interesting trends in crime

[dnewton3]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/lon...ID=ansmsnnews11

Safer to be in NYC than London.


The not so obvious? The success of NYC at reducing murder year-over-year is rooted in good policy and policing, not hype and hysteria. This, IMO, is where the real story exists. It didn't happen overnight. It is a systemic achievement and not an anecdote; it's chronic victory and not acute coincidence. The mass media would have us believe that life is not well and that LEO forces are out of control, but the reality is that good local policy and efforts by individual beat cops are having a positive effect.

 

[clarkflower]

Is it policing or jailing of criminals (found) with guns?
There is some data that suggests when you are tough (7 years no parole) criminals will chose not to carry a gun. That stops impulse killing/shooting which in this country are a huge problem. How many killing are solved in 48 hours. A: Most. This shows there is no planning.

Nicolo Rizzuto (mafia) shot by a sniper. Never caught. Most killing in my area are caught. Most in hours. They get mad or see someone they think did something and blast...in front of 10 people.

This is good> Japan Times Even gangsters live in fear of Japan’s gun laws
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/0...s/#.WsNelojwY2x

A turning point was the Dec. 26, 1997, arrest of Kaneyoshi Kuwata, a boss of the powerful Yamaguchi-gumi gang, for illegal possession of firearms along with one of his henchmen. Acting on a tip, police blocked off all the roads in Tokyo’s glitzy Roppongi district and cornered Kuwata’s convoy of Mercedes. They then searched all the cars and, when they found a pistol in one of them, Kuwata was — in a precedent-setting legal move — arrested as an accomplice on gun-possession charges. After a long court battle, he was sentenced to seven years in prison.

Under current laws, if a low-level yakuza is caught with a gun and bullets that match, he’ll be charged with aggravated possession of firearms and will then face an average seven-year prison term. Simply firing a gun carries a penalty of three years to life. And for the “accomplice” reasons above, a yakuza boss may decide a death sentence is more appropriate if his thug miraculously gets released on bail before going to jail.

One mid-level yakuza (mafia) boss told me, “Having a gun now is like having a time bomb. Do you think any sane person wants to keep one around the house?”

 

[JHZR2]

Originally Posted By: clarkflower
Is it policing or jailing of criminals (found) with guns?



Not entirely sure why youre framing your post or question the way you did. Did you read the first line in the linked article?

"London has overtaken New York City’s murder rate for the first time in contemporary history as the capital has been overwhelmed with a spate of stabbings."

Which in and of itself may not be a "trend" yet - sort of like one test is no test... This stabbing thing was mentioned to be a three year thing, while this was the first time it surpassed NYC.

The important thing WRT the means to the end, and why your commentary is a bit misaligned, is that people will be violent if they want to be violent. They will find a different way. What we are observing is a different way of being violent. So all the laws that you speak of do, is shift the violence from one variety to another. Some of the laws like you describe may help authorities put dangerous criminals away longer/easier. But living someplace (NJ) where transport of guns is outlawed other than by exception, what happens is that it actually undermines the responsible and law abiding population, due to the lack of clarity and extremely poor levels of clarification that are provided. So while criminals still commit crimes, law abiding people are told to handle firearms "at their own peril".

People will be violent and will go out to hurt others, regardless of what laws are on the books. Which comes back to the need for policing and prevention of crime upfront. The urgency and lack of planning of the crimes as you discuss doesnt really help things if someone is stabbed instead of shot.

 

[SeaJay]

I've lived in and around NYC since the second half of the 1970's. It is a quite, quite different town now than it was for the first 15 years I lived here. Over 2,000 murders a year at one point, now in the hundreds. Times Square then was a place you only went if you had to, now it is huge tourist destination.

 

[bbhero]

EXACTLY Dnewton3

That's what this is REALLY all about. The eventuality that those way out there people ideologically speaking will gain enough control to do whatever they want, whenever they want and to do whatever they want to whomever they want... it's about THEIR CONTROL they want to have over the populace. Nothing more to it than that.

 

[clarkflower]

Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Originally Posted By: clarkflower
Is it policing or jailing of criminals (found) with guns?



Not entirely sure why youre framing your post or question the way you did. Did you read the first line in the linked article?

"London has overtaken New York City’s murder rate for the first time in contemporary history as the capital has been overwhelmed with a spate of stabbings."

Which in and of itself may not be a "trend" yet - sort of like one test is no test... This stabbing thing was mentioned to be a three year thing, while this was the first time it surpassed NYC.

The important thing WRT the means to the end, and why your commentary is a bit misaligned, is that people will be violent if they want to be violent. They will find a different way. What we are observing is a different way of being violent. So all the laws that you speak of do, is shift the violence from one variety to another. Some of the laws like you describe may help authorities put dangerous criminals away longer/easier. But living someplace (NJ) where transport of guns is outlawed other than by exception, what happens is that it actually undermines the responsible and law abiding population, due to the lack of clarity and extremely poor levels of clarification that are provided. So while criminals still commit crimes, law abiding people are told to handle firearms "at their own peril".

