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#2627336 - 05/15/12 11:20 AM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Drew99GT]
buster Offline


Registered: 11/16/02
Posts: 30302
Loc: NJ
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
I shorted gold and the S&P on Friday. I'm biting my nails. I think precious metals are going to drop at least another 10% before resuming the long term bull run.

It's funny how we complain about how bad things are in the US fiscally/monetarily/economically, but the rest of the world, especially Europe and even China, is WORSE off, so everyone's flooding into the dollar and treasuries.


Yeah just 4 years ago many were screaming about the U.S. becoming the next Greece. In fact, one presidential candidate made that comparison. Except he failed econ 101. The U.S. has it's own sovereign currency, Greece doesn't. Flawed comparison.

And how about all that inflation!?! Don't worry, it's coming. Sometime in the future. You'll see. LOL.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-15...limbs-0-2-.html
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#2627398 - 05/15/12 12:43 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Last_Z]
Drew99GT Offline


Registered: 10/11/02
Posts: 21926
Loc: Colorado Springs
You know what Buster? I'm starting to come around "a little" to your modern monetary theory. In fact, I'm starting to come around to the realization that any precious metal based currency would never work. Doesn't mean we don't need currency and banking reforms or that commodities won't return their long term uptrend and finally bubble out, but in the short term, it looks like deflation (at least in core commodities) is again a bigger threat. I hope that trickles down to the gas pump and the grocery store some time soon.


Edited by Drew99GT (05/15/12 12:45 PM)

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#2627425 - 05/15/12 01:23 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Last_Z]
buster Offline


Registered: 11/16/02
Posts: 30302
Loc: NJ
Cheers2

I think a lot of neo-classical econ is wrong on monetary policy/macro econ. Steve Keen has a great book on this. It centers around economic models that fail to capture how the banking/government sector work in a modern, fiat based economy. There is nothing really new about it. Steve Keen, Hyman Mynsky and many other economists support it. Warren Mosler is a great source for MMT related info. Still a minority view point.

History has shown that banking is often prone to panics, which can wreak havoc on the economy. In the Gilded Age, there was very limited government and no Federal Reserve. There were panics every 6 years and some were pretty bad. A gold standard is just not realistic and it won’t solve anything. There were just as many if not more problems under that system as well.

In this day, a lot of deregulation started in the early 80’s. S&L, Enron, repeal of Glass-Steagall etc. Of course the 2008 crisis. But there is still so much work to be done to reform the system that is apparently still in bad shape. Lack of transparency and dangers remain.

From the late 30's through 1980, financial crises were rare and small.

It's complicated and there is a lot involved.

I think we think we are turning into Greece but reality suggests Japan. Btw, MMT does not suggest you can spend forever without consequences. Inflation will always be a threat. Gets over blown though Imo.
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#2627430 - 05/15/12 01:29 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Last_Z]
buster Offline


Registered: 11/16/02
Posts: 30302
Loc: NJ
http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?opti...mp;jumival=8320



Quote:
Gerald Epstein: J.P. Morgan debacle shows systemic risk unchanged; breaking up big banks, reform Fed and public banking urgently required


Ellen Brown has a lot of good public banking ideas. Jury is still out on this JPM situation.
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#2627495 - 05/15/12 02:54 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Drew99GT]
JHZR2 Offline



Registered: 12/14/02
Posts: 40424
Loc: New Jersey
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
You know what Buster? I'm starting to come around "a little" to your modern monetary theory. In fact, I'm starting to come around to the realization that any precious metal based currency would never work. Doesn't mean we don't need currency and banking reforms or that commodities won't return their long term uptrend and finally bubble out, but in the short term, it looks like deflation (at least in core commodities) is again a bigger threat. I hope that trickles down to the gas pump and the grocery store some time soon.


Given that PMs, besides some relative lack of abundance, are really as arbitrary as anything else, I dont know that their "value" as a currency (besides that it is neat to collect old coins) is that great, so long as free printing of money is disallowed, and if money is printed, it can indeed be hastily reigned back in.

But what PMs, or coal, or any other arbitrary store of value does is provides a relatively consistent valuation point, so that if zeros, or fractions of a zero get printed on the currency, what you are holding is constant. The ratio of currency to the item changes, but the holder of the item still holds the value.

The issue with gold is that supply and demand makes this not as direct, as speculation and desire to acquire the item drives a price structure change that can effectively make the "constant" valuation no longer exist. Then it is just more money chasing less goods, which is inflation all the same.

