Tesla Crushing It - Again

In summary, Tesla Q2 deliveries best analysts prediction by 26%.
GM, Fiat Chrysler and mighty Toyota deliveries fall by 30%, Nissan by 49%.
Porsche deliveries fall 20% even though they had a new 911 (30% increase I believe).

Their cars are lousy no matter what their owners say (with their $$). What's wrong with these people?
Elon is whack.

The market rewards them 300% YTD in the middle of a horrible pandemic.
Man Tesla is lucky!
 
Originally Posted by jeepman3071
I applaud their innovation and think they are a great company, personally. The only issue I have (which isn't even with Tesla) is people who question why not everyone owns one yet, when the infrastructure isn't enough to support it, at least in the areas I commute and live.


To be fair my commute/daily travel between sites for work is a lot more than most people.


Agree. It's worse than the virtue signaling of celebrities driving Prii a few years back - at least they were economical, and a broad swatch of people could afford them. The Tesla, not so much, and even their sales practice is deceptive, giving a price that speculates on fuel cost savings.

Doesn't mean I wouldn't like one. I may well buy an eV at some point as an extra car. But the pricing needs to be much more reasonable and properly aligned in the segment.

Originally Posted by MrHorspwer
Market cap: The true judge of a corporation's worth.

Nikola, a company with no revenue, no expectation of revenue in the foreseeable future, and no product, has had a market cap larger than Ford, which makes the best selling vehicle in America.

Nikola is literally just an idea in the form of a stock ticker. They're not sure what their first vehicle will be: It might be an electric pickup, but it also might be a fuel cell semi-truck. They're not sure when it will be for sale, but they'll gladly take a deposit on it if you'd like to purchased one.


Yes, that's the crux of why the valuation of these companies is so strange. It's forward looking speculation that I can't see as viable. It's speculation, and in that case, on vapor ware.
 
I am a former Tesla employee. I don't own a Tesla and likely may never, but that is just a matter of practicality for me at least in the forseeable future.

Anyone who invests in Nikola should be prepared to take a good old fashioned financial beating. Investors are expecting it to mirror Tesla but the circumstances are vastly different now than when Tesla started.

Regarding issues with things like paint and body panel fit, they are being addressed. The last few I have looked at were as well put together and finished as any new Lexus. What do you say about American car makers who have been making cars for over 100 years and continue to manufacture cars with major flaws in the engines, transmissions, brakes, electrical systems, ad nauseum.
My last American car, a Camaro had a gap under the bottom of the interior door trim and the sill big enough to stick my finger in. And an engine miss, a leaking seal in the differential and a power window failure in the down position, all within the first 20K miles. That was it for me and GM products.

Have a look at how many millions of Fords, Chevys and Chrysler/Jeep products have been recalled in the last 10 years, and for serious problems.

Tesla will likely qualify for listing on the S&P within the next year. That will open up billions more in investment capital from the various investment houses that hold all the 401K and IRA funds. And they won't be risking that capital on much speculation, but on real market performance.

Tesla cannot be compared to any traditional automaker. Musk's vision is not only to manufacture cars, but all kinds of other innovative products and either sell or license their batteries and software to other automakers. Investment firms like Barron's and Arkk Capital factor all these things in when they predict a stock price, barring any future economic calamity, of over $5000. Arkk even thinks TSLA could reach $15,000 per share if a number of plausible scenarios are met.

I don't give a darn about "SRI". I am a Capitalist dog. My interest in Tesla is rooted only in how much money I may make on my stock in order to fund a comfortable retirement. If TSLA reaches a certain point, I will initiate a sell order to fund some type of exotic internal combustion engined sports car. Just because I have always wanted one and am not getting any younger.
 
Originally Posted by UncleDave


I dont call the cost of a model 3 long range "big money".



Incredible. If there was ever a "Qu'ils mangent de la brioche" statement, it would be that.

[Linked Image]


Theres that deceptive pricing again. OK, so its really a $46k+ car...

[Linked Image]


Yet...

[Linked Image]


And...

