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Car reliability prediction #5414513 04/27/20 10:55 AM
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Paul_Siu Offline OP
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How do you gauge reliability when you buy a car? In the past,l I have often purchased used vehicle. This often mean there was an existing track record I could look at at least for the years the vehicle was release. Consumer Report and JD power also report findings, but both are based on surveys which may be skewed. For example, may be certain groups of owners may answer survey over another group. Would there be a source from people who repair cars and see what type of issue appear for the past model?

My perception of car reliability like a lot of people are based on past experience with their brand. My parents got several GM cards in the early 80's. They were shall we say terrible. When I eventually scrape enough money to buy a car, I got a Japanese model (I think it was a used Acura Integra, back when they were cheaper). My previous car was a Ford Focus, which actually lasted over 225K miles but did had quite a bit of problems. In some ways, it was still somewhat of an improvement over the original Acura, which require greater maintenance item. Newer cars appear to have longer interval between maintenance. Are there sites on cost of ownerships and such?

Paul

Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: Paul_Siu] #5414515 04/27/20 10:57 AM
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Donald Offline
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The first gauge would be is it a 20 year old Jaguar. If so unreliable.

Beyond that Consumer Reports has great information.

Last edited by Donald; 04/27/20 10:58 AM.

2015 Ford F-250 w/Powerstroke
2016 Subaru Crosstrek CVT (wife's)
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: Paul_Siu] #5414516 04/27/20 10:59 AM
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Quattro Pete Offline
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Originally Posted by Paul_Siu
Are there sites on cost of ownerships and such?

Paul



https://www.edmunds.com/tco.html


2002 530i   2015 Q5 3.0T   2018 Charger SRT
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: Donald] #5414518 04/27/20 11:01 AM
Joined: Oct 2002
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Quattro Pete Offline
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Originally Posted by Donald
The first gauge would be is it a 20 year old Jaguar. If so unreliable.
.

A 20 year old anything has a good potential of being unreliable. smile


2002 530i   2015 Q5 3.0T   2018 Charger SRT
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: Paul_Siu] #5414523 04/27/20 11:12 AM
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JEL01 Offline
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Owner/enthusiast forums for that make and mode are a million times better than any commercial sites. You get real world experiences and find out about all the common issues and what years those occurred, as well as ways to fix those issues.

Caveat that by saying I don’t buy new models and wait a few years for them to get some age/miles on them, i also typically only buy “facelifted” years as they not only change styling but often sneak in little bug and mechanical fixes from the debut years of that car


Cars I maintain:
02 Mercedes CLK430
09 Honda Accord V6
13 Lexus RX350 AWD
02 Toyota Tundra 4x4
18 Lexus GX460
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: Paul_Siu] #5414526 04/27/20 11:15 AM
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Kestas Offline
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Don't buy first model year cars or the last model year. For the last year the manufacturer may skimp on repairing dies and just wear the heck out of them. I've heard it said that it takes five years to get most of the bugs out of a model.

Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: Paul_Siu] #5414530 04/27/20 11:20 AM
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NO2 Offline
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CR is about as accurate as you are going to get. CR subscribers tend to be biased toward some more reliable brands. I would use a combination of the reliability prediction, repair cost (not reflected in CR) , and owner satisfaction. For instance a Dodge Charger might not have the best reliability, but has very high customer satisfaction. Also look at the problem areas. Infotainment system issues are pretty common even in otherwise reliable cars, but might be UI related - just hard to use or complicated. If it's something in the engine, transmission, or body hardware, just cross it off the list.

Not every car is reliable even across a reliable brand. Never buy the first year after a refresh or redesign. By year 3 you are mostly OK.

Personally, I go by personal usability, owner satisfaction , repair/maintenance costs (luxury and Euro cars are higher), then reliability. Most car models are extremely reliable compared to even a few decades ago. Some things have not changed. I don't like GM seats or their controls. I like Ford infotainment but don't like their higher depreciation. Better to buy one used . I like Subaru AWD, but since they don't depreciate much better to buy one new. Just make your own criteria.

