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Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! #5427999 05/13/20 08:28 AM
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At somewhere around 3AM this morning Darlington Unit 2 was grid-connected, synched up, and commenced ramp-up. Since Unit 3 refurb has been postponed until the fall, all 4 units (3,512MW) will officially be available for the summer peak period. I'm quite excited to see if output is higher than the official 878MW figure; if the new generator and turbine assembly increases it.

[Linked Image]


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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: OVERKILL] #5428003 05/13/20 08:33 AM
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Excellent to hear! Does this mean essentially that all of Ontario’s reactors are running?

Last edited by Snagglefoot; 05/13/20 08:46 AM.

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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: OVERKILL] #5428027 05/13/20 09:01 AM
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I thought the lights were brighter this morning thumbsup


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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: OVERKILL] #5428095 05/13/20 10:06 AM
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Anything to get rid of coal.


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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: OVERKILL] #5428131 05/13/20 10:31 AM
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pffft.....nuclear. Newfangled nonsense. Coal is where it's at! Four units, 820MW, the way the power god's intended. 2-5 years and I retire. The plant is retiring in 2027.

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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: Snagglefoot] #5428179 05/13/20 11:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Snagglefoot
Excellent to hear! Does this mean essentially that all of Ontario’s reactors are running?


We'll have 17 of 18 on for the summer. Bruce 6 is down for refurbishment presently.


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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: Donald] #5428182 05/13/20 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Donald
Anything to get rid of coal.


And we did! Ontario hasn't burned any coal since Bruce units 1 and 2 were returned to service in 2012. about 95% of the electricity needed to eliminate coal in Ontario came from reactivated and refurbished nuclear, 70% from the Bruce A units (~3,200MW) and ~25% from the two Pickering A units (1,030MW).


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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: OVERKILL] #5428346 05/13/20 03:21 PM
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Does this mean enough nuclear and renewable capacity to avoid burning gas as well?

Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: mk378] #5428365 05/13/20 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by mk378
Does this mean enough nuclear and renewable capacity to avoid burning gas as well?


While solar depresses some daytime peaking in the summer, wind is always AWOL when demand is highest; it produces out of phase with demand, so its installed capacity, which is significantly more than Darlington, is wholly irrelevant in a scenario where we are trying to meet that demand. The morning and evening ramps, when solar sods off are met with gas, as well as daytime peaking beyond the installed capacity of nuclear + hydro.

So, to answer your question, no, we will still burn gas this summer to cover for peaking. We would have been far better served building Darlington B than building close to 5,000MW of wind, as that nuclear capacity would have allowed us to eliminate gas, rather than build more of it, which was necessary to accommodate the generation profile of wind.


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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: mk378] #5428380 05/13/20 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by mk378
Does this mean enough nuclear and renewable capacity to avoid burning gas as well?


I saw a news / interview today that someone in the NG industry said NG contract may go negative like oil, because they can't shut them down easily and they are even worse storage friendly than oil.

So I doubt nuclear will gain on gas any time soon, if anything just keeping the existing reactors running but not building new reactors due to volatility.

Originally Posted by OVERKILL
So, to answer your question, no, we will still burn gas this summer to cover for peaking. We would have been far better served building Darlington B than building close to 5,000MW of wind, as that nuclear capacity would have allowed us to eliminate gas, rather than build more of it, which was necessary to accommodate the generation profile of wind.


Eventually as the duck curve gets worse the time of day pricing will happen, and people will change their usage behaviors to adapt. Electric laundry dryer will run off peak, data center will slow down during peak and postpone low cost low priority jobs to off peak hours (i.e. render farm, data mining, etc). Eventually air conditioning will be done with thermal storage (i.e. ice) to either shift the peak or flatten the curve for grid demand.

If money can solve the problem it is not a problem.

Last edited by PandaBear; 05/13/20 04:21 PM.

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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: PandaBear] #5428948 05/14/20 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by PandaBear
Eventually as the duck curve gets worse the time of day pricing will happen, and people will change their usage behaviors to adapt. Electric laundry dryer will run off peak, data center will slow down during peak and postpone low cost low priority jobs to off peak hours (i.e. render farm, data mining, etc). Eventually air conditioning will be done with thermal storage (i.e. ice) to either shift the peak or flatten the curve for grid demand.

If money can solve the problem it is not a problem.


The duck curve is a production of too much embedded solar capacity, it doesn't tie in with wind's absenteeism, which is a wholly separate issue. We already have TOU pricing up here BTW. Moving the peaking around doesn't solve the intermittency issue, or embedded solar driving baseload generators out of the market, though that's not much of an issue up here since we don't have a competitive bid process, almost all generation is on fixed-rate contracts.


