Toyota CEO Statement on Future Market Share

[BISCUT]

In a previous post I mentioned the area I lived in (lower Dutchess Cty, NY) was ripe for charging infrastructure but overall rather lacking. I questioned barriers to entry or ROI simply not high enough for businesses to invest. I believe that was two days ago. On the news of all places, this morning I heard a snippet stating Toyota CEO from Japan reports EV's max out at 30% of the overall vehicle market. Now that makes sense to me.

EV's are not for me in my current driving habits or geographical location. I could see the utility if I were urban. But I'm not. More I learn the more I'll stay away but no issues if EV's work for you. Not a bash here as I won't spend my money on one but to each their own. EV's don't hinder me in any way just the possibility of Govt mandating them.

EVs Will Max Out At 30 Percent Market Share: Toyota Chairman

Also, online used car retailer Vroom is dead, and Boeing may not hit its production goals because of recent issues.

jalopnik.com

It's one thing for many of us to say EV sales have cooled significantly or no way EV's are more popular than ever; another when a business titan has these words to say.

 

[BISCUT]

My link was not working (spinning wheel of torture) so here is similar from MSNBC.

MSN

 

[cptbarkey]

He can prognosticate all the wants and who knows what it will be. People like choices, and in general extremely dislike mandates.

Manufacturers and the current over-saturated-news idiot savant can continue pushing for economies of scale in the meantime.

 

[Rand]

He can prognosticate

Did you get a word of the day calendar for Christmas?

 

[burbguy82]

Toyota is smart, they play the long game. I think that if Toyoda does not want to go all in on EVs, there is a good monetary reason.

 

[JoelB]

I really dislike how it always seems to boil down to EV vs ICE. Both have benefits and both have lifestyles they suit well and visa versa. No one should be forced to buy either one is my main opinion.

 

[BISCUT]

I really dislike how it always seems to boil down to EV vs ICE. Both have benefits and both have lifestyles they suit well and visa versa. No one should be forced to buy either one is my main opinion.

100% Agreed! This is why Gov't is best to incentivise but otherwise get out of the way!

 

[fantastic]

Change is inevitable... You either sink or swim. Toyota isn't the only one continuously adjusting to the markets. I just don't see why so many folks bellyache about being "forced" to buy an EV. No one is forcing anyone to buy an EV period but the market will eventually be EV so we might as well get used to it if you still want to buy that new car in a decade or so. Otherwise get handy with your older ICE & bring it to the grave with you.

 

[jeepman3071]

Change is inevitable... You either sink or swim. Toyota isn't the only one continuously adjusting to the markets. I just don't see why so many folks bellyache about being "forced" to buy an EV. No one is forcing anyone to buy an EV period but the market will eventually be EV so get used to it if you still want to buy that new car in a decade or so. Otherwise get handy with your older ICE & bring it to the grave with you.

What data do you have to confidently back up that statement?

 

[Danno]

I would agree with Toyota's CEO, however would be great if their current hybrid offerings had better availability. RAV4 Primes are out 3 years to get one as an example. At least in my area.

 

[Vitamin Yoda]

How's the cold weather working out for EV owners?

 

[dnewton3]

How's the cold weather working out for EV owners?

It's already been discussed many times here in other threads.

EVs have challenges with extreme cold. So do fossil fuel vehicles, especially diesel fuel if not properly treated. The challenges are unique to the fuel source, but overall no energy is completely without risks.

 

[fantastic]

What data do you have to confidently back up that statement?

History, EV's are the alternative replacement choice for ICE vehicles now & in the past. Ad in the fact that the OEM's have been dabbling in electric cars for decades. The last two more so & the last ten years even more EV's offered/sold. Follow the trend. Will there be some sort of revolutionary alternative to EV's that are the majority offered I doubt it in my lifetime. The OEM's have basically hinted to us their path this & the next decade is electric. Toyota lagging to transition b/c they don't necessarily need to. They have the reputation of "reliability" that nets them good sales figures so they don't have a whole lot of incentive for a fast electric change up but they will eventually. I will say they better be prepared in case we get Chinese EV's in the US/CA.

 

[javacontour]

Did you get a word of the day calendar for Christmas?

I'm thinking either the introduction of Puxatawny Phil or on CarTalk. IIRC, I've heard the word used by both.

 

[dnewton3]

ICE vs EV should not be a war of what's right or wrong. Because neither is perfect for all situations.

It should be an open market choice for each individual to decide what's "best" for their own situation.

The greatest contention comes when the concept of EVs is foisted with mandates. As if an "all in" answer is the best for everyone. Nothing could be further from the truth.

That Toyota is interpreting their data to indicate that EVs will max out at "X"% of the market is completely normal; all companies look at marketshare and market projections. Generally, their success in the overall markets would indicate they do a good job of knowing what, when and how much of something to produce.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

In a previous post I mentioned the area I lived in (lower Dutchess Cty, NY) was ripe for charging infrastructure but overall rather lacking. I questioned barriers to entry or ROI simply not high enough for businesses to invest. I believe that was two days ago. On the news of all places, this morning I heard a snippet stating Toyota CEO from Japan reports EV's max out at 30% of the overall vehicle market. Now that makes sense to me.

EV's are not for me in my current driving habits or geographical location. I could see the utility if I were urban. But I'm not. More I learn the more I'll stay away but no issues if EV's work for you. Not a bash here as I won't spend my money on one but to each their own. EV's don't hinder me in any way just the possibility of Govt mandating them.

