Disney World- more than wet...

[CarbonSteel]

Originally Posted by alarmguy
What hurricane? Ha the hurricane was never to hit Florida, mass news media, social media sends common people into a feeding frenzy to keep them "tuned in" while those companies make buckets of money on advertising revenue and ratings. Kind of scary and if you think for a minute that you were believing forecasts on a storm, up to 1000 miles away, well, send your money my way, Ill be glad to take it. Bottom line, the storm didnt "turn away" from Florida, it never was heading to Florida, mass media told you it was.The real information, free of hype and fake news is right in front of everyones face but no one goes there. Funny, because every time you collect your paycheck, money is taken out to pay for this agency. Maybe give them a try, not as exciting, no fake news. www.nhc.noaa.gov/ https://www.noaa.gov/....
It has been upgraded to a Category 5 with sustained winds above 160MPH and it looks like it will side-swipe most of the east coast including South Carolina--so I hope it causes minimal damage everywhere.

There seems to be a misconception about the way a hurricane maintains its strength. Although the winds can reduce before landfall and when on land, I have seen hurricanes maintain hurricane strength winds for more than 100 miles inland. These storms are nothing to downplay and whether the OP is in a "sturdy structure" or not, had it gone directly across Florida, the damage would have been major and had it made into the Gulf of Mexico there would be a real possibility of it regaining strength and pressing on. If you think the media made up the story that it was going to hit Florida and then changed directions, you need to seriously stop making up crap. Although predictability has improved in the past 20 years, there are many factors which steer hurricanes and "fake news" is certainly not part of the equation.

 

[zzyzzx]

More importantly, does this have the potential to rain out next weekend in the Northeast?

 

[alarmguy]

People buy into the hype before the facts are in and the bottom line is, they let media get them into a frenzy over fake news. Even today, look at all the possibilities of possible hurricane winds in the chart I posted above from the NHC and by the way, winds only need to clock in at 74 MPH to be called a hurricane which is nothing.

 

[CarbonSteel]

Originally Posted by alarmguy
People buy into the hype before the facts are in and the bottom line is, they let media get them into a frenzy over fake news. Even today, look at all the possibilities of possible hurricane winds in the chart I posted above from the NHC and by the way, winds only need to clock in at 74 MPH to be called a hurricane which is nothing.
Except it is not 74MPH, it is currently above 160MPH and it is SUSTAINED wind speed which means there are always gusts far above that. The sustained winds pound the structures and weaken them, then the gusts remove material. Though the winds are a serious threat, it is the massive rainfall in such a short period of time that cause the catastrophic long term damage.

I have lived on the Gulf Coast all my life and have been though many hurricanes--far better to be "hyped" and take corrective action in advance of the storm than to assume it is all fake news and do nothing. Tropical Storm Allison would be "nothing" on your scale (highest sustained winds of 59MPH) and yet it killed 55 people and caused $8.5 billion dollars in damage.

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted by 2015_PSD
Originally Posted by alarmguy
People buy into the hype before the facts are in and the bottom line is, they let media get them into a frenzy over fake news. Even today, look at all the possibilities of possible hurricane winds in the chart I posted above from the NHC and by the way, winds only need to clock in at 74 MPH to be called a hurricane which is nothing.
Except it is not 74MPH, it is currently above 160MPH and it is SUSTAINED wind speed which means there are always gusts far above that. The sustained winds pound the structures and weaken them, then the gusts remove material. Though the winds are a serious threat, it is the massive rainfall in such a short period of time that cause the catastrophic long term damage.

I have lived on the Gulf Coast all my life and have been though many hurricanes--far better to be "hyped" and take corrective action in advance of the storm than to assume it is all fake news and do nothing. Tropical Storm Allison would be "nothing" on your scale (highest sustained winds of 59MPH) and yet it killed 55 people and caused $8.5 billion dollars in damage.