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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: OVERKILL] #5428957 05/14/20 09:52 AM
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This AM's update, she's at ~650MW and holding for the time being:

[Linked Image]


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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: OVERKILL] #5429168 05/14/20 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by OVERKILL
The duck curve is a production of too much embedded solar capacity, it doesn't tie in with wind's absenteeism, which is a wholly separate issue. We already have TOU pricing up here BTW. Moving the peaking around doesn't solve the intermittency issue, or embedded solar driving baseload generators out of the market, though that's not much of an issue up here since we don't have a competitive bid process, almost all generation is on fixed-rate contracts.


Money problem can be fixed in the long term, they always do. Technical problem can also be fixed in the long term on the consumption side, when there's enough money involved. I've started hearing hyperscale data center (I think that's Microsoft but I'm sure Amazon is doing it as well) starts experimenting power cost / renewable generation load following, basically throttling and idling capacity when the price is high and only run certain loads when the price is right (on less efficient machines and low priced workloads). Like I said before it will take time for solution to catch up, but to be honest having a TOU pricing based laundry dryer is pretty easy to design (they already have that for AC, and PG&E pay you to install it), just that the price spread isn't enough for most people to get onboard yet.

Last edited by PandaBear; 05/14/20 01:56 PM.

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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: PandaBear] #5429423 05/14/20 08:12 PM
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Originally Posted by PandaBear
Originally Posted by OVERKILL
The duck curve is a production of too much embedded solar capacity, it doesn't tie in with wind's absenteeism, which is a wholly separate issue. We already have TOU pricing up here BTW. Moving the peaking around doesn't solve the intermittency issue, or embedded solar driving baseload generators out of the market, though that's not much of an issue up here since we don't have a competitive bid process, almost all generation is on fixed-rate contracts.


Money problem can be fixed in the long term, they always do. Technical problem can also be fixed in the long term on the consumption side, when there's enough money involved. I've started hearing hyperscale data center (I think that's Microsoft but I'm sure Amazon is doing it as well) starts experimenting power cost / renewable generation load following, basically throttling and idling capacity when the price is high and only run certain loads when the price is right (on less efficient machines and low priced workloads). Like I said before it will take time for solution to catch up, but to be honest having a TOU pricing based laundry dryer is pretty easy to design (they already have that for AC, and PG&E pay you to install it), just that the price spread isn't enough for most people to get onboard yet.


I think the point is, does all of this Mickey Mouse nonsense, chasing the lowest rate, which will shift depending on loads, weather...etc make sense when you have the ability to produce reliable electricity that doesn't require such contortions? Is the goal simply high penetration of renewables or actual low emissions? Because burning gas because you want to run wind turbines isn't achieving the latter, but it sure seems like one [censored] of a way to create all kinds of wild costs and technical problems that impact operating profiles while doing the former smirk

Per your TOU posit, while that sounds quite novel in theory, nobody is going to pile wet laundry into their dryer at 7AM before they shove off to work expecting the dryer to kick on sometime during the day so that they can capitalize on some rate perversion wrought by overzealous installation of solar, that's pie in the sky fantasy that could only come out of California. When we run laundry, it is two or three loads, which means there is human intervention, that doesn't work when off-peak occurs when nobody is home.

It isn't just the price spread that's the issue, it's the impact on the day-to-day things. Paying a premium to do laundry at the time we normally do now because the peak has shifted due to some moronic policy solely focused on its myopic agenda, is only going to get so much traction before people revolt, which is exactly what happened here in Ontario. You can only push people so far before they stop and toss you out on your ear. A solution peddled by charlatans is destined for failure, even if it is technically feasible. "Gas is the new green" is the current mantra, barring the oft cited "storage miracle" which is quite like fusion in that it is always just around the corner. Cold climates, like here, pose yet another problem, as most currently heat with gas and if we want to shift that to electric, you aren't doing that with solar and wind, the former doesn't align with the demand profile (morning and evening ramps) and the latter buggers off for days at a time, which means either perpetual reliance on methane or something else that can reliably fit the bill, unless of course emissions are non-issue, at which point then why aren't we just burning gas for everything?


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Re: Ontario Nuclear update - She's back! [Re: OVERKILL] #5429452 05/14/20 08:50 PM
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The electricity map data for California is currently broken, but I'll use another VRE plugger example, South Australia, and compare it at the present moment to Ontario:
[Linked Image][Linked Image]

It's not very wind in either location right now, or sunny, so can you spot the difference?


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