[Linked Image]



Originally Posted by JustN89

Right, but you're comparing apples and oranges. No one is dropping roughly $40k on a compact sedan, unless they just absolutely must have a Tesla Model 3. Your Rx400H and Ridgeline are completely in a completely different category. With the exception of the top of the line VW GTI, no other top trim compact car comes within $9k of a base model Model 3.



Precisely. This was part of the discussion a few weeks back - the model 3 was "killing" the executive car segment... But its not the car that an E or 5er buyer would be buying, IMO. Its segmented upmarket, and then these claims are made, which seem just silly and wrong. Granted, BMW hasnt done itself many favors with the 3er, IMO, but compare it in that segment instead... Or in the sporty economy car segment with the GTI, that's more apples to apples. And in those segments, its performance will be a standout feature, with about the same volume and size.

I did just tell my wife Id like this exact car... of course it is again I think deceptive advertising... The 322 mile version does not do 0-60 in 3.2, as the performance model only does 299 miles. For me personally, that 23 miles is actually margin of interest, as its the difference between a potential round trip from my home to DC and back... and needing to stop for charge. My accord hybrid has more space, and can do 2-2.5 round trips without thinking anything about it... On one tank that takes less than 5 minutes to fill.

But to and from work, 18ish miles round trip, this would be fun.

[Linked Image]
 
Hilarious - You could have chosen to price the car without the "incentive", but that wouldn't support your statement that they use deceptive pricing - so instead you post up the "incentive" version. I wish all deception could be clicked off that easy.

So at 46K its 8K less than what KBB has listed for an Electric car.

UD



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An interesting chart showing sales for a range of segments and volumes.





US-Tesla-Model-3-Small-Midsize-Luxury-Car-Sales-2019-CleanTechnica-1.png
 
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Originally Posted by UncleDave
Hilarious - You could have chosen to price the car without the "incentive", but that wouldn't support your statement that they use deceptive pricing - so instead you post up the "incentive" version. I wish all deception could be clicked off that easy.

So at 46K its 8K less than what KBB has listed for an Electric car.

UD



Actually I showed it exactly screen shot from the main page, AND when you click on it. So it shows with and without incentive. So im not misrepresenting anything. It's exactly how Tesla shows it.

Regarding KBB - look at dates. 2018-19? When did the model 3 come out? 2018? There were 400k "deposits" submitted. So of course they were selling all they could, to this day, to clear the backlog (which is why the sales figures aren't to be trusted - there's no equilibrium or steady state), AND driving the costs down at the same time.

But still, the intent of the kbb was to look at more varied vehicle prices than the ev segment - like the compact cars and other vehicles that folks with median income that's less than the price of a new model 3, ie a big fraction of the population... buys. Which is not a Tesla. It is not every mans car, nor will it be any time in the foreseeable future.

Which again is why stock valuation is folly.

Originally Posted by UncleDave
An interesting chart showing sales for a range of segments and volumes.


Did any of those other vehicles have a launch with 400k deposits? So again, we're not out to steady state. Time will tell what real sales are. What we see now is transient.
 
Originally Posted by JHZR2
The 322 mile version does not do 0-60 in 3.2, as the performance model only does 299 miles.


Here in Florida where much travel is at high speeds and on the highways, the Model 3 performance does 220 hwy 75 mph miles to empty. Sooooo, real world 75 mph highway legs never exceed 200 miles. In fact, traffic is often at or over 80 mph. Range decreases even more. I drive the highways a lot. 800-1600 miles per week. It's rare that a highway Tesla passes me. In fact, I've seen it happen only once.

Soooo, not only do they have limited highway range, but most owners limit highway speeds to to right lane slow, in an effort to maximize range.

My typical PBI-SAV trip of 422 miles would require three charge stops, 10, 40 and 30 minutes. My F150 does it nonstop, rental Nissan Altima's do it and half way back on a tank. And they do it at 90.
 
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Originally Posted by JHZR2
Originally Posted by UncleDave
Hilarious - You could have chosen to price the car without the "incentive", but that wouldn't support your statement that they use deceptive pricing - so instead you post up the "incentive" version. I wish all deception could be clicked off that easy.

So at 46K its 8K less than what KBB has listed for an Electric car.