Originally Posted by 2015_PSD
Originally Posted by alarmguy
People buy into the hype before the facts are in and the bottom line is, they let media get them into a frenzy over fake news. Even today, look at all the possibilities of possible hurricane winds in the chart I posted above from the NHC and by the way, winds only need to clock in at 74 MPH to be called a hurricane which is nothing.
Except it is not 74MPH, it is currently above 160MPH and it is SUSTAINED wind speed which means there are always gusts far above that. The sustained winds pound the structures and weaken them, then the gusts remove material. Though the winds are a serious threat, it is the massive rainfall in such a short period of time that cause the catastrophic long term damage.

I have lived on the Gulf Coast all my life and have been though many hurricanes--far better to be "hyped" and take corrective action in advance of the storm than to assume it is all fake news and do nothing. Tropical Storm Allison would be "nothing" on your scale (highest sustained winds of 59MPH) and yet it killed 55 people and caused $8.5 billion dollars in damage.


There are no 160 MPH winds near the US coast and none are forecast and no warnings for any.

 

[Quattro Pete]

Originally Posted by alarmguy
Incorrect again (just discussing here) if one paid attention to the CONE of possibilities they would have seen a variation of close to 1000 miles of possibilities from CUBA to Hilton Head SC.
This is what NOAA was showing 2 days ago.

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted by Quattro Pete
Originally Posted by alarmguy
Incorrect again (just discussing here) if one paid attention to the CONE of possibilities they would have seen a variation of close to 1000 miles of possibilities from CUBA to Hilton Head SC.
This is what NOAA was showing 2 days ago.

Originally Posted by Quattro Pete
Originally Posted by alarmguy
Incorrect again (just discussing here) if one paid attention to the CONE of possibilities they would have seen a variation of close to 1000 miles of possibilities from CUBA to Hilton Head SC.
This is what NOAA was showing 2 days ago.

But you didnt read the "text" of the forecast and even as of today (not saying you specifically) and that chart you show is within the limits of the time period stated, those are the odds for those hours and it could of even ended up off the coast of Cuba OR in those hours it could have been on its way to strike Georgia or a more northern state.

also...
How many people know how small this hurricane is?
High winds for sure, again, not near the US coast.

BUT, HOW MANY PEOPLE UNDERSTAND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM.
Think about that, we have a variation of 1000 miles or so where this hurricane can go in regards to the US coast to catch a hurricane wind that only exists 35 miles from the center of the storm.

Quote from TODAYS NHC = "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center..."

I hope you know I am only discussing here!! )

 

[CarbonSteel]

Originally Posted by alarmguy
There are no 160 MPH winds near the US coast and none are forecast and no warnings for any.
For everyone in Dorian's path, I hope that remains that way--two days ago it was going to land in Florida and now it is projected to move along the coast. Things can change, but I also hope there is not widespread flooding from the rains. The flooding combined with the inevitable power loss during the hottest time of the year will be misery for those affected.

 

[alarmguy]

It was never going to land in Florida, the news was reporting it but fact stated it was just a possibility as it still is, it was also a possiblity it could have headed to Cuba or up north to GA, SC, or NC.
Also as I posted above hurricane force winds ONLY extend 30 miles from the center of the storm..

 

[Quattro Pete]

Originally Posted by alarmguy
and that chart you show is within the limits of the time period stated, those are the odds for those hours and it could of even ended up off the coast of Cuba OR in those hours it could have been on its way to strike Georgia or a more northern state.
Well, you can't wait until the last minute, until you have 99% certainty to issue evacuation warnings as that will not give people enough time to do anything about it, so unfortunately the warnings are issued early enough to give people time to get out or enough time to stock up on supplies, knowing well things may change. Better safe than sorry. Basically what 2015_PSD said:
Originally Posted by 2015_PSD
far better to be "hyped" and take corrective action in advance of the storm than to assume it is all fake news and do nothing.


Otherwise, if the hurricane hits and people die, there is going to be a huge outcry that media did not do enough to warn people in advance.

 

[CarbonSteel]

Originally Posted by alarmguy
It was never going to land in Florida, the news was reporting it but fact stated it was just a possibility as it still is, it was also a possiblity it could have headed to Cuba or up north to GA, SC, or NC.
It seems that you have missed your calling in life--it is very easy to say it was never going to hit Florida after the projections change, but if you knew that for certain days ago, then you have skills that you are wasting as an alarm engineer.