Last edited by NO2; 04/27/20 11:20 AM.
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: Paul_Siu] #5414538 04/27/20 11:25 AM
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dbias Offline
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One more vote to visit forums of the make and model of the vehicle you are interested in. My Audi has been great except for a thermostat housing leak and it was replaced under warranty. On the forums this is really the only thing that most report on the B9 A4.


2011 VW JETTA RIP totaled at 180k 😥
2012 FORD TRANSIT CONNECT Castrol Edge 5W-30
2016 HONDA CIVIC COUPE Casrol Edge 5w-30
2017 AUDI A4 Ravenol 5W-40 RUP
2019 VW Jetta SE factory fill
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: Paul_Siu] #5414554 04/27/20 11:32 AM
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JeffKeryk Online Content
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I stick with the brands that have earned their reputation. So far so good.


2018 Tesla Model 3, Medium Range Battery
2018 Lexus RX450h
2013 Lexus GS350 F Sport
2006 Acura TSX
2001 Tundra Access Cab, 1998 Accord LX, 1968 Corvette L36 Roadster, 1965 Olds 4-4-2
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: JEL01] #5414558 04/27/20 11:39 AM
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MCompact Offline
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Originally Posted by JEL01
Owner/enthusiast forums for that make and mode are a million times better than any commercial sites. You get real world experiences and find out about all the common issues and what years those occurred, as well as ways to fix those issues.


You need to be aware that relying on the experiences of actual owners is diametrically opposed to the prevailing BITOG philosophy that maintains that valid data on reliability can only be obtained from individuals who have yet to even sit in the vehicle in question.


Mine:
2014 M235i
2009 Cooper Clubman
1999 Wrangler Sahara
1995 318ti Club Sport

Wife's:
2015 X1 xDrive28i M Sport


Son's
2009 328i

Buy what makes you smile...
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: JeffKeryk] #5414559 04/27/20 11:42 AM
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Quattro Pete Offline
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Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
I stick with the brands that have earned their reputation.

That's what led me to buy a Honda, and I was very disappointed with that purchase. I suppose I got a lemon.


2002 530i   2015 Q5 3.0T   2018 Charger SRT
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: Paul_Siu] #5414564 04/27/20 11:43 AM
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Muskieteer Offline
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I have been using consumer reports for years and for a lot of cars it is great. However for some cars that are built for younger people do not get represented well in C.R. because most members of C.R. are of the Boomer generation. So say a sports car for younger people may have 100 respondents the cushy Buick SUV may have 20,000 respondents. Another place to look is carcomplaints.com They show which vehicles and years of vehicles are experiencing good or bad reliability.


2019 Toyota Camry
2008 Toyota Tundra
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: Paul_Siu] #5414577 04/27/20 11:54 AM
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dtownfb Offline
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Consumer Reports is a good place to start. I've found Edmunds to be a great resource especially for used cars. They give honest opinions. Add in the online car forums too. They go into detail about the specific issues a car model has as well as recalls and TSBs. Be prepared to do a lot of reading. Just remember these are all tools that should be used together.

I buy used cars as well and am looking at a compact/midsize SUV for my daily driver, whenever we get back to commuting. I'm looking at 2-4 year old Acura RDX, Ford Edge and Nissan Murano as well as CR-V and CX-5.

Good luck.


2006 Toyota Camry
2013 Toyota Sienna
2015 Toyota Camry
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: Paul_Siu] #5414598 04/27/20 12:23 PM
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CBR.worm Offline
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I use general knowledge first, then I spend a lot of time on forums dedicated to the vehicle I am interested in. I typically can get a pretty good idea of what to expect, my experiences have always been better than what is described on the forums. If there are 7 common failures that happen to everyone, I might experience one or two over many years of ownership.

If you see a lot of crazy stuff about totally random failures, I would tend to avoid that. I didn't follow my own advice one time, thinking that surely the car couldn't have that many random documented problems, I was wrong.


'06 Infiniti G35 Sedan 6MT - 180k
Re: Car reliability prediction [Re: dtownfb] #5414605 04/27/20 12:32 PM
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Lolvoguy Offline
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Originally Posted by dtownfb
I've found Edmunds to be a great resource especially for used cars. They give honest opinions.

+1
Best FREE info you'll find on the net!


06 Lexus IS350- Wife
88 BMW 325is- Mistress
Say "no" to Turbo!
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