*Investors Blog*

[SC Maintenance]

trying to catch falling knives

I don't try. I wouldn't buy today, I would wait for the technicals to look better for an entry point, when the technicals start to turn more positive - even if the price action does not. They look pretty bad today.

SBUX is going to take a big hit when the next recession hits

Yes, but I suppose that is a risk for mostly everything except maybe utilities. I am still not convinced of a technical recession with all the money printing. When the leading indicators turn more bearish I am likely to sell everything and go away - but I have been waiting to do that for about 18 months now

 

[SC Maintenance]

The workforce participation numbers would need to change dramatically to mean “much”

Workforce participation amongst men is still pretty terrible.

They publish the labor force participation rate for the civilian labor force, which I don't think includes govco which is bigger than ever, and we definitely have more retirees than ever before. The 25 to 54 male age category is less than it was in the 1960's, but its been about flat for the last 10 years. We have more women in the workforce also, and more older workers, etc.

So I am really not all that sure its as dire as many would like to believe. What I care about is the total number of people working - not there age or gender, and according to the fed that number continues to grow. More workers should equal more income growth?

 

[Dave Hess]

Lots of working age adults don’t want to work if Government pays them to stay home and do nothing.

Some terrible high school teachers tell their students to apply for all the Gov hand outs on their 18th birthday than to encourage them to get a job and enter the workforce.

I became a taxpayer at 15 years old and it was the best decision I had made, my parents did NOT tell me to get a job at Publix Supermarket.

 

[Rmay635703]

They publish the labor force participation rate for the civilian labor force, which I don't think includes govco which is bigger than ever, and we definitely have more retirees than ever before. The 25 to 54 male age category is less than it was in the 1960's, but its been about flat for the last 10 years. We have more women in the workforce also, and more older workers, etc.

So I am really not all that sure its as dire as many would like to believe. What I care about is the total number of people working - not there age or gender, and according to the fed that number continues to grow. More workers should equal more income growth?


View attachment 218074

Raw numbers up number of layabouts up, uncertain if good or bad depending on why participation percentages are permanently down. (2 decade trend)

Stay at home to do childcare is beneficial out for school/training/non-profit can be beneficial if that’s the reason but male percentages down generally is never beneficial

Another question mark is the number of people with multiple in person jobs is down, which generally is bad from a business standpoint but could be good for workers if it helps them have more free time assuming it’s voluntary, I know a few folks who recently started having issues getting enough hours dealing with a steady stream of temporary permanent jobs due to places downsizing shortly after hire.

 

[Warstud]

FWIW : Stan Harley says the cycle low is today 4 /17 plus or minus 3 trading days . And the market high will be on 5/16 .

The Market looks like it closed at 5010 on 4/17 and closed today at 5187 making it a 177 point gain .

 

[SC Maintenance]

Raw numbers up number of layabouts up, uncertain if good or bad depending on why participation percentages are permanently down. (2 decade trend)

Stay at home to do childcare is beneficial out for school/training/non-profit can be beneficial if that’s the reason but male percentages down generally is never beneficial

Another question mark is the number of people with multiple in person jobs is down, which generally is bad from a business standpoint but could be good for workers if it helps them have more free time assuming it’s voluntary, I know a few folks who recently started having issues getting enough hours dealing with a steady stream of temporary permanent jobs due to places downsizing shortly after hire.

Participation rate numbers may be interesting and have social and political consequences, but from a macro economic standpoint if the number of workers in the economy continues to grow, do I really care what the participation rate is, or who is participating? I would suggest not?

 

[Rmay635703]

Participation rate numbers may be interesting and have social and political consequences, but from a macro economic standpoint if the number of workers in the economy continues to grow, do I really care what the participation rate is, or who is participating? I would suggest not?

If the not insignificant subset of people who work multiple jobs become underemployed while some exit total unemployment
it doesn’t ping the participation numbers negatively but does affect the economy and more underemployed individuals drags down spending focusing more cash on poverty products.

I’ve been noticing a reduction in hours available for folks in my circle, that’s how things started in the Bush era.

 

[SC Maintenance]

If the not insignificant subset of people who work multiple jobs become underemployed while some exit total unemployment
it doesn’t ping the participation numbers negatively but does affect the economy and more underemployed individuals drags down spending focusing more cash on poverty products.

