Thanks very much for mentioning me. Since I bought 5 vehicles at Carmax this week, I'll try to incorporate those auctions into this analysis as well.
First, there is no 'good time' or 'bad time' to buy. The best thing you can always do is spec out whatever you want well ahead of time and just be patient.
All my Carmax purchases were in Florida this past week. I did have other regions that I looked at as well (Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee), but after doing this for over 20 years I find that more dealers hedge whenever a natural disaster is in their backyard.
Even with that opportunity the market was still super tough. I used to buy in person with very limited competiton on my bread and butter vehicles. Now it's a different story. A guy a thousand miles away, or even overseas in some cases, is bidding against me. It's capitalism incarnate with everyone looking at the same vehicle at the same time.
I will usually stay on a vehicle until the bid price is barely within my comfort zone these days. Cheap is dead. Buying 'quality' and building your knowledge base is really your only chance for success.
If you really still want to study the waves of supply and demand, here's a shorter version.
What's increasing car prices for right now
UAW Strike
Virtual auctions
New car production still hasn't fully recovered
Money laundering operations in the USA and elsewhere
Decision models created by corporate goliaths which, oddly enough, always seem to be a tad optimistic.
Government subsidies for new and used EVs.
What's decreasing car prices for right now
A lot less 'funny money' doled out by the government now that COVID isn't a major economic issue.
Higher interest rates.
Higher repo rates and charge offs, especially for subprime finance companies
More defective CVTs and directinjection engines stuck in wholesale heaven.
More car models that have been discontinued over the last five years.
Falling demand for higher priced EVs that aren't Teslas or Rivian.
Longer model cycles in general for gas powered vehicles.
It's sad that I have to write this all out while nearly the entire automotive media would be forced to censor much of what's listed here. When I co-developed the Long-Term Quality Index I learned real quick that the only news you will ever get to read is good news... unless the bad news (real or otherwise) serves the need of those who sponsors those media sites.
First, there is no 'good time' or 'bad time' to buy. The best thing you can always do is spec out whatever you want well ahead of time and just be patient.
All my Carmax purchases were in Florida this past week. I did have other regions that I looked at as well (Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee), but after doing this for over 20 years I find that more dealers hedge whenever a natural disaster is in their backyard.
Even with that opportunity the market was still super tough. I used to buy in person with very limited competiton on my bread and butter vehicles. Now it's a different story. A guy a thousand miles away, or even overseas in some cases, is bidding against me. It's capitalism incarnate with everyone looking at the same vehicle at the same time.
I will usually stay on a vehicle until the bid price is barely within my comfort zone these days. Cheap is dead. Buying 'quality' and building your knowledge base is really your only chance for success.
If you really still want to study the waves of supply and demand, here's a shorter version.
What's increasing car prices for right now
UAW Strike
Virtual auctions
New car production still hasn't fully recovered
Money laundering operations in the USA and elsewhere
Decision models created by corporate goliaths which, oddly enough, always seem to be a tad optimistic.
Government subsidies for new and used EVs.
What's decreasing car prices for right now
A lot less 'funny money' doled out by the government now that COVID isn't a major economic issue.
Higher interest rates.
Higher repo rates and charge offs, especially for subprime finance companies
More defective CVTs and directinjection engines stuck in wholesale heaven.
More car models that have been discontinued over the last five years.
Falling demand for higher priced EVs that aren't Teslas or Rivian.
Longer model cycles in general for gas powered vehicles.
It's sad that I have to write this all out while nearly the entire automotive media would be forced to censor much of what's listed here. When I co-developed the Long-Term Quality Index I learned real quick that the only news you will ever get to read is good news... unless the bad news (real or otherwise) serves the need of those who sponsors those media sites.
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