So then one is playing ratios and lesser evils.

The real money bought in 98 when the central banks were dumping. Its just collecting dust in a safe deposit box someplace. When I worked in that, there were a ton who would buy many ounces each time I saw them. Collectible US $20s in AU/UNC could be had for $400!

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#2627502 - 05/15/12 03:01 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Last_Z]
Drew99GT Offline


Registered: 10/11/02
Posts: 21926
Loc: Colorado Springs
The real smart ones are the ones who bought gold at the start of the treasury market bull run and peak interest rates. I guess that correlates when banks were dumping gold.

I'm not that smart. I caught some of the tail end of the run, but the question remains: load up when it bottoms out this go around? I mean, as part of a well balanced portfolio? LOL

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#2627505 - 05/15/12 03:03 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Last_Z]
JHZR2 Offline



Registered: 12/14/02
Posts: 40424
Loc: New Jersey
Bottom will equal what? I think it was around $298/oz last time...

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#2627510 - 05/15/12 03:11 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: JHZR2]
Drew99GT Offline


Registered: 10/11/02
Posts: 21926
Loc: Colorado Springs
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Bottom will equal what? I think it was around $298/oz last time...


I dunno? Europe's outcome has to be settled. Any talk of more QE or anything else that starts US dollar fear, inflation, and continued low to negative real interest rates will probably kick off another run. Most experts seem to think that's what eventually will happen. But it looks like deflation is coming into play now.

I'm almost tired of trying to mess with it and scramble for a few percent here and there.


Edited by Drew99GT (05/15/12 03:12 PM)

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#2627525 - 05/15/12 03:30 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Last_Z]
buster Offline


Registered: 11/16/02
Posts: 30302
Loc: NJ
Here is my latest prediction: in the future, things will be good and bad.

grin
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#2627634 - 05/15/12 05:58 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Last_Z]
Warstud Offline


Registered: 09/02/05
Posts: 4723
Loc: MIchigan
This is options expiration week so you may want to hold off on buying anything.

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#2627949 - 05/16/12 06:47 AM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Drew99GT]
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 47158
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
I shorted gold and the S&P on Friday. I'm biting my nails.


Way to short the pig!

Surprised no one asked you precisely what you shorted!

You greedy busker.

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#2628108 - 05/16/12 11:02 AM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Last_Z]
buster Offline


Registered: 11/16/02
Posts: 30302
Loc: NJ
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-15/gold-eclipsed-by-dollar-haven-as-goldman-sees-rally.html

“Gold is just another risk asset,” said Michael Aronstein, the president of Marketfield Asset Management in New York, who predicted the 2008 slump that drove commodities down 66 percent in seven months and then the rebound in 2009. “It made you a lot of money if you took the risk eight or 10 years ago. A real safe haven would be a pile of high-denomination Swiss franc or dollar notes, stored in a safety deposit box.”
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#2628227 - 05/16/12 12:56 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Pablo]
Drew99GT Offline


Registered: 10/11/02
Posts: 21926
Loc: Colorado Springs
Originally Posted By: Pablo
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
I shorted gold and the S&P on Friday. I'm biting my nails.


Way to short the pig!

Surprised no one asked you precisely what you shorted!

You greedy busker.


I don't even mess with individual stocks. I just used the bear Profunds S&P 500 ETF SH. Not much. I'm sitting tight in cash mostly. I've noticed it's hard to use ETF metal shorts because many times the spot price will rise in the evening when the ETF is not open!

I don't know what to think; the last time commodities started taking a dump in tandem with equities like this, it was during the market crash in 08.


Edited by Drew99GT (05/16/12 12:56 PM)

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#2628237 - 05/16/12 01:04 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Last_Z]
Drew99GT Offline


Registered: 10/11/02
Posts: 21926
Loc: Colorado Springs
I'm getting out of GLL at the end of today. Surely someone's going to stop the metals bleeding in the very short term.

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#2628244 - 05/16/12 01:10 PM Re: Investors....come in please! [Re: Last_Z]
Hokiefyd Offline


Registered: 06/24/04
Posts: 14505
Loc: Top of Virginia
Is anyone looking at AA? I bought some a while ago at $9.8x, but have held. Now appears to be a significant buy opportunity. I've cashed out of some other equities to position myself for an AA buy. Anyone else think AA is a solid $15 stock in the next few years?

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