Help me estimate true odds of timing belt failure

Status
Not open for further replies.
Originally Posted By: joel95ex
I always use an OEM honda belt (hondapartsnow.com is cheapest) but use aftermarket/gates belts for everything else.


Your "Honda" belt is probably a Gates. Look closely. I'm in the middle of changing my cam/crank oil seals (dam Castrol Edge) now on a 96 Civic and I just noticed it's marked with Gates as well.

I changed my belt at 90k, and then 75k miles later. I've never had one break on me but I've never run one more than 90k miles and I RARELY rev any higher than 4000rpm.
 
Originally Posted By: MONKEYMAN
I am having problems determining when to replace the timing belt on a 2001 Lexus RX300. Has 35,500 miles. Gets about 3,000 miles put on it a year. Lexus recommends a 90,000 mile interval. That is about 18 years from now. I am thinking 60,000 miles. The exterior components look very new. However, this is the sludge prone motor. Not sure if that effects belt life.


You should replace that belt at 7-8 years to be safe.( you are overdue) You should also replace the PCV valve and use Pennzoil Platinum oil and change it at least once a year.
 
Originally Posted By: 2003f7
The timing belt broke on my mom's 91 Ford Escort GT 1.8L at 90,000 miles. I was driving with the cruse set at 60 MPH and it just quit and coasted to a stop. That was a non interference engine and no damage was done.


Same thing happened to me in my friend's ~ '80 Toyota Celica. About 18 years ago were just outside Great Falls, MT on our way east to London, Ont, Canada (near Detroit) for school.

We waited about 10 minutes and an ex Air Force Jet mechanic stopped on the interstate in his Subaru, towed us into Great Falls, bought a gear puller, we bought the belt and he insisted on changing it for us in the rain in front of a Napa. He almost wouldn't let us buy him and his wife a Pizza and a beer.

We would never have been able to afford a mechanic to do it (we didn't even have enough money for hotels on a 30 hour cross country drive), and it was a Sunday anyway.

God bless our friends in the USA.
 
Originally Posted By: Jim 5
2003f7 said:
We waited about 10 minutes and an ex Air Force Jet mechanic stopped on the interstate in his Subaru, towed us into Great Falls, bought a gear puller, we bought the belt and he insisted on changing it for us in the rain in front of a Napa. He almost wouldn't let us buy him and his wife a Pizza and a beer.

We would never have been able to afford a mechanic to do it (we didn't even have enough money for hotels on a 30 hour cross country drive), and it was a Sunday anyway.



God bless our friends in the USA.


Wow it always makes me feel better about human beings when I hear the occasional experience like this...Outstanding character...it's nice to know there is still some of it around.
 
Depends if your engine is an "interference" engine or not. if it not, run it till it breaks cuz no harm to the engine will occur. if it is an interference engine then change it or when it does fail it will smash valves.
 
Last edited:
I haven't changed the timing belt yet on my wife's 2000 Civic, and it's got 107k on it now. My beef with Honda is that in the manual it says that only the Canadian cars need to change the belt, but not the ones in the US. Obviously they feel cold weather is the factor here, but it's a warmer climate here in the Toronto area than it is in a lot of the northern US states. So if Honda owners in Minnesota don't need to change their belts on a regular basis, then neither do I.
 
Originally Posted By: Patman
I haven't changed the timing belt yet on my wife's 2000 Civic, and it's got 107k on it now. My beef with Honda is that in the manual it says that only the Canadian cars need to change the belt, but not the ones in the US. Obviously they feel cold weather is the factor here, but it's a warmer climate here in the Toronto area than it is in a lot of the northern US states. So if Honda owners in Minnesota don't need to change their belts on a regular basis, then neither do I.


I would change that soon since it is an interference engine
 
Originally Posted By: Patman
I haven't changed the timing belt yet on my wife's 2000 Civic, and it's got 107k on it now. My beef with Honda is that in the manual it says that only the Canadian cars need to change the belt, but not the ones in the US. Obviously they feel cold weather is the factor here, but it's a warmer climate here in the Toronto area than it is in a lot of the northern US states. So if Honda owners in Minnesota don't need to change their belts on a regular basis, then neither do I.


I just checked AHM Ownerslink and the interval for the timing belt is 105,000 miles/7-years for normal service or 60,000 miles/4-years for severe service.

