Tesla Crushing It - Again

Originally Posted by JHZR2
Originally Posted by ABN_CBT_ENGR
Originally Posted by Dwight_Frye
I am willing to bet that Tesla will be able to provide a 600 mile range by the 2024 model year.

And a charge time that goes from a 20% charge to a 75% charge in 15 minutes.



I'll take that bet because unless they have developed and perfected weapons grade unobtainium with a digital waveform handwavium charger that wont happen with the elements currently on the table regardless of how many investors "believe' in the word technology.


20-75% SOC in 15 minutes is doable. As someone who is involved in the engineering of energy storage systems, so long as that regime is maintained, and thermals are accounted for, I have very little concern. Outside of that range can be a challenge... And note I didnt say anything about energy, just that this SOC range in that time is viable. More energy will need more power and make more heat, and thus a 600 mile version has a good set of other concerns, unless they become so efficient and aerodynamic that the energy consumption in Wh/mile changes drastically too...

For me, Ive driven lots of vehicles with small tanks and relatively short ranges. My old BMW 318 had a small tank, as does my 135i. My 98 S-10 has a small tank and not great MPGs. But what they can all do is get me enough margin over 300 miles to not be concerned with certain trips needing to waste time filling up. And if I did, it was fast.


That's the historical difference between the slow and fast charge. That speed is going to generate excess heat that will degrade the materials of construction even if removed quickly or not. ( just like force feeding is going to choke whether it makes it out the other way or not). I need to see exactly how those percentages are going to be met and at what cost. Specifically in terms to the effect ( long and short) to the battery in terms of additional cost/weight, longevity and safety.
All of those also play a direct part in the ability to deliver that charge ( another heat generator) under say "full load" terms ( not just "riding" but under full load and torque as defined by the motor and its BHP locked rotor requirement)

I can respect and support these vehicles in a market all their own ( and do support the technology and development- don't let there be a question on that at all). I don't directly accuse Tesla per se but many do "promote'" this as the miracle that will save us from ourselves- and simply put, its not and never will be.

What they will have to prove ( and will be challenged) is the area of claims where this is the "replacement" for everything on planet Unicorn.

Some people need these vehicles as a critical tool for making a living- not joy riding with Roxette ( rest her soul). That means a vehicle capable of meeting the requirements on demand through a full range of needs.

I can put a 5 gal can of gas in the back- what about a charge?

What happens when the loaded vehicle requires "X" load to get "Y" torque to get a job done and the battery cant deliver?

Those questions need to be specifically addressed and answered.

I'm not directing or challenging anyone specifically but the working guy who uses his vehicle has to know and be proven of these things or none of the EV's will ever go beyond a certain niche level "toy".
 
I see one Tesla per month on the road. My definition of crushing it, is at least seeing one per week (on average).

It's rare to see VWs here around Metro Detroit Motor City. Yet, Volkswagen sells more passenger vehicles on earth, than anyone else.

Every Volkswagen I see puffs blue smoke out the tailpipe, as it ages. Tesla may encounter a different kind of record. Maybe most accidents or breakdowns, per vehicle sold.
 
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Roadster ? All a joy toy.
DD ? The sedan if you live in the right place and have a M-F job at the same place … you bet !
Long term ? When I see battery powered locomotives on a regular basis … we have arrived at a new era …
 
Originally Posted by 4WD
Roadster ? All a joy toy.
DD ? The sedan if you live in the right place and have a M-F job at the same place … you bet !
Long term ? When I see battery powered locomotives on a regular basis … we have arrived at a new era …


I fully agree and its not the posters here, there is an entire sect out there portraying these things like the "cure all" root juice of old ( as long as we pay for it) when in reality that's a long way from the truth.

I see diesel powered "electric locomotives" literally every day ( and RR tractive methods are the best around for efficiency) but how would a battery do with that? ( and it would probably need 3-4 cars to carry its own weight)

There's clearly a legitimate and proper market for these and i would like to see them there and succeed- beyond that is a different story.

I got fully educated on "green energy" on some OCONUS wind projects- I now know the truth and I don't hesitate to ask "those questions" now.
 
