401k in safe funds...time to move????

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Originally Posted By: Pop_Rivit

When you are planning for your future, there should never be a "set it and forget it" option-that's simply foolish. Your investments are something that need to be managed on an ongoing basis, and when a buying opportunity arises (such as 2008-2010) then you should be prepared to invest heavily to take advantage of the market when it returns. The smart investors took advantage of investments when they were on sale at huge discounts, now those investors are reaping the rewards.


The problem with this "managed" approach is that you're engaging in market-timing. Bogleheads will tell you that timing the market is impossible, and a fool's game. You only know in hindsight that 2008-2010 was a buying opportunity. Did you know it then? If you did, you're the only one in the world.
 
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Originally Posted By: Pop_Rivit
Congratulations. You've managed to do just about the wrong thing at every turn with your investment funds.

First off, get yourself a real financial manager, not a discussion forum. Once who can assess your situation, your needs, your goals, and then determine which buckets your money needs to go into and how it should be allocated. For example, if you are retired (or close) you may want 3 buckets: one for immediate access, an intermediate bucket, and a long term bucket. Then you and your financial manager can determine what goes into each bucket-for example, even at retirement your long term bucket can contain higher risk investments. Even if the market does turn down for a bit, you're protected by your immediate and intermediate term buckets, and when the market recovers you'll still have your long term bucket available.

When you are planning for your future, there should never be a "set it and forget it" option-that's simply foolish. Your investments are something that need to be managed on an ongoing basis, and when a buying opportunity arises (such as 2008-2010) then you should be prepared to invest heavily to take advantage of the market when it returns. The smart investors took advantage of investments when they were on sale at huge discounts, now those investors are reaping the rewards.

Originally Posted By: heyu
401 k ,,,safe funds ? --- Nothing is safe , With our country in 19 trillion in debt and counting , someday they will take it all away from everyone and there will be nothing you can do about it , not for me , i have zero debt and know how to save my own coins


Nonsense. I've been hearing that same tripe from the tin foil hat club for decades.


^This. And I had to read thru 2 pages of nonsense to get to it.

Your money and your future are at stake here, get a professional...not some anonymous self important know it all on some web site and forget it. Unless you're managing a few hundred dollars, the amount you make more than covers the expense, you simply cannot do this yourself, nor can anyone who has the time and energy to respond to your silly posts on an even sillier website be all that good.

Grown ups know how to find other grown ups who are better than them at certain things and then happily pay them to help them get to where they need to be. You wouldn't build a car from scratch in your basement, you shouldn't be managing your life savings either.

Geez...
 
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Originally Posted By: gfh77665
There is a lot I don't like about Warren Buffet. His politics, mostly. With that said, though, he is astute with an incredible track record.

Buffet, in his 80'S, holds 90% in an S&P index fund, and holds 10% cash. Wrap your mind around that. "In his 80's"...


Isn't Buffet worth Billions (billions with a capital B), thus 10% of his value in cash would be... way more than needed to sustain him in his last few years?

No offense intended towards the man. Once one has enough put into bonds & stuff that is safe and secure to live on for the rest of their lives--might as well let the rest run high risk, and reap the rewards.
 
Schmoe,

Can you post screenshot of your investment options offered by your employer after removing personal information ?

I'm interested in the options offered to you.


Pop_Rivit,
Many Americans too busy at work, kids and family to manage week to week investments. Set it and ride it out for 25 years is what many do.

I did buy bank stocks after the market crash towards the very bottom.... I agree with having cash for big market buying opportunity.
 
Originally Posted By: JerryBob
Originally Posted By: Pop_Rivit

When you are planning for your future, there should never be a "set it and forget it" option-that's simply foolish. Your investments are something that need to be managed on an ongoing basis, and when a buying opportunity arises (such as 2008-2010) then you should be prepared to invest heavily to take advantage of the market when it returns. The smart investors took advantage of investments when they were on sale at huge discounts, now those investors are reaping the rewards.


The problem with this "managed" approach is that you're engaging in market-timing. Bogleheads will tell you that timing the market is impossible, and a fool's game. You only know in hindsight that 2008-2010 was a buying opportunity. Did you know it then? If you did, you're the only one in the world.


How much does a manager "cost"? Do they take 10% of growth, 10% of assets, work for a set fee, or some sort of mix?

I've always been under the impression that while the managers are better able to make money than I, whatever gains they might make will get siphoned off by them to pay what it costs to have them as a manager.
 
Don't forget to diversify in a way that scales you out of things that have been way too hot (like Biotech in 2015) into things that have been decimated over the past 8 years (companies that produce or manufacture commodities, including energy producers and mining companies). Biotech has been beat down enough that it could be a decent buy again.

