to be a saying "keep it simple stupid" it doesnt seem very hard to do. That said, its easy to make money in a up market hitting all time highs all the time... however I did it in covid too because there are always companies that make money in good and bad times. Though overall valuations come into play too.
It's fun, relaxing and simple. I dont see need to make it complicated. I think complicated makes money for other people sometimes more than the person investing.
Ok, time to finish my morning coffee. Maybe I am better off being ignorant....
You are not ignorant. You are wise!Maybe I am better off being ignorant....
I think that's a bullish signal for the overall economy. There is tons of room for growth and gains to broaden out.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239693/ishares-msci-usa-etf
My point was, market wealth is highly concentrated in the top 10% of investors. Notice I said "greatly affects".
Sure Most working Americans contribute to their 401K, and that's great. But most do not even know what is in their 401K and the portfolio value of the lowest 50% of Americans is under $100K at time of retirement. If you step down to the lowest 30%, the numbers are staggering. The 2023 median account balance was around $3,691, while the average was higher at approximately $25,716.
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Schools, by definition, are chartered to teach our children. Parents may not know personal finance, or may not even be around.
My parents taught me nothing about personal finance and my father was a Yale grad. In fact, his account swelled after he turned control of it to me.
The answer is pretty simple; it's about time in the market. And don't buy that fancy car, clothes, etc until your house is paid off and your accounts are fat.
Education is the answer. Now what people do with it is another thing... That's my opinion.
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