I’ve been noticing a reduction in hours available for folks in my circle, that’s how things started in the Bush era.

Reduced hours are certainly bearish, and I have heard that reported in a few places. The real problem we have is current employment numbers are all surveys and make believe anyway - so we really don't know. There also well proven to be a lagging indicator.

The market waits with baited breath and then makes a big move based on the headline for the month, yet we don't really know what the number really was for approximately 3 quarters later. Realize the establishment survey that this is mostly based on is 700K companies, of which only like 1/3 actually respond. So its really not a great sample at all. Its noise.

 

[Warstud]

Looks like INTC (Intel ) caught the bug.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Looks like INTC (Intel ) caught the bug.

Been on my watch list with a number of other items.

Listened to a David Rosenburg interview. He said market priced to perfection - earnings slightly better than expected price does nothing. Miss earnings price plummets. Everything is priced in.

Repost from Kebeissi Letter on X.

 

[Owen Lucas]

Been on my watch list with a number of other items.

Listened to a David Rosenburg interview. He said market priced to perfection - earnings slightly better than expected price does nothing. Miss earnings price plummets. Everything is priced in.

Repost from Kebeissi Letter on X.

View attachment 218398

Is it me or are those pretty large drops for not so horrible news except for CVS?

 

[SC Maintenance]

Is it me or are those pretty large drops for not so horrible news except for CVS?

Yes they are huge drops, but the S&P is trading at huge multiples, so any bad news at all just makes people realize those multiples don't make sense - especially when you can do better on a risk free T-bill. We actually may get a real market back at this rate.

 

[Dave Hess]

Some consumers have maxed out the credit cards and can no longer spend on unnecessary crap like they did in the past.

$8 morning coffee at Starbucks is not necessary.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Some consumers have maxed out the credit cards and can no longer spend on unnecessary crap like they did in the past.

$8 morning coffee at Starbucks is not necessary.

I still contend from my recent visits that will be the last thing they stop buying.

Went to a local one a couple weeks ago - the cashier told us they were backed up in the drive through and online orders and the wait would be about 30 minutes. Not kidding. We were waiting to pick up a kid so we said we would wait and ordered 2 black coffees. The kid then says "oh I can get those right away" and poured 2 cups ($2.99 each plus tax)

Then we sat and watched as wave after wave of younger (but not real young) people walked in, picked up their $8 online order from the counter, and walked back out. It was quite surreal.

 

[Warstud]

Been on my watch list with a number of other items.

Listened to a David Rosenburg interview. He said market priced to perfection - earnings slightly better than expected price does nothing. Miss earnings price plummets. Everything is priced in.

Repost from Kebeissi Letter on X.

View attachment 218398

Intel has fallen from $50 to $30 since January

 

[Dave Hess]

I still contend from my recent visits that will be the last thing they stop buying.

Went to a local one a couple weeks ago - the cashier told us they were backed up in the drive through and online orders and the wait would be about 30 minutes. Not kidding. We were waiting to pick up a kid so we said we would wait and ordered 2 black coffees. The kid then says "oh I can get those right away" and poured 2 cups ($2.99 each plus tax)

Then we sat and watched as wave after wave of younger (but not real young) people walked in, picked up their $8 online order from the counter, and walked back out. It was quite surreal.

Did they get into their Tesla and drive to the yoga studio ?

LOL, just kidding.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Intel has fallen from $50 to $30 since January

Technicals look like they have bottomed. Might be a decent entry point?

 

[Warstud]

Technicals look like they have bottomed. Might be a decent entry point?

It looks like it's heading for $24 again .

 

[Rmay635703]

Technicals look like they have bottomed. Might be a decent entry point?

There have been some analyses that say the recent rather extreme and continued expansions into advanced chips the Chinese never made before
has only hurt and permanently hobbled US technology companies , thus the Mr.T Era tarriffs followed by the current technology sanctions to block Russia have only motivated the Chinese to make their own chips

My view is it was a forgone conclusion and our tarriffs and sanctions likely did nothing besides slightly delay

 

[SC Maintenance]

It looks like it's heading for $24 again .

I am no expert, but the technicals still look like there bottoming to me. I don't see $24 unless there is additional news, or there is already whisper news we don't know about?