I just spotted a new wind farm about 20 miles from the Gulf … I pulled over and it was clear they have really worked the blade profile in a 3D fashion (since what I saw many years back) … I kept thinking can those contoured blades pitch flat enough for a Cat IV hurricane …
So while they gracefully enjoyed the coastal breezes … That's another test of time … we'll see.
 
Originally Posted by ABN_CBT_ENGR
Originally Posted by 4WD
Roadster ? All a joy toy.
DD ? The sedan if you live in the right place and have a M-F job at the same place … you bet !
Long term ? When I see battery powered locomotives on a regular basis … we have arrived at a new era …


I fully agree and its not the posters here, there is an entire sect out there portraying these things like the "cure all" root juice of old ( as long as we pay for it) when in reality that's a long way from the truth.

I see diesel powered "electric locomotives" literally every day ( and RR tractive methods are the best around for efficiency) but how would a battery do with that? ( and it would probably need 3-4 cars to carry its own weight)

There's clearly a legitimate and proper market for these and i would like to see them there and succeed- beyond that is a different story.

I got fully educated on "green energy" on some OCONUS wind projects- I now know the truth and I don't hesitate to ask "those questions" now.





There are some fleets that could show the way for electric vehicles yet we haven't seen much influx there. UPS, FedEx, municipal public works, USPS, Amazon delivery vans, and on and on.


Instead of a pickup truck Elon should have made a delivery van.
 
Originally Posted by PimTac


There are some fleets that could show the way for electric vehicles yet we haven't seen much influx there. UPS, FedEx, municipal public works, USPS, Amazon delivery vans, and on and on.


Instead of a pickup truck Elon should have made a delivery van.



I believe the reason lies in some of the questions raised by me and others on the battery and requirements.

I suspect this is why that information is not readily available and often skirted because of a lot of inconvenient truths that once "rubber meets road" there will be no way to spin the actual performance.
 
Although it'd be great Tesla doesnt need to hit everyones long trip metrics to be successful.
They only need an 80/20 solution. The closer they get the better they will do.

When chevy was building the volt their research told them that something like 80% of commuter vehicles live within a 42 mile drive one way, or 84 miles a day and they met the one way target with a bit of overhead (50 miles).

A 250+ mile car you can charge at home every night hits this 80/20 metric quite easily.

All the detractors focus on road trips and simply ignore the cars strong suit day to day role as though its doesn't exist.
I get the downsides and agree - it won't replace my 1/2 ton truck, nor is it an exact replacement for my SUV, that said it does have significant impactful benefits.

Being able to charge every night at home and starting each day with a full tank is a big benny.

I live in the mountains so cars get far from their EPA rating during a commute or just running errands.
It takes me 15 min a vehicle to fill up every week, I make a separate trip for each vehicle usually Sunday morn.

Taking one vehicle out of this loop saves me 12.5 hours in a year and 62.5 in 5 years - thats more than a work week of my life I get back.
The older I get the more I value being able to decide how I want to use the time I have left, but thats me.

I've done the commute math on borrowed m3 /p85D /p100 and where I live its about a 50% $ savings in fuel.
Add the fuel to the time and there are definite upsides to the BEV.

ABN is correct you cant put a 5-er in the trunk.
On a towing trip I do this all the time because finding a station where my wagon train fits can be a real pain where a rest stop also becomes a fuel stop.

I cant remember last time I took a 5 er on an SUV or non towing road trip though, one reason is because the CARB has managed to screw up the most basic functionality of something as simple as a gas can. The other reason is I can just stop for gas and dont need it.

What you do get though is a filling station at your house, and quite an economical car for the relative performance.
If you have a solar array it is akin to a tiny refinery that makes a small amount to gas at very low cost for you - no one here has a personal gas supply chain.

If the tradeoff works for you - these things are like go carts and super fun, and Tesla is clearly the leader in the space. America is back on top, and this is awesome to me.

If it doesnt work for you then dont get one - super simple.


UD
 
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by JHZR2

The roadster was a chance to be something pretty awesome. The specs seem something great, but the $200k price tag is just obnoxious. Hopefully they can come up with a variant that does 450-500 miles, and 0-60 in 3s, and sell for $60k. I think that would be a pretty sweet spot for many, and access a wider range of "toy" budget...


Musk designed the Roadster to be the highest performing car in the world regardless of price. In comparison, $200K is a bargain for such a car.
The McLaren 570 starts around $200K and is nearly a second slower in 0 to 60 at 2.7 seconds, for example.

