Poor Hybrid sales threaten 2025 CAFE targets

[stephen9666]

Originally Posted By: HerrStig

So you ride a bike and don't take showers?


In his part of the county the pipes are buried very shallow. Once it gets warm out the "cold" water coming out of your faucet isn't cold at all.

I used to live in the south and I could easily take showers with only the "cold" water turned on during the summers.

 

[friendly_jacek]

Originally Posted By: supton

“We know step-gear transmissions are mechanically more efficient than CVTs, but maybe what we didn’t fully realize is the CVT transmissions could match well with the engines and give us better combined fuel economy due to effectively infinite ratio capability,” Guard says.


they are slow learners. the toyota's hybrid HSI technology squeezes more efficiency from the engine even when the eCVT tranny sometimes operates in less efficient mode (mechanical to generator to electricity to motor to mechanical in parallel to the mechanical planetary gear link). they have been doing that since 1990's

 

[KrisZ]

This is rather good news to me, as I will be looking for a good family sized vehicle that is good on gas. Perhaps Prius V or such and a priced drop would be nice.

 

[A_Harman]

Originally Posted By: Miller88
Isn't it published somewhere that anything past 6 is diminishing returns?


When I went to school for Mechanical Engineering (GMI), the transmission design curriculum said the point of diminishing returns was 7 speeds. 30-some years later, we've got 8 and 9-speed transmissions, with 10 on the way. Diminishing returns, yes, but if an automaker can eke out another 1-2% on drive cycle fuel economy, so be it.

 

[A_Harman]

Originally Posted By: Danno
I am surprised at how low my 2.4L 2013 Sonata can go in the rev range before calling for a downshift.

Top gear lock up, 1,300 rpm at 45 mph is pretty common cruise mode.


Do you find that to be objectionable?

 

[RoadRaceJosh]

Originally Posted By: Miller88
Fuel consumption is not linear to RPM. Especially with GTDI engines that have to overfuel to prevent pinging.

If I were to gear my Focus so that I had to hold my foot to the floor to maintain 65MPH, while at 750RPM ... it's going to get significantly worse fuel economy.

Yes, there are less pumping loses, but there is much more to it than just pumping loses.


I understand that it's not that simple. Do you have the BSFC map for your Focus' engine? That will show what needs to be done to keep it on the peak efficiency "island", but matching that to road/acceleration load, etc is more complex still. I'm curious to know when (load and speed) the over fueling happens.

 

[SwampSurvivor]

I can't find a BSFC chart for my engine. I know that putting the gear ratios in it that the new Cherokee has would negatively affect mileage.

Mine doesn't overfuel, it's not DI. But as soon as a DI engine starts to have spark knock, it will start dumping a lot of fuel in and pull timing.

 

[Kestas]

Originally Posted By: hattaresguy
Typical consumer behavior, when gas prices go up again they will buy fuel efficient cars.

And then they will berate the auto companies for not foreseeing the price spike with "why don't they build a decent fuel-efficient car?" as I've seen a number of times on this forum.

 

[MCompact]

All of this means I have to buy a new/late model V8 ponycar sooner than later- while a 0-60 of 4.5 seconds or less(which just about meets my definition of "fast") is still easily obtainable. A Boss 302 or a 2015 Mustang GT with the Performance package are looking especially good, as is a 2012-up Challenger SRT. I find hybrids that burn gas and rubber make the most sense for me.

 

[rjundi]

This is likely vein but the Hybrid and electrict products that actually achieve high MPG are so dorky/radical looking I would not want to be seen driving one. Part of car ownership is actually being able to look at the vehicle and feeling okay about it.

The products I am mentioning are Prius, BMW iSeries, Volt, Insight, Mits. iXXXX and even Honda Civic Hybrid with dorky wheel covers.

Tesla is the only it seems offering something cool looking(soon) with ultra efficiency. The Lexus CT has nice looks but MPG is nothing that exceptional unless pure city.

 

[MCompact]

Originally Posted By: rjundi
This is likely vein but the Hybrid and electrict products that actually achieve high MPG are so dorky/radical looking I would not want to be seen driving one. Part of car ownership is actually being able to look at the vehicle and feeling okay about it.

The products I am mentioning are Prius, BMW iSeries, Volt, Insight, Mits. iXXXX and even Honda Civic Hybrid with dorky wheel covers.

Tesla is the only it seems offering something cool looking(soon) with ultra efficiency.



I think a lot of hybrid buyers want a bizarre looking car that stands out. It screams "Look at me- I'm saving the planet!"

 

[A_Harman]

Originally Posted By: Miller88
I can't find a BSFC chart for my engine. I know that putting the gear ratios in it that the new Cherokee has would negatively affect mileage.

Mine doesn't overfuel, it's not DI. But as soon as a DI engine starts to have spark knock, it will start dumping a lot of fuel in and pull timing.


Yes, yours does overfuel. Every spark ignition engine goes to over-rich operation at WOT to protect the catalyst. And every SI engine pulls spark when it senses knock.

 

[SwampSurvivor]

Originally Posted By: rjundi
This is likely vein but the Hybrid and electrict products that actually achieve high MPG are so dorky/radical looking I would not want to be seen driving one. Part of car ownership is actually being able to look at the vehicle and feeling okay about it.

The products I am mentioning are Prius, BMW iSeries, Volt, Insight, Mits. iXXXX and even Honda Civic Hybrid with dorky wheel covers.

Tesla is the only it seems offering something cool looking(soon) with ultra efficiency. The Lexus CT has nice looks but MPG is nothing that exceptional unless pure city.




