Article from Forbes discussion on USD collapse

[Pablo]

Well we are shethole nation thanks to certain people and voters. Some people WANT USA to fail, normal. The ideas, though, have never actually succeeded. And they want to be in charge............in their minds. Oh the minds of useful idiots.

Butt the dollar isn't going anywhere soon.

 

[goingplacesanddoingstuff]

I am not an economist or historian, but my opinion is that all the doom and gloom can be based in fact and it still probably doesn’t matter at all in my lifetime.

That being said, 12% of my portfolio is gold and crypto. I’ve made a lot in crypto (and real estate), to the point I’m shopping for a house in cash right now and I’m not even 40. If you’re not in crypto you’re making a huge financial mistake, imo. The name of the game is to set up a recurring buy.

Just like with the stock market, it’s when you start gambling that can get you into trouble.

 

[loneryder]

Some unknown or unimagined event will trigger a collapse of some sort. Look back at the Savings and Loan Crisis or the 08 housing market crash.

 

[mk378]

A lot of the USD's stability has been because it is the only way to buy oil. Over the decades, a lot of excess dollars have been quietly stashed in petro-states' central banks instead of staying out in the wild where they would cause inflation. As the oil era ends, this practice will reverse and those stashed dollars will get spent. At the least that is going to impede the US ability to print more dollars.

This is not something that will happen overnight-- it will take decades-- and it isn't necessarily doom and gloom, but it is something that is going to happen. (And buying gold is not going to help.)

 

[SC Maintenance]

Its all about timing.

Vanguard likes to show this skewed chart that if you bought into the stock market in 2000 and put it in their ETF, you would be rich. While that is true, if you had bought in the 1999 peak it would have taken 13 years - after the GFC - to break even, not even adjusting for inflation.

If you bought at the peak in 1929 it would have taken 30 years.

If you bought an ounce of gold in 1971 for $40, it would now be worth $2000, so 50X

If you bought housing in 1971, the average appreciation is about 15X

According to the BLS - the inflation adjusted $40 from 1971 would be about $310 now - so about 8X.

Time horizons matter is my point.

 

[Passport1]

There is ample historical evidence and reference to let us see where we are headed, if we look. These two books are useful. Ayn Rand's novel 'Atlas Shrugged' (1957) is the instruction manual and George Orwell's 1984 (1949) is the finished product.

 

[raaizin]

I agree.
But on the TV commercials, Chuck Woolery compares gold to CASH (sitting in a safe).
Just that there shows me the commercial is trying to mislead people.

For the average person, Vanguards Index 500 is the way to go.

There is one "news channel" on cable that has some dubious commercials for the gullable

 

[spackard]

Gold isn’t a dense enough currency to get your money out of the country with when SHTF. Diamonds are.
But to me gold is more fungible than diamonds.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Some unknown or unimagined event will trigger a collapse of some sort. Look back at the Savings and Loan Crisis or the 08 housing market crash.

Those were banking blips.

Look at the collapse of the Weimer republic

Or the recent collapse of Venezuela - a formerly wealthy oil producing country where they now stand in food lines.

Or the Asian currency crisis.

Or the collapse of the pound in 1992. The pound was sort of a world reserve currency from 1600 to about 1915.

Currency is a transactional engine, not a store of value. Your better with land or bitcoin or gold or a fractional ownership in Nvidia. Holding cash should be a short term plan.

 

[supton]

Its all about timing.

Vanguard likes to show this skewed chart that if you bought into the stock market in 2000 and put it in their ETF, you would be rich. While that is true, if you had bought in the 1999 peak it would have taken 13 years - after the GFC - to break even, not even adjusting for inflation.

How would it look if you put in $1k in 1998… and another $1k in 1999… and again in 2000… repeat until today?

 

[goingplacesanddoingstuff]

How would it look if you put in $1k in 1998… and another $1k in 1999… and again in 2000… repeat until today?

You could die very rich.

In all seriousness this is a good strategy.

 

[SC Maintenance]

How would it look if you put in $1k in 1998… and another $1k in 1999… and again in 2000… repeat until today?

If you time dollar averaged from 1999 to 2012 you would still be underwater in nominal basis - and way under in real terms.

Which was my point. Timing matters.