Quote:
105,000 miles/7 yrs Scheduled Maintenance
Recommended service for your 2000 Honda Civic:

Check idle speed.

Replace coolant; use benuine Honda Antifreeze/Coolant mixed 50/50 with water.

Replace spark plugs (Si model).

Replace the timing belt, and inspect the water pump only if this service was not done at 60,000 miles.

Replace engine oil.

Rotate tires. Follow the pattern shown in the Owner's Manual. Check tire inflation and condition.

Replace engine oil filter.

Check pads and discs for wear (thickness) and damage.

Check calipers for leaks and check tightness of mount bolts.

Check brake lining (or shoes) for cracking, glazing, wear and contamination.

Check wheel cylinders for leaks.

Check steering linkage for looseness.

Check fluid lines for damage and leaks.

Check bolts for tightness.

Check condition of ball joint boots for deterioration and damage.

Inspect driveshaft for cracks and check boot bands for tightness.

Check parking brake adjustment. Should be fully applied within 6 to 9 clicks.

Inspect brake hoses and lines (including ABS). Check the master cylinder, proportioning controlvalve and ABS modulator for damage and leakage.

Check all fluid levels, condition of fluids and check for leaks. If needed, add transmission fluid, engine coolant, brake fluid, power steering fluid, and windshield washer fluid.

Check for damage, leaks and deterioration.

Check for proper fan operation.

Inspect exhaust system. Check catalytic converter heat shield, exhaust pipe, and muffler for damage, leaks, and tightness.

Inspect fuel lines and connections. Check for leaks.


Quote:
60,000 miles Scheduled Maintenance
Recommended service for your 2000 Honda Civic:

Replace the timing belt, and inspect the water pump only if this service was not done at 60,000 miles.

Replace engine oil.

Rotate tires. Follow the pattern shown in the Owner's Manual. Check tire inflation and condition.

Check pads and discs for wear (thickness) and damage.

Check calipers for leaks and check tightness of mount bolts.

Check brake lining for cracking, glazing, wear, and contamination.

Check wheel cylinders for leaks.

Check steering linkage for looseness.

Check fluid lines for damage and leaks.

Check bolts for tightness.

Check ball joint boots for deterioration and damage.

Inspect driveshaft boots for cracks, and check boot bands for tightness.

Replace air cleaner element.

Lubricate door locks, latches, and hinges with mulit-purpose grease, or Honda White Lithium Grease.

Clean antenna mast.

Check the operation of all lights and controls.

Inspect the underbody. CHeck frame and panels for damage. Inspect paint for scratches and stone chipping.

Check parking brake adjustment. Should be fully applied within 6 to 9 clicks.

Inspect brake hoses and lines (including ABS). Check the master cylinder, proportioning controlvalve and ABS modulator for damage and leakage.

Check all fluid levels, condition of fluids and check for leaks. If needed, add transmission fluid, engine coolant, brake fluid, power steering fluid, and windshield washer fluid.

Check for damage, leaks and deterioration.

Check for proper fan operation.

Inspect exhaust system. Check catalytic converter heat shield, exhaust pipe, and muffler for damage, leaks, and tightness.

Inspect fuel lines and connections. Check for leaks.

Inspect and adjust drive belts.

Replace spark plugs. (all models except SI model).

Relace transmission flued; use the proper Genuine Honda fluid: ATF, MTF, or CVT Fluid. (CVT Fluid is for HX with CVT only.).


A proper timing belt service will involve replacing the timing belt, timing belt tensioner(s), drive belts, water pump, crank seal, cam seal, thermostat, spark plugs and valve adjustment. I also suggest doing the radiator hoses. This entire service should cost around $800.

Replacing only the timing belt, water pump and drive belts is NOT a proper timing belt service! You MUST do everything if you want the car to last.
 
Originally Posted By: joel95ex


I would change that soon since it is an interference engine


IMO it's not worth spending $1000 on the Civic at this point in time. If the belt goes it'll give me an excuse to get rid of this car, as I really hate it (so does my wife) although it would be nice if it lasted a couple more years so we can afford to replace it with something new (if the car dies now we'd be forced to buy a cheap used car, but I'm sure we could still find something that drives nicer than this POS)
 
Originally Posted By: Patman
Originally Posted By: joel95ex


I would change that soon since it is an interference engine


IMO it's not worth spending $1000 on the Civic at this point in time. If the belt goes it'll give me an excuse to get rid of this car, as I really hate it (so does my wife) although it would be nice if it lasted a couple more years so we can afford to replace it with something new (if the car dies now we'd be forced to buy a cheap used car, but I'm sure we could still find something that drives nicer than this POS)

If you only want to keep it for a few more years, then the basic timing belt, water pump, drive belt job should not cost more than $500. When the timing belt brakes, you are looking at more than $1500 to repair the damage.

