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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: dja4260] #5394887 04/05/20 07:40 PM
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ZeeOSix Offline
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Originally Posted by dja4260
IF you had a spare 10k to invest for a short term gain. What you invest in?

I don't, I'm asking for a friend...


Ventilator and medical supply manufacturers.

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: JeffKeryk] #5394892 04/05/20 07:45 PM
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Ws6 Offline
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Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by Ws6

-will another bank refinance me at a fixed rate maybe, in another few months, desperate to make a loan, if I pursue it?
-in 3 years when my refi is due anyways, will the interest rate go up or down from when I financed it 2 years ago? (The bank I went through bases it in the NY prime)?

The Fed lowered rates to nearly zero as a way to prop up banks and the economy which runs on debt.
Mortgage rates will likely be even better bargains than they are now.
If you are a qualified borrower, you will do very well.

Good luck.

When would be prime time to refi? Now? A year from now?

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5394911 04/05/20 08:17 PM
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Mr Nice Offline
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I watch this guy on YouTube. Love his commentary and his views on this economy. He likes to stock up on brass, food, water and prepare for bad times ahead. This video was published Sept 24, 2019.

Fast forward to 15:45 and listen to what he says about a recession and black swan even happening in the USA. At 18:20 he again says our country is one black swan event away from causing severe problems in America.





Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5395036 04/05/20 11:28 PM
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unloaded all residual equities in the 401k's tonight..into short term Gov. bonds.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: Mr Nice] #5395114 04/06/20 03:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Mr Nice
What's going to happen when people stop paying their mortgages and try to use certain laws to stay in their homes ?

How will landlords stay afloat with renters not paying and the courts refusing to evict anyone ?

Another housing bubble around the corner and people were simply financially over leveraged. The American Dream is not being up to your eyeballs in debt and living pay check to pay check.

It will be 2009 again 3X worse and there will be no V recovery.


As a 2nd gen landlord I can say that you have to do what is reasonable in risk management. I've seen people who assume certain area will always be occupied and rent don't go down even in a recession, then they brag about it in an AMA internet thread. There is always something that can happen when you are running a business, and you need to know what you can handle.

If Wuhan is only locked down for 3 months, how many months can a landlord hold out? Did they have some sort of safety margin to protect against a foreclosure?

Housing bubble is always going to be around, people always over leverage and got foreclosed, this repeats every generation and their credit scores cleans up after a few years.


"You keep asking questions PandaBear and you'll end up a vegetarian like my wife" - Camu Mahubah
Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: dja4260] #5395115 04/06/20 03:05 AM
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Originally Posted by dja4260
IF you had a spare 10k to invest for a short term gain. What you invest in?

I don't, I'm asking for a friend...


I will hold out until things settle down, I don't like catching a falling knife. But if I must, I'd buy something that I need in the future anyways, or do some sort of dollar cost averaging between USD / Treasury Note, US Index fund, International Index fund, or search for a fire sales of something I have to buy (i.e. if I need to replace my 25 year old corolla anyways and someone gave me a cash for clunker of $5k now).

What kind of risk can you handle?


"You keep asking questions PandaBear and you'll end up a vegetarian like my wife" - Camu Mahubah
Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5395133 04/06/20 05:22 AM
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Navi Offline
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I think the mistake many are making here is believing the situation will be out of control across the United States for the rest of the year. Both South Korea and China had it under control in 2 months. When you have everything shutdown...Time Square looking like a vacant lot during rush-hour...I would say common sense tells you eventually it will be under control. It certainly cant last forever with everything being shutdown like this and the government throwing the kitchen sink at it.

Ive been using this model...a model touted by Dr. Birx who is the lady at the daily White House briefings:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

You can clearly see it will be well under control by June 1st and in some areas of the USA May 1st. Thus I highly doubt these prognostications that we are going to fall into a great depression or a recession. So I believe the stock market will continue to rise from here, of course, with a little potential whipsaw action. I might point out like I did earlier that not all stocks will rise from here. I am a doubter on certain travel segments like the cruise-lines and the airlines. Even after it is under control who would want to jump on a cruise? At any given time in a rising market some 10-30% of the stocks are not rising and its easy to get into those stocks.

***Disclaimer: "Well under control" does not mean totally eliminated or that precautions must not be taken from that point. It will take several months or over a year before we can be sure thus even after its "well under control" everyone should still be on guard...take all precautions. Also, the above isnt fact just yet but statistical modeling. As the 2016 elections showed us sometimes statistical modeling isnt perfect. Sometimes the lesser probability does come true. Also, I am no expert on any of this so this post should be considered as personal guesswork.

