China to build 6-8 reactors a year

[pezzy84]

**Mods delete please**

 

[Bill Judson]

Unlike many Americans....I am far more concerned about China in the future than Russia, Russia, Russia.....

Bingo! Russia can't even take Ukraine so all they really have is nukes. Their military sucks.

I'll bet once China invades Taiwan it won't be a long drawn out affair at all.

Maybe we should arm Taiwan with nukes to level China as a deterrent... maybe mutually assured destruction of both countries would be enough deterrent for China to not invade.

 

[PandaBear]

Originally Posted by PandaBear
When they have a sizable stockpile of waste, they'll likely be the biggest researcher / spender on reprocessing and fast / actinide fuel reactor, maybe thorium reactor too.
Or just toss it in the ocean like they do with the rest of their trash.

They have Gobi desert, don't need to dump it in the ocean and worry about other countries complaining about it.

Plus if they change their mind it is easy to dig it up in a desert and much harder to take it out of the deep sea.

 

[PandaBear]

Bingo! Russia can't even take Ukraine so all they really have is nukes. Their military sucks.

I'll bet once China invades Taiwan it won't be a long drawn out affair at all.

Maybe we should arm Taiwan with nukes to level China as a deterrent... maybe mutually assured destruction of both countries would be enough deterrent for China to not invade.

They are ethically the same people, it is like saying we should have shot nuke between the Union and Confederate in order to win a civil war, their own people may revolt against them (they meaning both sides).

I believe MacArthur once suggested using nuke in the Korean War and was told no, for the same reason.

 

[PandaBear]

The two CANDU's built at Qinshan in the early 2000's were built with the purpose of running on spent LWR fuel, so yes, China has intentions on reprocessing/recycling. State run programs are only as good as the states running them. Here in Ontario, our provincially run plants have very good track records for reliability, as does our single facility (the largest operating plant on the world, which is publicly owned/privately operated) at Bruce, however, if you were to map its output it would appear sporadic, since it does load following and offers up to 2,400MW of flexible generation.

France has an excellent operating record of publicly owned units as well.

Large roll-outs are typically public in nature because only the government is willing to put forth that amount of capital with such a long horizon on payback. Now, that's not always the case, Bruce Power is spending $13 billion to refurbish six units at their site, the cost of which will be recuperated through rates, which will take probably 10-15 years, as they are on a fixed-rate contract at $0.077/kWh.

One thing I have noticed is that for-profit operators, like Bruce Power, are more inclined to pursue uprates to increase unit output. Darlington Unit 2 came back from refurb early this year and nameplate remains unchanged. Bruce plans on trying to get as close to 7,000MWe out of their site as possible in comparison and the site has increased in output several times already. Originally 6,280MWe, it's now 6,430MWe.

Maybe that 10-15 years can shrink to 5 if you guys work with the big tech companies to build AI data centers next to it and power it "off grid", or just mine crypto.

 

[PandaBear]

I am a believer in nuclear power so please do not make assumptions about my stance when I say what I am about too. I have little faith in government run programs. I was in a unique position after 911 dealing with emergency planning regarding a 3 unit plant (2 active; 1 decommissioned). Originally these units were run by NY Power Authority and then bought out by a larger operation. I had zero nuclear background and had to learn a lot quickly. The people I met that work(ed) at the plant were truly dedicated, professional, brilliant Navy Nuke techs to boot. Class act throughout the system.

While researching my new task output stood out like the proverbial prostitute in church. NY Power Authority output graphed looked like an EKG of a heart attack. Very inconsistent. After private takeover the output graph was much more linear and deep valleys were the result of refueling. Seems inconsequential but I believe it reveals a lot. A lot about government control. These were good people working in a bureaucratic system as best they could. Many more examples but not for a public forum.

What I fear is Chinese government control of what really is a massive project. Chinese utter disregard for the environment with cement factories is somewhat understandable but the truly egregious toxic dump sights are inexcusable IMHO. Playing with a nuclear reactor with cavalier attitudes is a world wrecking experiment. Making a few scientists disappear like COVID isn't going to cut it in the wake of a catastrophe.

I don't want to assume but I sure as heck hope the Chinese will reconstitute spent fuel assemblies. It's absurd the US does not allow reconstitution of commercial fuel assemblies; only the military does. Besides the obvious waste the onsite storage of spent fuel is a disaster in the making. That's just my opinion.

Doesn't help that I'm reading Midnight in Chernobyl

The biggest problem with reprocessing is cost, it is much cheaper to just use fresh uranium instead. Maybe we can make them cheaper if we can research new way to reprocess, but with cheap oil it is likely not going to happen.

I still think China is doing nuke mainly to reduce pollution and foreign blockade risk. Today they may have Russia to back them up with oil, but you can never guarantee geopolitics forever (look at Vietnam and Ukraine).