Paying $500 now to ensure several more years of trouble-free operation is a no-brainer.
 
Critic,
maintenance, like any dish is based around the consumer.

Want to have ultimate reliability, spend a grand every month replacing stuff...but you get to own the infant mortality of all of the new parts.

You keep talking of doing a "proper" job, re belts, brakes etc. reinforcing it with MUST.

Whose MUST ?

The OP was talking risk.

That's why people have beaters and family cars.

Risk profiles
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Critic,
maintenance, like any dish is based around the consumer.

Want to have ultimate reliability, spend a grand every month replacing stuff...but you get to own the infant mortality of all of the new parts.

You keep talking of doing a "proper" job, re belts, brakes etc. reinforcing it with MUST.

Whose MUST ?

The OP was talking risk.

That's why people have beaters and family cars.

Risk profiles


For me, whether the car has 200k or 20k, the job willget correctly or I will wait until I can afford to do it correctly before I do it.
 
What's the risk of failure occurring between the time it MUST be done, and the time you can afford to get it correctly done ?

Which statistical analysis techniques do you prefer to weigh up the risk of failure during your deferral period, versus the risks of doing a partial (in MUST terms) job ?

And what of infant mortality ala the fuel pump thread ?
 
Originally Posted By: MONKEYMAN
I am having problems determining when to replace the timing belt on a 2001 Lexus RX300. Has 35,500 miles. Gets about 3,000 miles put on it a year. Lexus recommends a 90,000 mile interval. That is about 18 years from now. I am thinking 60,000 miles. The exterior components look very new. However, this is the sludge prone motor. Not sure if that effects belt life.


Lexus & Toyota recommend belt replacement on the RX/Highlander at 90k or 5 Years whichever comes first. The sludging issue won't have an impact on the belt life.
Most Toyota engines are non-interference engines. With the exception of some engines with VVT-i.
I'm not sure if this engine is interference or not. I don't think it is, but I need to do some more research to make sure.
Either way, Toyota belts have a habit of breaking at 30k PAST the recomended mileage. I know this because of working in a Toyota dealer for a few years.
 
Originally Posted By: The Critic
Originally Posted By: Patman
I haven't changed the timing belt yet on my wife's 2000 Civic, and it's got 107k on it now. My beef with Honda is that in the manual it says that only the Canadian cars need to change the belt, but not the ones in the US. Obviously they feel cold weather is the factor here, but it's a warmer climate here in the Toronto area than it is in a lot of the northern US states. So if Honda owners in Minnesota don't need to change their belts on a regular basis, then neither do I.


I just checked AHM Ownerslink and the interval for the timing belt is 105,000 miles/7-years for normal service or 60,000 miles/4-years for severe service.

Quote:
105,000 miles/7 yrs Scheduled Maintenance
Recommended service for your 2000 Honda Civic:

Check idle speed.

Replace coolant; use benuine Honda Antifreeze/Coolant mixed 50/50 with water.

Replace spark plugs (Si model).

Replace the timing belt, and inspect the water pump only if this service was not done at 60,000 miles.

Replace engine oil.

Rotate tires. Follow the pattern shown in the Owner's Manual. Check tire inflation and condition.

Replace engine oil filter.

Check pads and discs for wear (thickness) and damage.

Check calipers for leaks and check tightness of mount bolts.

Check brake lining (or shoes) for cracking, glazing, wear and contamination.

Check wheel cylinders for leaks.

Check steering linkage for looseness.

Check fluid lines for damage and leaks.

Check bolts for tightness.

Check condition of ball joint boots for deterioration and damage.

Inspect driveshaft for cracks and check boot bands for tightness.

Check parking brake adjustment. Should be fully applied within 6 to 9 clicks.

Inspect brake hoses and lines (including ABS). Check the master cylinder, proportioning controlvalve and ABS modulator for damage and leakage.

Check all fluid levels, condition of fluids and check for leaks. If needed, add transmission fluid, engine coolant, brake fluid, power steering fluid, and windshield washer fluid.

