Rapidly developing storm ... or not? Heading for the coast ... seems almost certain, maybe? Updates are rolling in!
- Thread starter alarmguy
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Maybe the rest of the nation but it's been unusually calm on the East Coast. Only one hurricane and although powerful was a very small one.
I think this year has been rather tranquil compared to other years.
Granted in California this past winter was quite remarkable…. And actually extremely needed though. That heavy, heavy snow pack is a tremendous good circumstance in that region.
Tornado season not too bad. Busy here and there but nothing way unusual.
Hurricane season to this point… nothing way unusual. And compared to 2002, 2003 and 2004… really unremarkable actually.
Though that season is clearly not done…
Granted in California this past winter was quite remarkable…. And actually extremely needed though. That heavy, heavy snow pack is a tremendous good circumstance in that region.
Tornado season not too bad. Busy here and there but nothing way unusual.
Hurricane season to this point… nothing way unusual. And compared to 2002, 2003 and 2004… really unremarkable actually.
Though that season is clearly not done…
Interesting change in the track, significant slowdown in forward speed will result in pumping ocean water into Northern Jersey to Long Island Bays.
Guess it will depend on how much wind speed it can hold and more importantly how long it stalls or crawls at a low forward speed.
As previously mentioned being into the middle of the moon phase will help keep flooding less than a full moon. But it can still be significant as the wind field is huge.
Just compare yesterday’s track in the previous post way above this one with todays. I’m not ringing an alarm just discussing as if the track keeps it right at the coast and moving extremely slow it will be pumping ocean water into the NY area.
(Ok now I have to get ready for my dentist appt
)
Guess it will depend on how much wind speed it can hold and more importantly how long it stalls or crawls at a low forward speed.
As previously mentioned being into the middle of the moon phase will help keep flooding less than a full moon. But it can still be significant as the wind field is huge.
Just compare yesterday’s track in the previous post way above this one with todays. I’m not ringing an alarm just discussing as if the track keeps it right at the coast and moving extremely slow it will be pumping ocean water into the NY area.
(Ok now I have to get ready for my dentist appt
)
The NorthEast wind flow and the storm surge are going to cause significant coastal flooding in our area. I’m moving cars this morning…Interesting change in the track, significant slowdown in forward speed will result in pumping ocean water into Northern Jersey to Long Island Bays.
Guess it will depend on how much wind speed it can hold and more importantly how long it stalls or crawls at a low forward speed.
As previously mentioned being into the middle of the moon phase will help keep flooding less than a full moon. But it can still be significant as the wind field is huge.
Just compare yesterday’s track in the previous post way above this one with todays. I’m not ringing an alarm just discussing as if the track keeps it right at the coast and moving extremely slow it will be pumping ocean water into the NY area.
(Ok now I have to get ready for my dentist appt
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I understand completely growing up and spending most my life on Long Island, many in the rest of the country do not understand what strong and stationary northeasterly wind could mean.
It’s about the ocean water not wind damage.
This mornings observation, we live in extreme south eastern coastal area of North Carolina, and then some observation as I leave for the dentist. I’m surprised how breezy it is already.
To others that don’t understand this is not about wind, but this is about stiff wind over the ocean bringing the water into the coast.
The storm is just about going to stall over Virginia, and that will not be good for the New York area, you may luck out in southern Virginia for lack of better words, after a flooding event because it still will be moving slowly up to southern Virginia, but if it stalls north of you, because the counter clockwise direction of the wind will pull the flooding water away from the coast of course, it will be too late after the flood, but at least it will not go on for many cycles.
I'm heading out to the bay house after my coffee double check everything I half ass closed it up Sunday thanks for the update
Good luck it will be an interesting storm track for the next 48 hours or so. Being you have a bay house you know how important it is to not have long-term Northeast winds for multiple tide cycles.
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They will try their very, very best to declare it a Cat 1, even if only for a minute or two.
This isn’t the case today but to people in the Northeast it’s not about hurricanes. It’s about Atlantic ocean storms. Northeast storms are rarely hurricane strength.
Of which the most destructive of all did not even come ashore as a hurricane, it was called super storm Sandy.
When it arrived on the coast of New Jersey it flooded New York City with over 12 feet of a storm surge and in some reports of 14 feet in places of New York City.
Subway tunnels flooded with water and the devastation of the south shore of Long Island and Jersey shore was incredible.
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I don’t think they’ll be much flash flooding. It doesn’t seem to be a lot of rain with the system. I would be more concerned with tidal flooding which I think is 100% a sure thing at this point.
Good news is it’s not a moon tide. But areas that are prone to flooding are gonna get flooded that are on the north side of the storm.
If it sticks to this latest current track and doesn’t go too far inland, it’s gonna spend a long time pumping water up into New York Harbor, all the Long Island and parts of New Jersey. It’s still hard to say until the track is tightened up late Saturday.
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Nah you are wrong here…
4-7inches of very, very heavy rainfall in my area WILL lead to flash flooding. . And I’d bet locally 8 inches in some very localized areas.
We have not been dry at all unlike northwestern Va.
Been a number of Flash Flood warnings in my area in the last 3 months…. Richmond area and south side Hampton Roads and even one just barely southeast of where I live. And those happened just a few weeks ago.
Which is why I stated what I stated.
Especially the way this storm is seemingly setting up. With a moisture corridor aligning along the coastal areas in Va and NC.
Similar to Floyd in 1999. Though no where near as bad as that…. 12-18 inches of rain in that.
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Granted that Sandy storm was technically not a tropical entity at landfall. It had an incoming upper level cold air system pulled into that storms center. Very, very rare circumstance there where the atmosphere had a combination of the northern jet stream and a tropical low pressure. Which actually caused the strong snow event even in the Blue Ridge Mountains northeast of Charlottesville. 12 inches of snow fell at 4,100 feet at a highest peak along Skyline Drive. And 22 inches of snow fell at the Virginia West Virginia state line along route 250. And 3 feet in Snowshoe resort.
I drove up to Wintergreen sky resort the day after landfall and it was 48 degrees east of the resort at 800 feet elevation. It was 28 degrees on top of the mountain at 3,800 feet and snowing with 3 inches of snow on the ground. A very, very steep lapse rate which is very unusual for late October in the mid Atlantic region.
Numerous hurricanes along the area northeast of even Virginia have happened.
Hurricane Carol and Edna in 1954, Hurricane Donna, Hurricane Gloria in 1985, Hurricane Bob in 1991. Hurricane Floyd in 1999. Hurricane Irene and others too.
And the strongest measured hurricane Express Hurricane of 1938 which was a category 3 borderline category 4 hitting Long Island and Connecticut and Rhode Island…. With a massive storm surge approaching 20 feet well ahead of that storm hitting while moving northward at 60 mph…. Killing almost 700 people and doing almost 700 million dollars in 1938 dollars worthy of damage…. Which in today’s money would easily be a whole, whole lot more than that. Only the 1900 Galveston hurricane did more damage in the US.
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FWIW that Cape Hatteras area gets hit by hurricanes about as regularly as South Florida and a few spots on the Gulf coast... Hatteras just sticks out there.. but alot of people tend to claim they got struck by a hurricane when reality is they were just under tropical storm conditions at max.. You can tell where a real hurrcane went versus where the lighter tropical storm went.. just by looking.. but either rating can dump a ton of rain..
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