UD



Actually I showed it exactly screen shot from the main page, AND when you click on it. So it shows with and without incentive. So im not misrepresenting anything. It's exactly how Tesla shows it.

Regarding KBB - look at dates. 2018-19? When did the model 3 come out? 2018? There were 400k "deposits" submitted. So of course they were selling all they could, to this day, to clear the backlog (which is why the sales figures aren't to be trusted - there's no equilibrium or steady state), AND driving the costs down at the same time.

But still, the intent of the kbb was to look at more varied vehicle prices than the ev segment - like the compact cars and other vehicles that folks with median income that's less than the price of a new model 3, ie a big fraction of the population... buys. Which is not a Tesla. It is not every mans car, nor will it be any time in the foreseeable future.

Which again is why stock valuation is folly.

Originally Posted by UncleDave
An interesting chart showing sales for a range of segments and volumes.


Did any of those other vehicles have a launch with 400k deposits? So again, we're not out to steady state. Time will tell what real sales are. What we see now is transient.


The very first selector at the top of the quote page looks like this, pretty easy to slide the selector to the left. Its true it defaults to on, but its not really a challenge to slip the switch nor is it hidden in any way.

There is also a base 38 K verison both car with 250 mile of range and 5.3 second 0-60, and 140 MPH top speed - you didnt pick.
So they car can be gotten into for sub 40K - thats a decent amount of performance for 37K.

2020 Q 1 showed similar trend .

Anyone challenging the stock is free to put their money where their mouths are by shorting it.
Plenty of analysts said it was folly at 50 a share.

UD







Screen Shot 2020-07-03 at 3.33.31 PM.png


Screen Shot 2020-07-03 at 3.47.04 PM.png
 
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Originally Posted by UncleDave


The very first selector at the top of the quote page looks like this, pretty easy to slide the selector to the left. Its true it defaults to on, but its not really a challenge to slip the switch nor is it hidden in any way.

There is also a base 38 K verison both car with 250 mile of range and 5.3 second 0-60, and 140 MPH top speed - you didnt pick.
So they car can be gotten into for sub 40K - thats a decent amount of performance for 37K.

2020 Q 1 showed similar trend .

Anyone challenging the stock is free to put their money where their mouths are by shorting it.
Plenty of analysts said it was folly at 50 a share.

UD


The long range was selected because YOU mentioned it.

Originally Posted by UncleDave

I dont call the cost of a model 3 long range "big money".

UD


My comment was relative you you calling it not big money, while it is for 50% of the population.
 
Originally Posted by JHZR2
Originally Posted by UncleDave


The very first selector at the top of the quote page looks like this, pretty easy to slide the selector to the left. Its true it defaults to on, but its not really a challenge to slip the switch nor is it hidden in any way.

There is also a base 38 K verison both car with 250 mile of range and 5.3 second 0-60, and 140 MPH top speed - you didnt pick.
So they car can be gotten into for sub 40K - thats a decent amount of performance for 37K.

2020 Q 1 showed similar trend .

Anyone challenging the stock is free to put their money where their mouths are by shorting it.
Plenty of analysts said it was folly at 50 a share.

UD


The long range was selected because YOU mentioned it.

Originally Posted by UncleDave
[
I dont call the cost of a model 3 long range "big money".

UD


My comment was relative you you calling it not big money, while it is for 50% of the population.



Yes I did I said it anyway - and I still dont think its "big money", for the performance envelope it delivers.
(Im still in shock over the cost of pickups )

I think 38K is a pretty reasonably priced car with that performance as well, and much more attainable .


Looks like it was the number one selling car in any segment in Q1( in california anyway) From at least one source Im always open to 3rd party data.
Depending where eI look I see it #9 or 7 in US.

UD









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Teslas are expensive, no doubt about it. So is a Porsche. The cars have come down since we bought ours.
The "price with incentives" may not be deceptive but it is kinda lame, if you ask me.
These cars are not for everybody. Cujet points this out. I know I live in a bubble with computer lanes, solar panel charging and owning several other vehicles.
For many, the Model 3 is a toy. Again, so is a Porsche.

