Hurricane Ian aims at Tampa in latest model run

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ARCOgraphite

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Anybody in this area? My elderly cousin lives in Sarasota, and she still has to work since she has little social security income.
She works at Publix and does Door Dash Thursday through Sunday evenings - just to make ends meet.

She lives in a condo on the first floor just one mile inland from the Bay, but there is the Siesta Island Key as a good barrier.

Be safe
- Ken
 
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Godspeed, have your supplies ready and hunker down if staying home, or evacuate if asked to do so by authorities. Same goes for folks in the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
 
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We have some relatives who won't be directly in the path, but nearby. Hope everyone gets through unscathed!

Apparently it's common for people to strap down mobile homes?
 
SwampSurvivor said:
We have some relatives who won't be directly in the path, but nearby. Hope everyone gets through unscathed!

Apparently it's common for people to strap down mobile homes?
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I don't know much about mobile homes.
Right now, I think its more of a flooding concern in the Tampa / St Pete area. Major storm surge and over a 1/2 foot of rain in 24 hours. My cousin's condo has a big waterway in the back yard.
If I had a Manufactured home anywhere near predicted land fall, I'd be outta there.

Current path is land fall near Cedar Springs which is a wildlife conservation area and less populated by people.

I asked my Cousin if the condo association has a pallet of sandbags available - but she couldnt lift those unless she filled them in place. Maybe a neighbor could help.

Anybody ever clear G.E silicone calk the door gaps up a foot or so from the threshold on the outside? Wonder of that would do anything beneficial? At least you can pull that stuff off if you make a nice fat bead. But I guess water would seep through the walls if they are anything other than epoxy painted cement blocks.

- Ken
 
alarmguy said:
At this point it’s just media frenzy to keep people tuned in and generate Advertising revenue.
There is no consensus on where this hurricane may eventually make landfall within a 200 or more mile radius
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The models have started to come closer together this morning to a consensus on a hit on the west coast of the peninsula. Even if the eye doesn't hit Tampa Bay directly and hits in the Big Bend it will be just off the coast and pushing a wall of water up the Tampa Bay, a worse case scenario.
 
Don’t miss read what I post, no hurricane is good, but I’m just reading the exaggerated headlines at the moment, even though I never go to CNN today I did to see what kind of exaggeration they have.
Saying this hurricane can be one “never seen in our lifetime” is a joke. It’s forecast to hit the coast as a strong category two, Something Florida is more than capable of handling.
You have to read the fine print which is no fun for mass media and advertising revenue. One in which the national hurricane center government website specifies that the hurricane will encounter shear as it gets close to the Florida coast, at most a very weak three or strong two.

Of course if you live on the coast no matter what this isn’t good news but people knew that when they bought homes on the coast.
And let’s remember it’s still way way way too early to know the path.

I think the rainfall might be a bigger threat to the north Florida area and Georgia
 
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We've got a place on Longboat. I'm really concerned about this one. We've dodged a lot of storms through the years, only had one or two tropical storms 'direct hit'. They are talking about 15' surge....
 
We're watching it closely. We're likely cancelling our vacation plans for this coming weekend as it's projected to make landfall when we're supposed to be there.

Hopefully it doesn't strengthen as much as they say it will.
 
alarmguy said:
Don’t miss read what I post, no hurricane is good, but I’m just reading the exaggerated headlines at the moment, even though I never go to CNN today I did to see what kind of exaggeration they have.
Saying this hurricane can be one “never seen in our lifetime” is a joke. It’s forecast to hit the coast as a strong category two, Something Florida is more than capable of handling.
You have to read the fine print which is no fun for mass media and advertising revenue. One in which the national hurricane center government website specifies that the hurricane will encounter shear as it gets close to the Florida coast, at most a very weak three or strong two.

Of course if you live on the coast no matter what this isn’t good news but people knew that when they bought homes on the coast.
And let’s remember it’s still way way way too early to know the path.