Owning stocks/companies/markets in countries whose currencies have been destroyed the past 5-6 years is another way to play it. In other words don't be afraid to look at Canadian, Australian, South American, and African producers/manufacturers. If your "advisor" steers you away from major markets that have been in decline for 6 years, you might want to have them explain that to you. Ags, base metals-steel, sugar-cocoa-cotton, precious metals, oil, nat gas, etc. Freeport McMoran and other mighty industrial producers fell 75-90%. You don't do well by buying high and ignoring beat down sectors. There are numerous ETF's that can give exposure to various sectors of the market. In my mind large cap (DOW), mid cap (S&P500), and small cap (Russell 2000) is not diversifying - those are all minor variations of the same thing. I liked Freeport Mc when it fell to under $4 earlier this year. They produce in copper/base metals, energy, and even precious metals.

Knowledge is important. And so is understanding how cycles move whether they are 6 months, 1 yr, or 6-8 years. They should affect on how you diversify. I think the hardest thing for most investors over the next 3-10 years will be hanging on the money they currently have. Don't discount safety either. Cash sitting in your account is either an investment in the USDollar index or US Treasuries. Nothing is risk-free. And I would say nothing is an investment. The stock market is a giant casino where the big banks, large corporations, and hedge funds control the flow.
 
Originally Posted By: Pop_Rivit
Congratulations. You've managed to do just about the wrong thing at every turn with your investment funds.

First off, get yourself a real financial manager, not a discussion forum. Once who can assess your situation, your needs, your goals, and then determine which buckets your money needs to go into and how it should be allocated. For example, if you are retired (or close) you may want 3 buckets: one for immediate access, an intermediate bucket, and a long term bucket. Then you and your financial manager can determine what goes into each bucket-for example, even at retirement your long term bucket can contain higher risk investments. Even if the market does turn down for a bit, you're protected by your immediate and intermediate term buckets, and when the market recovers you'll still have your long term bucket available.

When you are planning for your future, there should never be a "set it and forget it" option-that's simply foolish. Your investments are something that need to be managed on an ongoing basis, and when a buying opportunity arises (such as 2008-2010) then you should be prepared to invest heavily to take advantage of the market when it returns. The smart investors took advantage of investments when they were on sale at huge discounts, now those investors are reaping the rewards.

Originally Posted By: heyu
401 k ,,,safe funds ? --- Nothing is safe , With our country in 19 trillion in debt and counting , someday they will take it all away from everyone and there will be nothing you can do about it , not for me , i have zero debt and know how to save my own coins


Nonsense. I've been hearing that same tripe from the tin foil hat club for decades.


Pop, ever hear of a book titled "where are the customer's yachts?" - guess who owns them, the financial planners. They make money off your money. Take the time to read one decent, index approach book, and you'll do better than 90% of the investors, manager or not.

Also, you know "bucket" approach is just simply mental accounting, right? It doesn't create money or safety. Its arbitrarily portioning your money. A simple safe withdrawal rate (SWR) approach works fine in the withdrawal stage.

Finally, if the OP had "set it and forget it", then he'd be fine. He wouldn't have sold, he wouldn't be wondering if now is the time to get back in. Messing with your investments is what messes the average investor up. Leaving them alone, especially in 07-09, was the absolute best thing someone could have done.


For anyone trying to glean advice out of this thread: DON'T
Look to Bogleheads.org for answers. You don't go there for oil advice, so don't look here for investing answers. Find them yourself.
 
Originally Posted By: supton

How much does a manager "cost"? Do they take 10% of growth, 10% of assets, work for a set fee, or some sort of mix?

I've always been under the impression that while the managers are better able to make money than I, whatever gains they might make will get siphoned off by them to pay what it costs to have them as a manager.


When he says "need to be managed on a on-going basis", and to strike when there is a buying opportunity, that sounds to me like HE is managing his portfolio. The big boys love guys like him. Unless you have enough to invest in a hedge fund, most of us cannot afford an active manager, apart from a mutual fund. Most managers don't beat the indexes anyway. Look it up. It's a fact.

"The best way to make a small fortune is to start with a large one, and manage it yourself."
 
I make my living off the market, for the most part. I am expecting to see another pull back like when you moved your funds originally. You feel that you are on the opposite side of every move because you are a participant in the tail end of sentiment. Knowing this, expressing that you want to move your money back could be a good indication that the market is going to drop soon.

Be right back, buying SDS. j/k.

2016 will be tumultuous, wait until there is another correction.
 
Gasbuggy,

I hear TRMP is a great stock, also pays good dividends every month.
wink.gif



OT:
What people fail to realize is that every 401K or TSP has different investment choices with different fees. My nephew works for AutoZone and a Baron Small Cap fund has a crazy expense ratio of 1.3%.
I have a US Small Cap index (Russell 2000) with an expense ratio of 0.04% , same for Mid Cap. Large Cap is 0.01% I'm not kidding or got my numbers wrong.