People will be violent and will go out to hurt others, regardless of what laws are on the books. Which comes back to the need for policing and prevention of crime upfront. The urgency and lack of planning of the crimes as you discuss doesnt really help things if someone is stabbed instead of shot.


1) I am pro law abiding people having guns and I think its [censored] that only rich donors can get a permit to carry in many places
http://www.laweekly.com/news/sheriff-lee-baca-and-the-gun-gift-connection-2612907

2) I think a permit should be good anywhere like my DL

3) I think statistics show a higher fatality rate from being shot than stabbed and I believe its much easier to shoot from a distance than getting in someone face and stabbing them.

4) For a large city NYC has an abnormally low homicide rate which could be explained by tough laws for Criminal Possession of a Firearm vs other cities>In 2006, NYC the mandatory prison sentence was increased to 3.5 years
Chicago >Police, prosecutors call for tougher gun crime sentences-When Bryon Champ (a prior felon) was caught in June 2012 with a loaded semi-automatic pistol, he faced up to seven years in prison.

Instead, a judge sentenced him to boot camp, a four-month incarceration program at the Cook County Jail.

But if police and prosecutors are correct, rehabilitation did not take hold and Champ was back in the neighborhood to offend again, this time not only firing a gun but striking 13 people, including a 3-year-old boy, in a crowded park on a warm late-summer night.According to the Tribune's review of 10 cases of people charged with Class 4 gun charges near Cornell Square Park between 2008 and 2012, most were given probation.

Also in Chicago 1 year may really mean 6 months with "good time"

 

[Claud]

Far and away the biggest deterrent to would=be criminals is the likelihood of being caught and convicted. Not the penalty a conviction brings. London's police force (indeed most UK police forces) is so underfunded and overstretched it can no longer efficiently carry out its crime prevention function.

Claud.

 

[clarkflower]

Re my last

The link for LA shows only 341 people had been granted gun permits in LA. There is another group that seems to have better luck than most in obtaining permits: friends of Lee Baca. Those who've given the sheriff gifts or donated to his campaign are disproportionately represented on the roster of permit holders.
Of those who were denied, only one made a contribution.

Did that make LA safer? https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/02/daily-chart-3

Many cities are the same. Justice Department says NYPD cops traded bribes for gun licenses. https://thinkprogress.org/nypd-gun-license-bribes-f5cf1b00c941/

My city the police chief told me to get a Letter of Rec from a specific lawyer. The lawyer said its $1000.

 

[clarkflower]

Originally Posted By: Claud
Far and away the biggest deterrent to would=be criminals is the likelihood of being caught and convicted. Not the penalty a conviction brings. London's police force (indeed most UK police forces) is so underfunded and overstretched it can no longer efficiently carry out its crime prevention function.

Claud.


I disagree. People have shown (gangmembers) that a month in jail does not deter a criminal from carrying a gun. 7 years does.

 

[clarkflower]

Originally Posted By: SeaJay
I've lived in and around NYC since the second half of the 1970's. It is a quite, quite different town now than it was for the first 15 years I lived here. Over 2,000 murders a year at one point, now in the hundreds. Times Square then was a place you only went if you had to, now it is huge tourist destination.



True.. Also NYC is a big place. I wonder what the homicide rate is in East NY Brownsville vs Manhattan. A large populated safe area can really water down the crime rate.

 

[Driz]

I see no mention of WHO is involved in these knife crimes. That is something it’s been conveniently left off most of the euro crime reporting. Aside from the usual street punks you’ll find that a high percentage is caused by middle eastern migrants. This is exactly the way it is in Germany as the press and the governments strive to keep the story well under wraps. Also you’ll find that these people are treated with absolute kid gloves when it comes to the lesser crimes of thievery, groping ,free riding trains and things of that nature. You notice a lot of that in Germany and nobody bothers them overly. Of course there has been a couple of major major stabbing incidents on trains which is probably the reason this freeriding is ignored. Train personnel well know many of these young Arab guys are armed . The bulk of their violent crime is towards their own people typically in the form of honor killings in maimings with knives or acid in the face fun things like that
The biggest feature of all this is it no one really knows who most of these guys really are because they all ditched their passports before arriving in the idiot Europeans were stupid enough to take them in anyway hand them a monthly check free housing and catered food service. While many are grateful others cause trouble and the new thing is demanding their second and third wives be brought over and bankrolled along with all the other kiddies. You get the picture! Personally I don’t see how any of this could go right and an very thankful that the US kept all but the completely vetted out.