I think the rainfall might be a bigger threat to the north Florida area and Georgia
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Exaggerated? You mean like this?



Aside from the BS artist in the video, I have some friends in Tampa that just left for a relative’s house in Georgia.
 
Pretty much every hurricane is talked up as one "we've never seen in our lifetime", and it's kinda like the boy who cried wolf. They used to not announce it enough and people wouldn't evacuate or take it seriously resulting in a high number of deaths. Now they over sell every hurricane like the next Katrina with many weakening to a cat 1 or even TS by the time it makes landfall. People will eventually get sick of it and start ignoring it. That's when the one we've never seen will actually hit.
 
Even a Cat 1 hurricane can leave neighborhoods without electricity for a week.

Being prepared is the only option for most people. They had 3 days to get ready.
 
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alarmguy said:
At this point it’s just media frenzy to keep people tuned in and generate Advertising revenue.
There is no consensus on where this hurricane may eventually make landfall within a 200 or more mile radius
Click to expand...
Ditto ditto.

I live well inland, where the “real people”live, not on the coasts, where the “beautiful people” live.
If we have a lot of rain, my Cointy (Lake County) is high and no flooding. Although we may have high winds, not as high as landfall.
We live where people evacuate to, not where people evacuate from.

My biggest worry is the power going out. Yesterday, I changed the oil on my generator ( Golden Spectro, been in there 18 years).
Wednesday, I will lay out extension cords inside house to power a Window AC in back room, a fan to blow cooler air from back room into house and refrigerator. That’s all I need until power comes back on.
Worked for me last big hurricane.
 
alarmguy said:
At this point it’s just media frenzy to keep people tuned in and generate Advertising revenue.
There is no consensus on where this hurricane may eventually make landfall within a 200 or more mile radius
Click to expand...
Yes just a stiff breeze and some misting rain on the way.

I think most everyone understands GFS and MWF spaghetti model uncertainty by now. With 2-1/2 days till zero hour I would consider every resource available If I was to be impacted, and I would distill and digest all that info.

Post Michael - The panhandle in 2018. Tyndall AFB got hit hard.
michael mexico beach.jpg



tyndall.jpg
 
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^^^

Looks like Homestead, FL after Hurricane Andrew.

Andrew left us with no electricity for 3 weeks and I was in Coral Gables 20 miles north of Homestead.
 
Dave Hess said:
^^^

Looks like Homestead, FL after Hurricane Andrew.

Andrew left us with no electricity for 3 weeks and I was in Coral Gables 20 miles north of Homestead.
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We must remember Andrew was a Cat 5, this one will be a 2 if it makes landfall sooner rather than later on the west coast a weak 3 maybe.
The longer it stays over water after day 3 it will weaken due to wind shear and dry air if the forecast is correct.
Always a big if, could be a mess if it turns further east in Southern Florida way before Tampa while it is still a powerful three.
No way to really know until about 20 hours before.
 
Plan is to go to work as usual until someone tells me otherwise.

if it is time to leave work or not come or anything like that my boss will let us know.

Yeah I'm in the area. Never been in a hurricane... and I still don't watch a TV or listen to any news.
 
ARCOgraphite said:
Anybody in this area? My elderly cousin lives in Sarasota, and she still has to work since she has little social security income.
She works at Publix and does Door Dash Thursday through Sunday evenings - just to make ends meet.

She lives in a condo on the first floor just one mile inland from the Bay, but there is the Siesta Island Key as a good barrier.

Be safe
- Ken
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Rain Man Ray is in Sarasota and I hope he's going to be all right too.

Seriously though.. I'm going to park my car away from any trees and be very aware of the situation even though I'm going to do everything as normal.. I'm not an idiot, if my people in my support network communicate WE HAVE TO GET OUT OF HERE NOW I am sure we will all be in our cars parked on a highway... so I have food and a full tank. And water. In the car.

Yeah I hope my area doesn't get wrecked.
 
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