Gets Prius mileage, and is actually fun to drive Here. They are fun to drive with a manual and wind out that little 3 cylinder!

Im waiting for the price of a used one to keep dropping and then I am picking one up


Originally Posted By: A_Harman
Originally Posted By: Miller88
I can't find a BSFC chart for my engine. I know that putting the gear ratios in it that the new Cherokee has would negatively affect mileage.

Mine doesn't overfuel, it's not DI. But as soon as a DI engine starts to have spark knock, it will start dumping a lot of fuel in and pull timing.


Yes, yours does overfuel. Every spark ignition engine goes to over-rich operation at WOT to protect the catalyst. And every SI engine pulls spark when it senses knock.


Yes, but neither to the extent a DI engine would.

 

[A_Harman]

Originally Posted By: Joshua_Skinner
I'm curious to know when (load and speed) the over fueling happens.


I expect that all mainstream automotive engines are different in the details, but for most engines full enrichment can be applied as early as 50% load, and as late as 90% load. At lower engine speeds, enrichment can be delayed, but at higher engine speeds, it is applied at lower load.

An approximate rule that I would put forth for the driver that wants to maximize fuel economy would be to shift no later than 3000 rpm and to not open the throttle more than 75%. This should keep most engines out of enrichment.

And then there are the weird ones:

Some European turbocharged engines never apply enrichment. They stay stoichiometric all the time.
Current F1 engines are rumored to be running lean along the full-load torque curve.
I worked on a lean-burn tubocharged engine at Cummins about 20 years ago that ran 60% lean all the time.

 

[fdcg27]

If fuel prices remain at present levels through 2025, then I expect fuel sippers to remain in low enough demand that 2025 CAFE requirements will not be met.
Does anyone really expect to see this?
Now is the time for anyone wanting a very efficient vehicle to drive for the next ten years to buy one.
Prius actual retail prices are low and things like the Mitsubishi Mirage are practically being given away.
This will all change once fuel prices rebound into the four dollar range, as they inevitably will.
I've been looking at Prius Cs online. Demand is so low that you can still find new 2014 models.
At current fuel prices, a Prius C would provide only minimal fuel cost savings over anything else.
At four bucks a gallon, it would look like a very wise purchase to have made in 2015.

 

[Vuflanovsky]

I don't know about anybody else but I'm paying prices for regular unleaded that are currently hovering between $3.80 and $3.85 per gallon. There's no cheap gas here and it's more expensive than that in some of the metro downtown areas. If I'm doing a 45-50 mile commute each way ( not uncommon here ) a hybrid can be a significant savings considering not only the highway mileage but the amount of stop and go where the high equivalent e-mileage really shines.

A Prius C gets in the neighborhood of 50 mpg combined in the EPA cycle. By comparison, my car will get 38-40 mpg on the highway but city driving/stop & go will take away about 10-12 mpg from that figure. A delta of as much as 20 mpg over approximately 100 miles a day versus my already efficient commuter module is significant. Wouldn't want one myself but it's a misnomer to say that there's not much of a cost savings without comparing such things as what you're using now, type of usage, and factoring in if your gas price is typically as much as .40 to .50/gallon above the national average.

 

[edyvw]

BMW said that they will not go above 8 speeds. However, they just introduced 3-cyl turbo with 136hp to redesigned 3 series in Europe.
I think that these small turbo engiens will get traction in the US not bcs of MPG that much, but bcs of torque.
I drive CC with DSG and 2.0T, I can easily get on HWY 37-40mpg (granted, I live at 6000ft). When I lived in Al and CA, I was getting on HWY some 35-37mpg, and it is blast to drive.
If my wife did not hate station wagons, I would get probably BMW 328Xd. My opinion is that diesels are much better option then hybrids.

 

[hattaresguy]

Originally Posted By: Miller88
Originally Posted By: hattaresguy
Typical consumer behavior, when gas prices go up again they will buy fuel efficient cars.

On the truck forums everyone is about the 3/4 ton now, no one wants a half ton. I remember when fuel prices spiked in 2008 you could buy a brand new 3/4 ton for a song.


I remember back when things slowed down in 2008 and gas prices went through the roof I came across a 2 or 3 year old Suburban with the Vortec 8100 for something stupid like $5000. I realllllllly wanted to buy it ... but had no use for it.


At the time I worked at Lowes and one of my co workers bought a left over 2007 Ram regular cab, 2wd with power windows and locks for...$14,400...same truck is $23,500 today.

 

[hattaresguy]

Originally Posted By: Kestas
Originally Posted By: hattaresguy
Typical consumer behavior, when gas prices go up again they will buy fuel efficient cars.

And then they will berate the auto companies for not foreseeing the price spike with "why don't they build a decent fuel-efficient car?" as I've seen a number of times on this forum.


The average person is a moron, sadly no way around it.

I got looked at weird when I optioned my most recent truck without the Hemi, gas is cheap get the V8 right? I was like over my projected ownership period of 10-15 years who knows, so opt for better fuel mileage!

 

[splinter]

EPA-420-F-12-068
Quote:
The IRS collects the tax directly from the manufacturer or importer of the vehicles. The following table shows the gas guzzler tax rates which have been in effect since January 1, 1991.
The manufacturer or importer must pay this amount for each vehicle that doesn’t meet the minimum fuel economy level of 22.5 mpg.

CAFE is merely another clever method of revenue enhancement.

Except the consumer, of course, ultimately pays the Gas Guzzler tax and more to state and federal coffers with each mile traveled.

www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/guzzler