 

[clarkflower]

Originally Posted By: Driz
I see no mention of WHO is involved in these knife crimes. That is something it’s been conveniently left off most of the euro crime reporting. Aside from the usual street punks you’ll find that a high percentage is caused by middle eastern migrants. This is exactly the way it is in Germany as the press and the governments strive to keep the story well under wraps. Also you’ll find that these people are treated with absolute kid gloves when it comes to the lesser crimes of thievery, groping ,free riding trains and things of that nature. You notice a lot of that in Germany and nobody bothers them overly. Of course there has been a couple of major major stabbing incidents on trains which is probably the reason this freeriding is ignored. Train personnel well know many of these young Arab guys are armed . The bulk of their violent crime is towards their own people typically in the form of honor killings in maimings with knives or acid in the face fun things like that
The biggest feature of all this is it no one really knows who most of these guys really are because they all ditched their passports before arriving in the idiot Europeans were stupid enough to take them in anyway hand them a monthly check free housing and catered food service. While many are grateful others cause trouble and the new thing is demanding their second and third wives be brought over and bankrolled along with all the other kiddies. You get the picture! Personally I don’t see how any of this could go right and an very thankful that the US kept all but the completely vetted out.


Uh-oh! I don't know if we are allowed to talk about that.

 

[pandus13]

Can I also bring some to the "is a complex effort"?

My single data point is me owning a rental for 4 years in Southside of Chicago.
The area developed or bring more investors, which either sold the newly renovated houses/apartments to owners, or to owners with vetted tenants.

I'm seeing this as not only Police effort, but also Community effort (both internal, even if limited, and external trough the people investing in previously worn down neighborhoods)

 

[clarkflower]

Originally Posted By: pandus13
Can I also bring some to the "is a complex effort"?

My single data point is me owning a rental for 4 years in Southside of Chicago.
The area developed or bring more investors, which either sold the newly renovated houses/apartments to owners, or to owners with vetted tenants.

I'm seeing this as not only Police effort, but also Community effort (both internal, even if limited, and external trough the people investing in previously worn down neighborhoods)


It is and sadly we can't talk about a lot. You get called names.

I could never kill anyone (who was not coming in my window at 3am)
Why can others? Is it rage.. Lack of empathy. Horrible impulse control

In LA I was always seeing 16 year olds arrested with guns at 3 am.
My 16 year old had to be in at 8 on school nights.

So we blame the NRA but.... I don't want to see kids die

 

[Trav]

Originally Posted By: Driz
I see no mention of WHO is involved in these knife crimes. That is something it’s been conveniently left off most of the euro crime reporting. Aside from the usual street punks you’ll find that a high percentage is caused by middle eastern migrants. This is exactly the way it is in Germany as the press and the governments strive to keep the story well under wraps. Also you’ll find that these people are treated with absolute kid gloves when it comes to the lesser crimes of thievery, groping ,free riding trains and things of that nature. You notice a lot of that in Germany and nobody bothers them overly. Of course there has been a couple of major major stabbing incidents on trains which is probably the reason this freeriding is ignored. Train personnel well know many of these young Arab guys are armed . The bulk of their violent crime is towards their own people typically in the form of honor killings in maimings with knives or acid in the face fun things like that
The biggest feature of all this is it no one really knows who most of these guys really are because they all ditched their passports before arriving in the idiot Europeans were stupid enough to take them in anyway hand them a monthly check free housing and catered food service. While many are grateful others cause trouble and the new thing is demanding their second and third wives be brought over and bankrolled along with all the other kiddies. You get the picture! Personally I don’t see how any of this could go right and an very thankful that the US kept all but the completely vetted out.


That's the 800lb Gorilla in the room that everyone is trying to ignore and ban any conversation about.

 

[Linctex]

Originally Posted By: Trav
That's the 800lb Gorilla in the room that everyone is trying to ignore and ban any conversation about.


Unfortunately..... that’s is we must strive to stay informed.

Being informed is the antidote to ignorance.

 

[mbacfp]

+1 Trav. Great thread.

 

[KrisZ]

You cannot discuss the migrant problem because there is no problem. Case closed. And if you happen to be a victim or know somebody that was a victim of this group, just shut up, EU has much bigger problems at hand, like CO2 or NOX emissions that are killing millions.

 

[Win]

Originally Posted By: clarkflower
.... One mid-level yakuza (mafia) boss told me, “Having a gun now is like having a time bomb. Do you think any sane person wants to keep one around the house?” ...


It's cool that you hang with gun fearing Japanese mobsters, but what does that have to do with London or NYC?

I've represented a lot of criminals. I've never had one that made me think length of potential jail sentence had much, if anything, to do with whatever calculus goes through their head when they're burglazing that store, or whatever other dumb stuff they're doing. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I've never seen any evidence it's true. They just don't research the law before they break it; it's not their thing.

Not that I am in favor of small sentences for bad stuff. Restraint is still one of the four pillars of criminal punishment, and locking 'em up certainly serves that.

In my state, in the absence of mandatory minimums, there are no guarantees as to how much of a sentence will actually be served.

 

[SirTanon]

Originally Posted By: Trav
That's the 800lb Gorilla in the room that everyone is trying to ignore and ban any conversation about.


Sometimes, though, the 800lb Gorilla is completely correct...