Check for damage, leaks and deterioration.

Check for proper fan operation.

Inspect exhaust system. Check catalytic converter heat shield, exhaust pipe, and muffler for damage, leaks, and tightness.

Inspect fuel lines and connections. Check for leaks.


Quote:
60,000 miles Scheduled Maintenance
Recommended service for your 2000 Honda Civic:

Replace the timing belt, and inspect the water pump only if this service was not done at 60,000 miles.

Replace engine oil.

Rotate tires. Follow the pattern shown in the Owner's Manual. Check tire inflation and condition.

Check pads and discs for wear (thickness) and damage.

Check calipers for leaks and check tightness of mount bolts.

Check brake lining for cracking, glazing, wear, and contamination.

Check wheel cylinders for leaks.

Check steering linkage for looseness.

Check fluid lines for damage and leaks.

Check bolts for tightness.

Check ball joint boots for deterioration and damage.

Inspect driveshaft boots for cracks, and check boot bands for tightness.

Replace air cleaner element.

Lubricate door locks, latches, and hinges with mulit-purpose grease, or Honda White Lithium Grease.

Clean antenna mast.

Check the operation of all lights and controls.

Inspect the underbody. CHeck frame and panels for damage. Inspect paint for scratches and stone chipping.

Check parking brake adjustment. Should be fully applied within 6 to 9 clicks.

Inspect brake hoses and lines (including ABS). Check the master cylinder, proportioning controlvalve and ABS modulator for damage and leakage.

Check all fluid levels, condition of fluids and check for leaks. If needed, add transmission fluid, engine coolant, brake fluid, power steering fluid, and windshield washer fluid.

Check for damage, leaks and deterioration.

Check for proper fan operation.

Inspect exhaust system. Check catalytic converter heat shield, exhaust pipe, and muffler for damage, leaks, and tightness.

Inspect fuel lines and connections. Check for leaks.

Inspect and adjust drive belts.

Replace spark plugs. (all models except SI model).

Relace transmission flued; use the proper Genuine Honda fluid: ATF, MTF, or CVT Fluid. (CVT Fluid is for HX with CVT only.).


A proper timing belt service will involve replacing the timing belt, timing belt tensioner(s), drive belts, water pump, crank seal, cam seal, thermostat, spark plugs and valve adjustment. I also suggest doing the radiator hoses. This entire service should cost around $800.

Replacing only the timing belt, water pump and drive belts is NOT a proper timing belt service! You MUST do everything if you want the car to last.


I religiously do the timing belts/balance belts and have only replaced the water pump once. I did replace the tensioners ONCE and seals ONCE, but doing it every time is not necessary. It now has 349,500 miles so I would argue that doing everything every time isn't crucial. the 300K mark I only replaced the balance and T-belt. and only paid $323 with a 12 month warranty by the shop. the local honda dealer wanted WAY too much for the job.
 
Originally Posted By: dishdude
Originally Posted By: Chuck1986
Something I'm interested in: How much does AGE have to do with timing belt failure? My Mitsubishi has 63k miles on it but it's also nine years old. I know that this engine rarely (if ever) sees a timing belt failure at that low mileage...but the age is a whole different concern.


I just changed the belt on my Grandmothers '98 Cirrus (1997 build with the 2.5L V6 Mitsubishi engine) it has 40k miles on it but I was worried about the age. It looked brand new, and had I have been able to see it before I had it torn apart I never would have changed it due to the age.

In 2008, I once replaced T-belt in a 1989 Toyota Tercel with about 90,000 miles.

The T-belt was the factory one. It looked terrible, but it held for all those years.

I was amazed. I thought a T-belt would fail at 10 years.

That in mind, the T-belt only had to drive one cam with 3 vales per cylinder, and there was no balance shaft. Newer cars are not so simple anymore.
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
What's the risk of failure occurring between the time it MUST be done, and the time you can afford to get it correctly done ?

Which statistical analysis techniques do you prefer to weigh up the risk of failure during your deferral period, versus the risks of doing a partial (in MUST terms) job ?

And what of infant mortality ala the fuel pump thread ?

I don't know what the statistics are. If it is an avoidable risk, I would rather avoid it.

As for infant mortality, depending on the age of the component, the risk of component failure due to wear is almost always greater than the risk of failure due to defects.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom