2024 Macro single family home prices prediction

I would take one of these factory built ones over a lot of shoddy local construction I have seen. Problem is everyone wants custom.

Its to a degree like the Sears homes of the past - many of which still stand.

Shoddy Construction ???
*LOL* Oh yes for sure!!
Good news is when buying new you get a year to find all the defects, we are at 9 months now, they are still doing warranty work, almost done. Next week that have to remove the pantry door and reframe it because it is slanted *LOL*
I am most likely going to get a home inspection too, if there are any issues, I just hand the papers to the builder to fix before the warranty ends.
Our roof leak was fixed, living room ceiling repaired, 2 car driveway was replaced, thermostat was moved as a favor as I wanted an aquarium on that wall and the thermostat was a little bit too much towards the center wall, proper tech wiring that was left out was installed, various kitchen draws in our gourmet kitchen were replaced, water heater plumbing installation replaced, missing tech jack was installed, last one was behind the tiled wall in the kitchen*LOL*

All in all though, we still love the house, the key is if the builder is reputable they will be back and back again until things are correct.
We honestly loved our last home too, it was a large home, took DR Horton almost two years to get everything the way it should be but you know what? They did it and everything we wanted done.
Current home? Same thing, this time Lennar. Their warranty department is AMAZING, scan the QR code inside the kitchen cabinet, using the drop downs, select what is wrong and you can go on forever with things wrong. Then you will get a text at best time to call you, once they call, they do a video call with you and go over everything.
Once that is done, the local community warranty guy contacts you with appt times for repairs. The community guys are great.
Now this is KEY POINT. NOT ONCE, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER did they deny us any work we wanted done. Not once. For goodness sakes we got our entire two car driveway torn up and replaced, not one bit of resistance.

SO this is why I prefer production builders vs custom, first reason is the custom has much the same workers as the production, second reason is, the custom builder can tell you to take a hike if they dont agree with something, the production builder wont, or better said, never in the two homes we had built, including this one that we have been in since 2023 have we been met with any resistance on any requests. Being your in SC I am sure you know, the value is there with production homes, under it all, they are still 2x4's 2x6's and trusses. Plus you end up in completed communities with amenities.

My neighbors house, they had to lift the roof 3 inches on one side that over hangs the patio because it was slanted, another neighbor, they just tore down his great room wall because when he turned on his gas fireplace, the CO detector shut it off (built in safety device) Installer forgot to remove a packing plate and the flue was blocked.
Two homes down the block had all the hardwood floors replaced because whoever installed them that day didnt do it properly.

I just like big builders, small guys scare me, last crash in 2008 some of the small guys took off with the peoples money, no house and unfinished homes that were never completed. But our company DR Horton at the time, continued on and was there for all the warranty work too even if it took them forever to get it done, they got it done.
 
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GON, addressing your opening comments on the Prescott/Prescott Valley RE market as we live there. Prescott Valley average RE selling price was $440k and time on market as of 11/23 was listed from 43 to 57 days depending on the source. We can confirm the time on market in our development, one nearby was 76 days before the sale pending sign went up. The property you reference for $899k is obviously at the higher end of the market and probably not representative of the overall situation. I don't really understand what you mean by $899k base price and $1.3m closing price, I can't believe a property bid up $400k over listing price. Do you mean it was optioned up to $1.3m?

Our property value increased 90% from when we bought 5/18 to the high point then dropped 10% then stabilized. Arizona RE affordability depends on where the buyer is coming from. Still dirt cheap if coming from Cali, (hear it all the time) not so much if coming from other areas.
The question Jeff, is if you would buy your home today in the Prescott region for its current forecasted price, assuming your down payment was static from when you purchased in 2018? would the nearly doubling of the selling price of your home still get you to sign the Buyer's contract?

Th $899k list price for new construction was to draw attention to the home. Once it has "upgrades" that almost every new construction home in the $800k+ range expects, the actual closing price on the home is $1.3 million. Yes, 400k difference. Our Daughter bought new construction in a subdivision outside of Denver three years ago. Just to update the floors from laminate to engineered wood was $45k USD. It doesn't take long to get $400k in upgrades for what I suspect are California targeted buyers.

When comparing prices in your subdivision, I would want to know how many are on the market? Having a very small quantity on the market can skew the statistics. what if the only houses in your subdivision have the worst lots, cats that went the bathroom on the carpets, cooked daily with curry? When an ample number of homes are for sale in a sub division, the statics become more relevant.

What I am seeing in AZ, and including the numbers in your area, is that prices in your area have become high enough, that buyers with smaller budgets (like me) are heading to lower cost areas of Arizona such as Rio Rico and Douglas. The properties in those towns and counties are selling at what I suspect are record high prices today, and they are in fact selling.
 