The Model 3 Performance does most of what you ask now except for the range. $55K.


Yeah but its not a roadster
smile.gif


Im partial to coupes and convertibles
smile.gif
 
Originally Posted by Triple_Se7en
I see one Tesla per month on the road. My definition of crushing it, is at least seeing one per week (on average).

It's rare to see VWs here around Metro Detroit Motor City. Yet, Volkswagen sells more passenger vehicles on earth, than anyone else.

Every Volkswagen I see puffs blue smoke out the tailpipe, as it ages. Tesla may encounter a different kind of record. Maybe most accidents or breakdowns, per vehicle sold.

The "crushing it" term is in regard to the Q2 results as compared to analyst's forecasts.
The market seems to agree; TSLA is up $220 since the delivery numbers were announced.
That's crushing it.
 
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Down here I see about 7-8 Teslas a day no joke.

Hospitals are installing charging stations for the doctors with Teslas.


Agree, theyre all over.

In my circles, the "I put down a deposit for a Model 3" when they were first announced, was worn as a matter of pride. The rich liberal folks all over the place around here drive S and the other model as a matter of status and awareness of how green they are. Just like when celebrities all drove prius a few years back to show this... Only now the vehicle is actually large and fancy...

The deposits for the model 3 is why I dont put a ton of confidence in any of this. It was a feelgood, status enriching move. The car is impressive, no doubt, but it was an emotional response. Something better than a prius by which you could show your social circle how caring you are. This is no joke.

When the 400k deposit backlog gets worked out in a few years, then we will see where it goes. The race is one between IC range equivalence, price, fanciness, and sustained production... and the other manufacturers learning lessons and starting to bring forward good product.

BMW and MB dont sell downmarket cars here. For a reason. Tesla doesnt really either (yet at least). The question I think is when they start to build cars for everyone, where will that take them in market recognition and "status"? Will that affect their positioning, or the appetite of their customers? Or will it create such a new wave of backlog that it will take them to a new level, which when bolstered with solar and powerwall, will start to look like an industrial powerhouse that currently they arent?
 
Originally Posted by JHZR2

In my circles, the "I put down a deposit for a Model 3" when they were first announced, was worn as a matter of pride.

Any lux car is a matter of pride. No one need a Corvette, Porsche, Caddy, MBZ, etc.
$60K F-150's to go to the dump? Please...
Truth be told, I am guilty as charged. I do not need our Model 3. Or most of the other cars.

I guess I don't understand your point about the 400K pre-orders. Those are long gone.
But there are 700K truck pre-orders. Go figure.
And the Roadster Founder Series are sold out.

I agree with your point about we will have to see how this pans out.
For now, it has been a wild ride with stock prices, build quality, even getting the Model 3 built.
Just another Great American Car Company changing the world.
 
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The 400K deposits/ pre-orders .....there's a subject. According to the detractors those meant nothing all along and were actually a liability.

Remember how the "analysts" discussed these deposits? There were 3 basic lines spewed endlessly about these.

1. They were all supposed to be cancelled because the car was late - proving Elon was a liar and and a thief the SEC should investigate.

2. Then they were all supposed to be cancelled because the car wasn't 35K anymore. Yet more proof Elon was a charlatan that never accomplished anything and should be sued out of existence for false advertising - nothing but lies.

3. They were meaningless as they were refundable - Tesla was running out of money refunding all the cancellations, Elon should be thrown in jail for taking the money in the first place.
UD
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Down here I see about 7-8 Teslas a day no joke.

Hospitals are installing charging stations for the doctors with Teslas.


I see mostly 3's now whereas all I ever saw before was the odd S or X. The 3 has become quite popular, a client of mine traded his S that he leased in on a 3 that he purchased.

Anybody taking a rip down the 401 will see a ton of them, with our gas prices, the monthly savings are pretty significant.
 
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by JHZR2

In my circles, the "I put down a deposit for a Model 3" when they were first announced, was worn as a matter of pride.

Any lux car is a matter of pride. No one need a Corvette, Porsche, Caddy, MBZ, etc.
$60K F-150's to go to the dump? Please...
Truth be told, I am guilty as charged. I do not need our Model 3. Or most of the other cars.