Today's buyers are early adopters; we are willing to pay the price for EV evolution. I can tell you many of us feel the environmental thing is important.
I also believe a lotta people buy them for the cool factor when they really can't afford them. Just like Porsches.
They might be better off investing in something more lucrative.

But these cars are fun. The are great cars. And getting better. Wait for that Roadster to be released...
 
I am willing to bet that Tesla will be able to provide a 600 mile range by the 2024 model year. And a charge time that goes from a 20% charge to a 75% charge in 15 minutes.
Their new Model C compact model, which will have a target price of under $25K is going to be a huge seller, especially for fleet users like Uber or Lyft drivers or students and commuters who don't have to drive long distances. It should have decent range and a quick recharge time.

Regarding the "folly" of the stock price, if I were to cash out my shares today I would realize profit from just 1 year on those shares equal to about 18 years of my 401K plan, and that was with 10% contributions from my own salary and 6% matching contributions from my employers. If the stock crashed to $200 per share again I wouldn't be hurt but if it exceeds $5000 which is not beyond plausibility I am going to live a very, very comfortable retirement.
 
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That's a big deal when that happens.
Many folks want to get to their destination and back on a tank or a charge …
 
Originally Posted by Dwight_Frye
I am willing to bet that Tesla will be able to provide a 600 mile range by the 2024 model year.

And a charge time that goes from a 20% charge to a 75% charge in 15 minutes.



I'll take that bet because unless they have developed and perfected weapons grade unobtainium with a digital waveform handwavium charger that wont happen with the elements currently on the table regardless of how many investors "believe' in the word technology.
 
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
With the pandemic, forecasters set a delivery number at 72K cars; some were more optimistic.
But 80K seemed a loooong shot considering Silicon Valley shut down before anywhere in the country.

90,650 cars delivered. TSLA is over $1,200 per share; analysts are floating a $2,000 price.
Why didn't I pull the trigger?

Elon is whack. But market cap just blew past Toyota making it the highest value car company in the world.

Not sure why people hate this good American company.
Tesla Q2 Deliveries

I am truly impressed that he's getting things under control for production numbers. Quality is still horrible, but he IS getting units out. Maybe by 2026 or so Tesla will produce something sensible for me to own and I'll give it a try if Mazda/Toyota/Honda don't have something by then.

Why didn't I buy Tesla stock? I wanted more return than it offered, and I don't really have any emotional connections to that. It's about money, to me.
 
Originally Posted by ABN_CBT_ENGR
Originally Posted by Dwight_Frye
I am willing to bet that Tesla will be able to provide a 600 mile range by the 2024 model year.

And a charge time that goes from a 20% charge to a 75% charge in 15 minutes.



I'll take that bet because unless they have developed and perfected weapons grade unobtainium with a digital waveform handwavium charger that wont happen with the elements currently on the table regardless of how many investors "believe' in the word technology.

The unreleased Roadster will have a range of over 600 miles. You can buy a 400 mile range S today (too much $$ for me).
The charge rate is a challenge, but the rate posted here is the sweet spot for charging; the rate of charge is much faster when the batteries are low.

Remember, Tesla has an almost 10 year head start on the other car companies.
So who knows? But it seems the market believes in Tesla. Which is what this post is about.
 
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My SIL has had a Model S for several years now. It's been a great vehicle for her, she mostly just commutes around Denver. I've driven it and [censored] it's fun. I'm a believer. I bought a 6-50R pigtail adapter so she can charge in my shop when she visits
wink.gif


I need at least a shortbed truck for 90% of what I do...if they ever release something like that (maybe even El Camino-esque but AWD of course) I might be interested.....
 
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk

The unreleased Roadster will have a range of over 600 miles. You can buy a 400 mile range S today (too much $$ for me).
The charge rate is a challenge, but the rate posted here is the sweet spot for charging; the rate of charge is much faster when the batteries are low.

Remember, Tesla has an almost 10 year head start on the other car companies.
So who knows? But it seems the market believes
in Tesla. Which is what this post is about.



Like Enron,, Crazy Eddie, MMM and a host of others
 
i think Tesla needs about 5 more years of improvements. They will get so much better by then.
 
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