Shipping containers piling up at Chinese ports

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GON

GON

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Found this article to discuss alleged slowdown in Chinese exports surprising. Something doesn't add up, not sure exactly what. But with Home Depot mixed earnings report earlier today, something seems askew.

I always put a * from anything being reported from or about China. China is a master at misinformation campaigns. None the less, if the information in this article happens to be accurate, could be a canary in the coalmine indicator about near term economic growth.

 
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Hmm, shipping containers piling up in China? I remember thousands of flatcars parked on rail lines along the Missouri River prior to the 2009 recession. Later an article said shipments were down and BNSF needed a place for excess railcars.

Anyone driving along the Missouri? Report back. :)
 
If you want to predict a recession look how fast the 18 wheelers are driving. They were going 80 six months ago when diesel was more expensive than it is now. Haven't been on the highway lately...
 
eljefino said:
If you want to predict a recession look how fast the 18 wheelers are driving. They were going 80 six months ago when diesel was more expensive than it is now. Haven't been on the highway lately...
Click to expand...
Just made a trip on I-10 … many big rigs in the RH lane below speed limit - some have engine control and GPS tracking of course
 
pbm said:
Ross Perot was right about NAFTA....it sent American jobs south of the border.....which is still better than sending them to our main global adversary.
Click to expand...

Many of the above posts are consistent with some knowledgeable geopolitical forecasters. Lots of those jobs to the south didn't end up there but to Asia. Like so many other times in history, China has failed yet again. They lacked forethought on the 1 child program and for sure ran it far to long. They now have a demographic detrimental to cheap labor that is irreversible. And due to their copycat ways do not possess higher skilled workers at scale. Food, fossil fuels (largely coal and oil) they have little on their own. They know the future is blight and hence the Russian connection alliance. Desperation makes for some ominous times militarily.

By 2030 the region that should see massive manufacturing increases is interior Mexico. They have the demographic, cheap labor, and ability to become at least medium-range skilled. Readily able to transport products to the largest markets north without much fear of pirating. At least much less fear of pirating on the seas required to navigate in the Asian corridors. Time will tell for sure.
 
The Baltic Dry Index is a good measure.


Baltic Exchange Dry Index - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

Baltic Dry decreased 320 points or 15.28% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Baltic Exchange Dry Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on April of 2024.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
 
PimTac said:
The Baltic Dry Index is a good measure.


Baltic Exchange Dry Index - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

Baltic Dry decreased 320 points or 15.28% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Baltic Exchange Dry Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on April of 2024.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
Click to expand...
That’s a undeniably hooge fall. Thanks for the post.
 
BISCUT said:
Many of the above posts are consistent with some knowledgeable geopolitical forecasters. Lots of those jobs to the south didn't end up there but to Asia. Like so many other times in history, China has failed yet again. They lacked forethought on the 1 child program and for sure ran it far to long. They now have a demographic detrimental to cheap labor that is irreversible. And due to their copycat ways do not possess higher skilled workers at scale. Food, fossil fuels (largely coal and oil) they have little on their own. They know the future is blight and hence the Russian connection alliance. Desperation makes for some ominous times militarily.

By 2030 the region that should see massive manufacturing increases is interior Mexico. They have the demographic, cheap labor, and ability to become at least medium-range skilled. Readily able to transport products to the largest markets north without much fear of pirating. At least much less fear of pirating on the seas required to navigate in the Asian corridors. Time will tell for sure.
Click to expand...
We (here in Canada) don't have the same issues with illegal immigration as the US faces, so perhaps I'm not qualified to comment on this. However, it seems to me that good manufacturing jobs in Mexico would lead to an expanded middle class, and less economic pressure to emigrate.

Two things, though - the workers must be paid a good enough wage to want to stay in Mexico, and high standards of quality must be maintained. I used to spec a certain product for my projects at work. When the American company moved its manufacturing to Mexico, we had all sorts of problems with poor quality, wrong orders, and missing parts.
 
We had “experts” tells us for decades how globalization is the only way, now we have “experts” tells us how manufacturing in China is not viable.
i would not however take this as a sign of manufacturing coming back to US. So many hands are in the global manufacturing cookie jar that it is almost impossible to do that. Instead globalization will move to some other slave labor nations. There are still plenty of them around.
 
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