If you have 40 years, then yes time dollar averaging the S&P works. But realize the S&P500 type Mutual fund / ETF has been around actually less than 40 years. So your sample size statistically speaking is very small.

 

[eljefino]

Ayn Rand's novel 'Atlas Shrugged' (1957)

Read this, or at least the first "section."

Taggart was complaining about not being able to buy things "at any price."

We aren't there. We just can't get things done at 2009 pricing, which everyone seems to be clinging to, and hoping to return to. Show me something you "can't buy" and I'll show you where you can buy it.

There's a bit of a demographics mismatch-- plenty of skilled trades are working as much as they want, and being paid hansomely to do so.

And there are people working in stagnant industries, not seeing increases, watching the world slip by. Same as it ever was.

Our money is finding its way into the (overvalued?) stock market and foreign wealth holders. Money always finds its way to rich people. It's how the game is rigged. Been this way for a while, too, and it's stable. The amount of dollars actually in meaningful circulation is pretty small.

 

[CKN]

Well we are shethole nation thanks to certain people and voters. Some people WANT USA to fail, normal. The ideas, though, have never actually succeeded. And they want to be in charge............in their minds. Oh the minds of useful idiots.

Butt the dollar isn't going anywhere soon.

News flash-we are going to fail either way come November.......

 

[Pablo]

News flash-we are going to fail either way come November.......

Been in that mode for many years!!

 

[dumkid]

Money is just a piece of paper, the stock market can crash or drop, so if you truly want some assets that can't suddenly depreciate get some friends with the skills you don't have, and then if nobody has money you can at least trade services or help each other out.

Also it's a good idea to store some bottled water and canned grain so if it gets really bad you can at least have some wheat cakes and water for a few months

 

[nickaluch]

Well we are shethole nation thanks to certain people and voters. Some people WANT USA to fail, normal. The ideas, though, have never actually succeeded. And they want to be in charge............in their minds. Oh the minds of useful idiots.

Butt the dollar isn't going anywhere soon.

I think you are being a little bit dramatic USA is the envy of the world the most powerful military and economy. If it was what you think people would be leaving not trying to get in.

 

[supton]

If you time dollar averaged from 1999 to 2012 you would still be underwater in nominal basis - and way under in real terms.

Which was my point. Timing matters.

If you have 40 years, then yes time dollar averaging the S&P works. But realize the S&P500 type Mutual fund / ETF has been around actually less than 40 years. So your sample size statistically speaking is very small.

So timing matters, or can you use time in the market?

25 years is a small sample? seems long to me. Also, laws change, so is history from 100 years ago still as applicable today as say 20 years ago?

 

[14.1 Grms]

I think you are being a little bit dramatic USA is the envy of the world the most powerful military and economy. If it was what you think people would be leaving not trying to get in.

People aren't "moving" here because they're envious of our economy, they're coming because of our..."enforced generosity". Our military is also at its weakest point, both in terms of equipment and skill, since ~2009, and they're having a massive recruiting shortfall (although that's not a US military-only problem, the UK and other countries are seeing the same thing).

I don't know if the USD is going to collapse, but we're past due for another bubble pop due to various reasons, and I think it's going to make the 2009 recession look like a happy, cheery time.

 

[Rmay635703]

Well, with the continued rise in prices might be a hint….

Prices aren’t rising as fast as the 70’s

Now days being an import only nation likely doesn’t help matters though

I agree with this statement, however I think there is some validity in the Treasury issuing $2T in debt (the entire GDP of Canada) in under 200 days, and the fed chairman saying the debt growth is unsustainable. All in peacetime under the best economy ever say some. I don't think either of those has ever happened before.

It was over $5T overnight in 2020 during the unnecessary bailouts of the so called shadow banks.

I’ve stated it before, the effects of that single action will drive a decade of terrible wind out and knee jerk reactions as things keep trying to fail. Very similar to Japans first lost decade.

Only way to solve is to strike fear of god into poorly managed investment agencies and tank the economy in an everything everywhere all at once failure.

It is very likely precious minerals will tank in unison with real estate, currency, bonds and stock all simultaneously because of the stupid that pushed us over the cliff 4 years ago,

What is unique is that all assets are tuned to loose value, no safe holdings in any asset class.