It seems like at best it would depend. If you're managing lubricants for a race team and are using fresh engines all the time then what you see in the oil probably represents what is being produced by wear, provided you've done a flush of some sort to clean the engine.
With engines that have been run for awhile it gets more complicated. Some studies relying upon something in the oil use pretty elaborate flushing procedures when changing types of oil, as there is a 'residue' of chemicals and metals in engines.
A 'residue' seems like common sense, considering that we rely upon film formation for wear protection, and that we also end up with 'varnish' and such in engines. In a FAQ on their aircraft oil web site Mobil-Exxon mentions that when switching to their synthetic blend one will see elevated metals for awhile, I guess in part due to existing films being dissolved and/or replaced.
The best data that I've seen on the subject was from one doing UOAs on a regular basis on a long Mobil 1 oil change interval, where they also tracked oil consumption. Most people seem to just average the metals values over entire interval, but averages by design minimize variation and in some cases it's the variation that you're most interested in. As an example long term averages can hide the fact that your oil was toasted three samples back. Looking at the data by metals introduced between each UOA sample one sees a pattern of an initial spike, then it gets low, then it goes up, and eventually the data doesn't make sense as you end up with negative values of metal being introduced. For me this confirmed that something, probably film(s) formation, was soaking up some of the metals, and that UOA accuracy may not be adequate for some types of conclusions that are needed.
In summary, the practice of averaging UOAs over a long period seems so ingrained that it's almost impossible to even explain in this forum why it's a problem, much less show data that demonstrates it. Negative wear metals betwen UOA samples makes it clear that typical UOAs aren't reliable.