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted by 2015_PSD
Originally Posted by alarmguy
It was never going to land in Florida, the news was reporting it but fact stated it was just a possibility as it still is, it was also a possiblity it could have headed to Cuba or up north to GA, SC, or NC.
It seems that you have missed your calling in life--it is very easy to say it was never going to hit Florida after the projections change, but if you knew that for certain days ago, then you have skills that you are wasting as an alarm engineer.


oh .. not at all ... Im protecting many more people and business in my industry then I can any other way

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted by Quattro Pete
Originally Posted by alarmguy
and that chart you show is within the limits of the time period stated, those are the odds for those hours and it could of even ended up off the coast of Cuba OR in those hours it could have been on its way to strike Georgia or a more northern state.
Well, you can't wait until the last minute, until you have 99% certainty to issue evacuation warnings as that will not give people enough time to do anything about it, so unfortunately the warnings are issued early enough to give people time to get out or enough time to stock up on supplies, knowing well things may change. Better safe than sorry. Basically what 2015_PSD said:
Originally Posted by 2015_PSD
far better to be "hyped" and take corrective action in advance of the storm than to assume it is all fake news and do nothing.


Otherwise, if the hurricane hits and people die, there is going to be a huge outcry that media did not do enough to warn people in advance.



But there were no warnings OR hurricane watches and there still are none. I wonder how many people were injured and died, caused by the hysteria?
How many people ended up in emergency rooms in Florida over a less then 100 mile wide hurricane a 1000 miles away with a path so uncertain there was no hurricane watch or warning?
Its so easy to get people to crazy even when presented with facts they ignore it and listen to the "hype'.

 

[gathermewool]

Originally Posted by alarmguy
Originally Posted by Quattro Pete
Originally Posted by alarmguy
and that chart you show is within the limits of the time period stated, those are the odds for those hours and it could of even ended up off the coast of Cuba OR in those hours it could have been on its way to strike Georgia or a more northern state.
Well, you can't wait until the last minute, until you have 99% certainty to issue evacuation warnings as that will not give people enough time to do anything about it, so unfortunately the warnings are issued early enough to give people time to get out or enough time to stock up on supplies, knowing well things may change. Better safe than sorry. Basically what 2015_PSD said:
Originally Posted by 2015_PSD
far better to be "hyped" and take corrective action in advance of the storm than to assume it is all fake news and do nothing.


Otherwise, if the hurricane hits and people die, there is going to be a huge outcry that media did not do enough to warn people in advance.



But there were no warnings OR hurricane watches and there still are none. I wonder how many people were injured and died, caused by the hysteria?
How many people ended up in emergency rooms in Florida over a less then 100 mile wide hurricane a 1000 miles away with a path so uncertain there was no hurricane watch or warning?
Its so easy to get people to crazy even when presented with facts they ignore it and listen to the "hype'.



Dude, like you're some freaking soothsayer!

Who on Earth wouldn't prepare if they were in the POTENTIAL path of a powerful storm.

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted by daves87rs
Hi-

Set up for our trip (my 1st, wife's like 5th) trip to Disney World. Was a bit worrried (money wise), but was geeked until th last few days...

I'm sure as most of you know-hurricane Dorian is on the way. Thinking we will lose Monday (stuck at resort/hotel), maybe more.
I've never ever been in or around a hurricane before. Not going to lie here, kinda scared! I have been told we will be taken care of, but this still has my stress even quite high.

For those of you who have been through this, what did you do? Wife is still gun-ho about going, but I don't know.......


Disney World officials said its resorts will remain open.

 

[ctechbob]

Originally Posted by Railrust
I would think that is you're staying actually at Disney...you'll be safer than anyone on the planet.

That place has an entire underground world they could put you in if they had to. We're talking government level stuff (and probably better than that). The place is a fortress. Having said that, yeah you certainly don't want a hurricane on your vacation.



