'21 Toyota CH-R; may need rear shocks at 38k mi

That could either be the shocks or the sway bar bushings. I have no idea if that car even has a rear sway bar, but when I have had weird suspension creaks in the rear, that has been the cause in my experience.
I’m with RBT. Sway bar bushings can get creaky. Shoot them with a shot of Fluid Film where the sway bar enters the bushings. Both sides of the car and both sides of the bushing. If it’s goes away or quiets down, you have your confirmation.

My Jeep has a rear shock that looked like yours. I cleaned it up and haven’t seen weeping since. I did get a free set of shocks ( and Rubicon springs) from a friend who put a lift on his Jeep, so I could change it if needed, but it’s not leaking anymore.
 
Good point on the sway bar bushings. I didn’t think about that because the noise is very pronounced when inside and I couldn’t duplicate it with bouncing the rear end to hear it from the outside, but noises can behave weirdly, so it’s worth a try.

I ordered new shocks anyways, at $55 each, even if I don’t change them, I will likely not get them for this price in the future, it’s a good hedge against inflation.
 
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