Ironically, this morning, I saw a report that Goldman-Saxxx has predicted a 25% decline in home prices in 2024 for:

Phoenix
Austin
San Jose
San Diego

Ok, after doing some research, it seems the highly educated, highly intelligent Atlanta FOX 5 media mouthpieces can't read, at least they can't read dates. Here is the video I saw this morning-


Here is one of 300k articles from January 2023 stating what the woman said in the video THIS MORNING, in 2024....


Sorry about that....
 
That's not going to happen in any of those markets. I could see some softening in San Jose-but not 25%.
 
Got it on the upgrade deal. When we did this new construction in 2018 our upgrades totaled around $25k and half of that was the double oversize garage. Whatever you want in the house is fine honey can I have the big garage?? ;) (y) I would say we would buy today but our situation isn't typical, we owned the former property so the loan on this one wasn't very big and we did what someone described above, lived on 1 wage and paid it off. I'd assume the former property would have gain value proportionately so a loan today might have been a bit bigger but we would have made it work the same. We aren't seeing any properties in our neighborhoods go under contract in a week or two now so these 45-75 day on market properties can't all have issues like you describe. No doubt it's tough to get into this RE market if you aren't coming from an area with the same or higher RE values. We could not have come from Pa into this market like we did in 2005.

I looked this up last night, Zillow says the average Yavapai County home price is $490k and goes to pending in 30 days. This is skewed up by the extremely high property prices around Sedona and Prescott. The median household income in Yavapai County in 2022 according to Census.gov was $62k. Bankrate.com says this income can afford a $350k property with $50k down. There are 39 properties on Zillow in Prescott Valley under 350, most are mobiles or modulars.
 
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For those contemplating a manufactured home. Remember it may become a depreciating asset depending on where it is around the country. Even the highest quality, expensive manufactured homes take a hit during valuation by a bank. I tell people that for whatever reason, go down the manufactured path ,to get the winter package. Snow tires, undercoating and the heavy duty roof to accommodate larger sized truck tires. lol
 
Awww, that's too bad.

I grew up dirt poor. In the 70's, I was in elementary school, living in a trailer park in Alabama on the north side of Montgomery. I raked pine straw in the winter and mowed the little trailer lot yards for $3 each in the summer. Looked for empty Co-cola bottles your parents threw out of their new car on the side of the road; I'd take them to the grocery store on Saturday when my mother went and cash them in for the deposit, go next door to the drug store or Service Merchandise and buy matchbox cars, fishing lures or something else.

I was raised that I needed to get an education; one that would allow me to obtain a "good" job, that had health insurance, benefits, etc. I also knew that I was poor; my friends at school didn't live like we did. All those people that say they didn't know they were poor growing up, weren't really poor. You d**** well when you are if you have half a brain.

I knew I didn't want to live like I grew up. I wanted all the stuff my friends had. I knew I had to work to get it. Work like a dog. And I did. I'm 52 and I have put in my time. We live in a nice, large home on 10+ acres in an area that will soon be another bustling, over-crowded, over-developed suburb of Atlanta. We won't be here, we will be living in another area that doesn't have street lights either.

If you want something, go to work, make some money and go buy it. If you want some land, figure out how to make the money to buy it. Start now. Yes, you are correct, it's not going to get any cheaper and they don't make any more of it.

When you do, please don't come in here screaming, whining and crying like a little ***** about the property taxes. Those are being collected to pay for stuff for people that don't want to get off their butt and go to work.

I'm not seeing a booming number of people that are out there giving it their best to kill it. I'm seeing a GROWING number of the population that is more interested in face piercings, face, neck and highly visible arm/hand tattoos, going to retail establishments in pajamas, haven't run a comb or brush through their hair, haven't shaved in a month and quite frankly, don't care. These people aren't trying to better themselves. They are just wanting to exist on whatever is handed to them. Their biggest effort is put into ordering from GrubHub, loading up on Redbull, lottery tickets, weed and frozen dinners.

I was right there with you until you dissed frozen dinners...
























😁
 
RE manufactured homes, I would not buy one for an investment. Like someone said, they generally depreciate. Its not necessarily fair, but it is what it is. I like to buy full brick on slab homes only.
 
One of the main reasons why "housing is so expensive today" is that there's not many 25, 30 and 40 year olds wanting to live in a 30 year old house that hasn't been updated and brought up to 2023 standards as far as style, interior colors, kitchen and bath fixtures, countertops and commercial refrigerators.

It's almost like they are entitled to buy a nearly new or recently renovated home at "starter home" prices...
Around here, they want to live anywhere, but there's nothing in their salary range, certainly no starter houses. We're in that jarring "gentrification" where all the rich guys from elsewhere parachute in with well paying remote jobs and it's upsetting the previous economy. Contractors are busy, but there aren't a lot of spec houses being built because the planners don't know what mortgage rates will be in a year or two.
 
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