I guess I don't understand your point about the 400K pre-orders. Those are long gone.
But there are 700K truck pre-orders. Go figure.
And the Roadster Founder Series are sold out.

I agree with your point about we will have to see how this pans out.
For now, it has been a wild ride with stock prices, build quality, even getting the Model 3 built.
Just another Great American Car Company changing the world.


Nah, more like the self-righteous pride, same as celebrities who could afford the fanciest car driving Prius back in the day to make a statement.

Point about the 400k pre orders is that there was a backlog that no other cars had. If you believe Wikipedia, they had like 325k reservations shortly after announcement, and 455k total net reservations.

Did BMW? Mercedes? Toyota? Nope.

So you had this massive set of reservations, indicating a large buying population.

Theyve sold 500k units as of March 2020. We are looking at sales numbers and talking about "crushing it" that was fulfilling a backlog. They make 6000 a week. So they didn't fulfill their backlog (I'm assuming that most folks who put a deposit were relatively serious and did follow through) until a few months ago, and if you consider new interest and folks who had to buy a car for other reasons in recent times, they might only be fulfilling that backlog now.

That's why the 400k is important. They had a backlog - a list of ready, interested buyers wanting to adopt something, which nobody else had. That's now theirs to lose by any number of factors.

The car garnered interest. Nothing wrong with that. It's good. They've managed to build them - no flops.

The question is what will happen when sales stabilize and they move downmarket, plus longevity and lifetime weighs in, and then other vendors' products improve.

A few high profile safety events and the value and demand for these could drop like a rock. Safety isn't an infant mortality thing. Highly combustible gasses are being formed in those cells day by day, use by use, and just from calendar ageing. Will it bite some fraction of owners? Let's hope not.

Originally Posted by UncleDave
The 400K deposits/ pre-orders .....there's a subject. According to the detractors those meant nothing all along and were actually a liability.

Remember how the "analysts" discussed these deposits? There were 3 basic lines spewed endlessly about these.

1. They were all supposed to be cancelled because the car was late - proving Elon was a liar and and a thief the SEC should investigate.

2. Then they were all supposed to be cancelled because the car wasn't 35K anymore. Yet more proof Elon was a charlatan that never accomplished anything and should be sued out of existence for false advertising - nothing but lies.

3. They were meaningless as they were refundable - Tesla was running out of money refunding all the cancellations, Elon should be thrown in jail for taking the money in the first place.
UD


And I'm not making any of those claims. I'm saying that my assumption is most buyers made good on it, and Tesla has been fulfilling those backlogs at 6000/week. We're barely, if even yet out of that backlog, so time will tell if the demand remains.

I don't have a dog in that fight - I have financial exposure to tsla. I may even buy the red one I posted a few pages back at some point. It's neither here nor there. Folks are allowed to be cautious, question stock valuations and sales numbers, and still have interest yet be concerned/not fully a believer. People don't have to be all-in.

It's ok.
 
I wasn't attempting to ascribe those deposit discussion scenarios to you (probably should have mentioned that)

The deposit scenarios, also went hand in hand with the prior 7500 credit as being the main reason the car was selling.

I get the skepticism, there are lots of challenges for this company to overcome.

UD
 
I am not sure your 400K reasoning is correct; however I have no knowledge of the remaining original Model 3 pre-orders.
I think Tesla is closing in on 600K Model 3 deliveries; not sure.
I do know that current demand is slanted towards the Model Y; the other cars have been discounted which never happens.
Lead time is currently being extended because Fremont is shifting deliveries to China and Europe.
The ugly Truck has 400K to 700K pre-orders depending on who is yaking.

By "crushing it" I am referring to Q2 delivery count vs. analyst forecasts. Low 70K forecast to low 90K actual is crushing it. 80K was considered a long shot given the pandemic.
And the market is rewarding TSLA.

As you say, the future will be interesting... Who knows?
 
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Jeff - You start a Tesla thread, everyone argues. You start another one a few weeks later. I get that you're a fan, but, you seem to like the arguing. How many of your BITOG posts are in your Tesla threads? Half?

Honest question: What's the motivation for all these fan-boy threads?

Sincere request: can you start a thread about your ‘68 roadster? Or your 442? I'd love to hear more about them.
 
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