EVs Will Max Out At 30 Percent Market Share: Toyota Chairman

Also, online used car retailer Vroom is dead, and Boeing may not hit its production goals because of recent issues.

jalopnik.com

It's one thing for many of us to say EV sales have cooled significantly or no way EV's are more popular than ever; another when a business titan has these words to say.

I'm assuming the CEO is speaking about the world market rather than a market in a specific country. Remember the translon to EV's is borne out of the desire to reduce CO emissions which will allegedly help prevent the 1.5C temp spike in global temperatures. Some countries emit significantly more than others on per capita basis. The worse offenders (ex, US, China, Europe) are in the process of transitioning. Perhaps the CEO assumes that's the majority of the 30 percent?

 

[BISCUT]

I'm assuming the CEO is speaking about the world market rather than a market in a specific country. Remember the translon to EV's is borne out of the desire to reduce CO emissions which will allegedly help prevent the 1.5C temp spike in global temperatures. Some countries emit significantly more than others on per capita basis. The worse offenders (ex, US, China, Europe) are in the process of transitioning. Perhaps the CEO assumes that's the majority of the 30 percent?

I made the same assumption as you did that he was speaking of the world market.

We will certainly disagree on the red highlighted portion. After over 40 imminent climate crises claimed by the UN since the late 60s with the earth still spinning along its axis, greener than ever in recorded time, I lean toward a vastly different position. Same boat as digital currency; controlling the masses is how it appears to my noodle. We don't have to hash that out publicly. I respect your posts and if you want to banter back and forth we can but let's do that on PM if you'd like. I'm prone to getting into trouble!

 

[Vitamin Yoda]

It's already been discussed many times here in other threads.

EVs have challenges with extreme cold. So do fossil fuel vehicles, especially diesel fuel if not properly treated. The challenges are unique to the fuel source, but overall no energy is completely without risks.

Well, with all due respect Sir, Diesel powered personal vehicles are not common place in the United States, however they are in Europe. I can tell you from experience that they can be used just fine all over Europe, including norther Europe, in the harshest of winter conditions. Either the Diesel fuel is blended correctly with the right additives so that your Diesel fuel doesn't gel up on you, or you can add anti-gel to your fuel tank. The same goes for big rigs here in the US & Canada. Otherwise, we wouldn't get any goods delivered during the winter months. And the best part about this is that in winter you will get exactly the same energy content from Diesel fuel as you will in summer, or any other time of the year. The same cannot be said about EVs. Worse, if you drive an EV, in winter, up to 20% of your battery, or sometimes even more, is used up to keep the temperature up to a barely acceptable level. In an ICE vehicle, heating the inside of the vehicle is a byproduct of cooling the engine. The drawbacks of EVs can't even be compared to Diesel powered vehicles, as the Diesel hurdles can be easily overcome. Gasoline engines? Not much of an issue in winter.

 

[burbguy82]

I really dislike how it always seems to boil down to EV vs ICE. Both have benefits and both have lifestyles they suit well and visa versa. No one should be forced to buy either one is my main opinion.

Agreed.

Of course that I think is the stance that most have. I feel, perhaps like some, like the EV is being crammed down my throat. The big 3 saying that they are going "all EV by 20##", the endless media hype and celebrity endorsements, and so on. It should be a choice, but if all they have is EVs, then there is no choice, in new at least.

I wonder how well these EVs will last in salt laden roads of the north. Salt wreaks havoc on chassis electrical in those places, would be nice to see how bad it eats a Tesla.

 

[dnewton3]

Well, with all due respect Sir, Diesel powered personal vehicles are not common place in the United States, however they are in Europe. I can tell you from experience that they can be used just fine all over Europe, including norther Europe, in the harshest of winter conditions. Either the Diesel fuel is blended correctly with the right additives so that your Diesel fuel doesn't gel up on you, or you can add anti-gel to your fuel tank. The same goes for big rigs here in the US & Canada. Otherwise, we wouldn't get any goods delivered during the winter months. And the best part about this is that in winter you will get exactly the same energy content from Diesel fuel as you will in summer, or any other time of the year. The same cannot be said about EVs. Worse, if you drive an EV, in winter, up to 20% of your battery, or sometimes even more, is used up to keep the temperature up to a barely acceptable level. In an ICE vehicle, heating the inside of the vehicle is a byproduct of cooling the engine. The drawbacks of EVs can't even be compared to Diesel powered vehicles, as the Diesel hurdles can be easily overcome. Gasoline engines? Not much of an issue in winter.

I would agree that diesel powered cars are not common in the US. Diesel powered trucks (even light duty trucks) are very common in the US. Diesel powered light duty trucks are up 10x in less than a decade for personal use. I don't disagree that fuels such as diesel cannot be easily prep'd for winter conditions. I did identify that in my post ...

if not properly treated.

Diesel and gas engine vehicles also have issues with cranking the engines over in extreme cold; something that does not affect EVs at all.

Allow me to quote myself from the portion you apparently ignored:

The challenges are unique to the fuel source, but overall no energy is completely without risks.

My point (already made) was that ALL vehicles have challenges based on their fuel (energy) source.

EVs have battery issues in extreme temps.
Fossil fuel vehicles have fuel and starting issues in extreme temps.
It's not that these cannot be overcome; they just have to be identified and addressed.
THAT is my point.