It's difficult to compare a 401K to another 401K, there's just too many variables that makes it an apples to oranges comparison and asked to see the OP's investment options.
 
The way I like to approach it is with a target asset allocation. Say I'm 80% stocks and 20% bonds. Whatever is going up, you may need to sell some and buy what is not doing quite as well.

I adjust about every 6 months to get to my target allocation.

I'm also a firm believer in index funds. It's hard to beat the market. I think 3/4's of all mutual funds fail to beat the index, so I put most of my domestic stock money into an S&P500 index fund.

I own some international index funds as well, about 5% in precious metals, etc.

If something is too high or too low it get adjusted when I'm rebalancing the portfolio.
 
Originally Posted By: javacontour
I'm also a firm believer in index funds. It's hard to beat the market. I think 3/4's of all mutual funds fail to beat the index, so I put most of my domestic stock money into an S&P500 index fund.


Agreed! Actually, how badly index fund beat other "actively managed" mutual funds depends on the time frame for the comparison.

Active funds are a losing bet, and it just gets worse as the time frame gets larger. Check out the data...
Quote:
Vanguard index funds are better than...
  1. 77% of active funds over a 12 month period.
  2. 85% of active funds over a 3 year period.
  3. 91% of active funds over a 10 year period.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/fund-performance-082014?SYND=RSS&Channel=AN

Index funds get better and better over time! I vaguely recall reading that index funds go to 97-98% better after 25 years or so.
 
Originally Posted By: JerryBob
As the others have said, what bitog is to oil, bogleheads is to finance. They'll tell you that if you can stomach the risk, buy, hold, and don't peek at the balance, and tune out the news.

It worked for me for the last 32 years. I watched in amusement, and held steady, as my 401k was cut in half in 2008/2009. Very happy I did. I am happily retired as of Jan 1.


Oddly enough, lots of people on bogleheads.org forums have asked for advice about oil and oil changes. People ask questions of people they trust on forums they trust.

All of these are boglehead.org forum oil change discussions...

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=65514
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=150272
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=170190
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=33275
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=102320
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=116504
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=171714
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=142892
 
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Originally Posted By: Mr Nice
Gasbuggy,

I hear TRMP is a great stock, also pays good dividends every month.
wink.gif





Might have to swap my 8% BP shares for it. LOL
 
Originally Posted By: surfstar
....Finally, if the OP had "set it and forget it", then he'd be fine. He wouldn't have sold, he wouldn't be wondering if now is the time to get back in. Messing with your investments is what messes the average investor up. Leaving them alone, especially in 07-09, was the absolute best thing someone could have done....


Only in 8 year hindsight is it easy to say it was the "absolute best thing" to be done. That means holding on through a 45% draw down (Dow dropped from 12,100 to 6,600 from Oct 2007 to March 2009). Not many investors have the gumption to do it, especially the final crunch from Sept 2008 - March 2009. All the markets gave some pretty clear topping signs in 2007 and into early 2008. The absolute best thing would have been to take something off the table after making nice profits from 2003-2007, 1/4 to 1/2 for example. There will be another 45% draw down in our future. Let's see how many hold on for that one because it worked out previously from 2007-2015. This all assumes that the major market cycle from 1894-201X continues to chug along. Fwiw, real estate on cue reached a 52 year top 2007. It's going to take a lot more than just 9 years to correct a 52 year run up (I'd expect 15-26 years). I seriously doubt those glory "baby boomer" years will be repeated from 2016-2033.
 
yeah, it's TSP. I'm 52 looking at retirement less than 10 years. We can only change our funds twice a month. Basically, you can dump into the S&P 500, Dow completion total stock market index, morgan Stanley capital international EAFE index, Barclays capital US aggregate bond index or nonmarketable US treasure securities that will not lose money....last year it was at 2.04%.
 
Originally Posted By: WillsYoda

Oddly enough, lots of people on bogleheads.org forums have asked for advice about oil and oil changes. People ask questions of people they trust on forums they trust.

All of these are boglehead.org forum oil change discussions...


I've seen oil discussions on bogleheads, and they're pretty savvy there. I'll bet they get their info from bitog, cuz it tracks pretty closely to what you read here.

Maybe they should just merge the two sites, and save power and CPU costs.
 
Originally Posted By: Schmoe
yeah, it's TSP. I'm 52 looking at retirement less than 10 years. We can only change our funds twice a month. Basically, you can dump into the S&P 500, Dow completion total stock market index, morgan Stanley capital international EAFE index, Barclays capital US aggregate bond index or nonmarketable US treasure securities that will not lose money....last year it was at 2.04%.



I do not care for those options. Can you roll it over to Fidelity or another large brokerage shop?
 
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