Err, not quite. They have a tunnel system under the Magic Kingdom that consists of a whole bunch of maintenance stuff and meeting rooms. The only other place is a small area under EPCOT that is just mainly building access. Nothing that could even remotely be considered 'government level fortress'

 

[alarmguy]

All this talk about a storm that was never to impact Orlando but hyped by the press to make you think so, peope failed to read the full text on the NHC and how unreliable storm forecasting was for this storm so far away, next time, ignore advice about storms 1000 miles and 7 days ahead, start paying attention to 3 days.

 

[Schmoe]

Curious...what did the OP do???

 

[gathermewool]

Originally Posted by alarmguy
All this talk about a storm that was never to impact Orlando but hyped by the press to make you think so, peope failed to read the full text on the NHC and how unreliable storm forecasting was for this storm so far away, next time, ignore advice about storms 1000 miles and 7 days ahead, start paying attention to 3 days.



Again, who do you think you are?

My parents live an hour north of Orlando, which is admittedly a VERY safe area to be RE: hurricanes. Even still, the chance they might be hit with a CAT 1+ hurricane prompted them and and their neighbors to prepare 100% or a hurricane. I bugged them every day to ensure they were set and didn't need to drive somewhere safer, until the ACTUAL path proved to be 100% on a northerly, coastal track for FL.

I find it disingenuous for anyone to say that they wouldn't prepare in the same way, given the same possibilities. For those who don't prepare for the possible, I call that stupid.

Personally, I turn the fridge and deep freezer, as well as the HVAC, to max prior to a potentially large storm hitting us. For the past dozen storms or so we haven't lost power, but that won't change how I prepare for future storms. We have lost power twice in the past two years, and having each at max proved to lower gas consumption of our WEN 2kW generator, making that precious 1 gal of capacity last so much longer.

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted by gathermewool
Originally Posted by alarmguy
All this talk about a storm that was never to impact Orlando but hyped by the press to make you think so, peope failed to read the full text on the NHC and how unreliable storm forecasting was for this storm so far away, next time, ignore advice about storms 1000 miles and 7 days ahead, start paying attention to 3 days.



Again, who do you think you are?

My parents live an hour north of Orlando, which is admittedly a VERY safe area to be RE: hurricanes. Even still, the chance they might be hit with a CAT 1+ hurricane prompted them and and their neighbors to prepare 100% or a hurricane. I bugged them every day to ensure they were set and didn't need to drive somewhere safer, until the ACTUAL path proved to be 100% on a northerly, coastal track for FL.

I find it disingenuous for anyone to say that they wouldn't prepare in the same way, given the same possibilities. For those who don't prepare for the possible, I call that stupid.

Personally, I turn the fridge and deep freezer, as well as the HVAC, to max prior to a potentially large storm hitting us. For the past dozen storms or so we haven't lost power, but that won't change how I prepare for future storms. We have lost power twice in the past two years, and having each at max proved to lower gas consumption of our WEN 2kW generator, making that precious 1 gal of capacity last so much longer.


My question to you would be prepare for what?
A storm a thousand miles away? Predictions with a 1000 mile chance of error?
Absolutely NO watches or warning for Florida or the Florida coast at the time ONLY a possibility of where the storm could go at the time.

and what happened?
Within a reasonable time of forecasting, DAYS left to prepare if need be we found out the storm track was to go up the coast.
People died and were injured preparing for a storm that never was officially forecast to hit them.
There WAS plenty of time to prepare or leave the area ONCE the official forecast track, warnings and watches were issued.

So who do I think I am you ask?
Someone who pays attention to the NOAA/NHC warnings and watches. I take watches and warnings serious NOT news media hype or possible storm tracks that have an area 1000 miles wide of possibilities.

Here is a quick search - click


Gosh, all my posts have said is ignore the mass news media/internet hysteria hyping storms they know nothing about all in the name of advertising revenue.
News media could care less about accurate reporting. By all means, NOAA and the NHC have tracking and predicting the direction of Hurricanes down to a science, its VERY impressive, why not wait for them to issue a "watch or warning" instead of doing your own forecast based on what if, what if what??

Let NOAA and the NHC do its job, not the news media and by all means, take it very serious when they issue a watch or warning.