 

[Bill Judson]

it is like saying we should have shot nuke between the Union and Confederate in order to win a civil war

Yeah but the nukes back then were very unstable and not reliable at all back in the 1800s ya know.

No, the real Chinese government is in Taiwan so those people are totally different than the commies controlling the mainland

Back when men had backbone (like in the US war for independence) many would rather die than to live under tyranny and commie tyranny is the worst kind since they are known to dig gigantic holes and kill dissidents and bury them until nodody opposes the commies anymore.

 

[2strokeNorthstar]

China has recently finalized their own domestic reactor design, the Hualong One, which is based heavily on the French (Areva) EPR units. This is a Generation III reactor and will likely be the dominant reactor design going forward.

China has been on a three-year hiatus from approving new builds (existing builds continued), but this has now ceased and they are expecting to ramp up approval and production to 6-8 units a year so they are able to meet their 2030 targets:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-exec-idUSKCN1RD16V?utm_source=applenews

Quote
BEIJING (Reuters) - China will be able to build six to eight nuclear reactors a year once the approval process gets back to normal in the near future, the chairman of the state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation told Reuters on Monday.

"That should be enough to meet our country's 2030 development plans," he said on the sidelines of an industry conference.

China did not approve any new projects for three years until it gave the nod to two new reactor complexes in southeast China earlier this year.


This includes an immediate plan for a total of 26 reactors in Guangdong, with the goal of 46:

Quote
The 120 billion yuan (US$17.74 billion) megaproject, to be run by the state-owned China General Nuclear Power Corp (CGN), will bring the total number of nuclear reactors in Guangdong, a manufacturing powerhouse and China's largest provincial economy, to 26.

CGN's ultimate plan is to boost that number to 46, spanning 11 plants, to power Guangdong's booming economy, whose gross domestic product in 2018 is tipped to hit the 10-trillion-yuan mark and surpass South Korea and Canada.

The new reactors in Huizhou, already given the go-ahead by China's environmental watchdog, will be built around China's indigenous, third generation Hualong (China Dragon) pressurized water nuclear reactor standards. The total power generation capacity will be equivalent to Hong Kong's annual electricity consumption, according to CGN.


At 1,170MW per unit, the 6-8 year target means that over the next 11 years we can expect a ramp up to 6-8GW per year of new nuclear to come online; 66-88GW total within that period. While still paling in comparison to the country's seemingly insatiable thirst for coal at 981GW of installed capacity, it would push total installed Nuclear to ~110GW, likely making it the third largest source of power in terms of actual generation output behind coal and hydro.

It's almost like they want a way to charge the electric cars

 

[PandaBear]

Yeah but the nukes back then were very unstable and not reliable at all back in the 1800s ya know. View attachment 217469

No, the real Chinese government is in Taiwan so those people are totally different than the commies controlling the mainland

Back when men had backbone (like in the US war for independence) many would rather die than to live under tyranny and commie tyranny is the worst kind since they are known to dig gigantic holes and kill dissidents and bury them until nodody opposes the commies anymore.

Both sides were tyrants back then (Taiwan wasn't a democracy until around early 90s) and they were lucky the dictator's son was a good man who build up the island, lay the foundation of democracy in the 80s.

Today culturally they are still "similar" enough, trade with each other, marry across sometimes, etc. My ex wife and I were on opposite side, our culture are similar. They are not "totally different" like Texans are not "totally different" than Californians.

 

[Snagglefoot]

Originally Posted by A_Harman
People will eat anything if you put it into a hot dog. Which brings up my next subject of what to do with nuclear waste.

Ship the waste to N Korea.

Hey, the Japanese have the Americans eating Sushi !

 

[Snagglefoot]

They have Gobi desert, don't need to dump it in the ocean and worry about other countries complaining about it.

Plus if they change their mind it is easy to dig it up in a desert and much harder to take it out of the deep sea.

Seriously yes. They don’t have to contend with “not in my backyard” and this will give them a huge financial advantage over anything the USA or Canada can come with. Their official view point is “ we are working to get off coal but will continue to build coal plants until we reach an inflection point where we have enough energy, continue build out solar, wind and nuclear, and start closing older coal plants.” I guess all we can do is be patient and hope the younger generation is willing to play ball as the old guard passes on.

By the way, China went communist 75 years ago. The current President of China was 5 years old when it happened. Time for a change?

 

[Snagglefoot]

The President of China ( the top Dog), is Xi Jing Ping. Xi is what we would call his last name. It would be pronounced in English as Shee. What we would call his first name and second name are Jing Ping and are pronounced as such. Probably close enough, but still you'd have to have experience speaking Chinese to get it totally correct. Someone correct me if I’m wrong. Thanks.