I will also not directly discuss the situation noting the moderators comments in the forum telling us not to discuss it, but the situation does impact the topic of this message thread directly. If the situation improves of course the market will move back up in anticipation of a restart of the economy. So I will not name it directly or use the C or V words and limit my remarks on it from here. I dont plan on addressing it directly or moving it into further discussion but simply point out the link to the model and say that it seems to be tracing along with the actual results. Of course, I might point out anecdotally that it seems like common sense to believe that when you lock everyone down like this its incredibly harder for the situation to grow further out of control.

Last edited by Navi; 04/06/20 05:27 AM.
Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5395203 04/06/20 07:35 AM
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Amkeer Offline
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Your only getting part of the issues that are present at this time. You need to look at the impact of all events and how that effects earnings, employment, shortages of materials, defaults, and on. The economy has been on a tear for the past 11 years as well as the market. Also, holding cash is a position.

Being a realist is not negative its using due diligence to mitigate risk. Taking percentages off the table during a 11 year run up in the market is good and sound planning. I see people working in there 70's because they didn't do this. Me, I want to retire in the next 7 years if possible. I will be 60. Nevertheless, you can tell people stuff over and over again and they won't listen anyways. People only believe what they want to believe.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5395210 04/06/20 07:42 AM
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Navi Offline
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Let me put it like this and I wont post any more to this thread until May 1st. My peronal opinion is the overall market will be much higher on May 1st based on the reasons outlined previously. As I said not all stocks will move up but probaby 4 out of 5 will and the challenge is not getting stuck in those 1 out of 5. My personal suggestion and preference is ETFs to capture the movement of the market versus riskier instruments.

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: Amkeer] #5395231 04/06/20 08:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Amkeer
Your only getting part of the issues that are present at this time. You need to look at the impact of all events and how that effects earnings, employment, shortages of materials, defaults, and on. The economy has been on a tear for the past 11 years as well as the market. Also, holding cash is a position.

Being a realist is not negative its using due diligence to mitigate risk. Taking percentages off the table during a 11 year run up in the market is good and sound planning. I see people working in there 70's because they didn't do this. Me, I want to retire in the next 7 years if possible. I will be 60. Nevertheless, you can tell people stuff over and over again and they won't listen anyways. People only believe what they want to believe.





This is a good point in reference to asset allocation. The advice to start reducing exposure to equities in the years leading up to retirement has been out there for a long time yet the notion that this is different will sway a individual to stick on the long side of stocks as they get older.

Generally speaking, when someone turns 50 they should be starting that change. It doesn’t need to happen all at once but a gradual shift out of equities and into other avenues of investment is proper. When situations like the current one arise, those who are long on equities in their latter years get hit the hardest.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5395272 04/06/20 08:54 AM
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Mr Nice Offline
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Amkeer,

Excellent post. I agree 100%

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: PimTac] #5395283 04/06/20 08:59 AM
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doitmyself Offline
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Originally Posted by PimTac
This is a good point in reference to asset allocation. The advice to start reducing exposure to equities in the years leading up to retirement has been out there for a long time yet the notion that this is different will sway a individual to stick on the long side of stocks as they get older.

Generally speaking, when someone turns 50 they should be starting that change. It doesn’t need to happen all at once but a gradual shift out of equities and into other avenues of investment is proper. When situations like the current one arise, those who are long on equities in their latter years get hit the hardest.


As we joke about at my workplace, you have a keen grasp of the obvious. But, it is very hard to suppress the greed instinct. Just a few months ago I was concerned that my 403b was producing "only" 15% growth when you guys were bragging about 25%+. I had to remind myself that at age 64 and at the point I can choose to retire whenever I wish, I have been reallocating my portfolio to safer distributions. Now, when people are crying about losing 25% or more of their savings, I can relax a bit because I am still in good shape with much less loss. I recommend everyone to have an investment counselor of some sort to at least understand the fundamentals.

I agree about the realist comment. That's why it astounds me that after a year of everyone knowing and predicting that a correction was a "when" not "if" situation, why are so many in such a state of shock here. My wife and I are already planning a much bigger garden this year as one way to take on the situation head on.

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5395287 04/06/20 09:06 AM
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During these times the stock market might be like the roulette wheel. Those who placed their bets on triple leveraged short vehicles are getting their shorts handed to them today.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5395420 04/06/20 11:58 AM
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We are now in the "timing the market" territory. Is it going to be much lower or much higher? Nobody will know until things settle down. You also need to know that we were coming off a historic high vs average or historic low. There will be some cool off that's natural, plus there will be impact because of the 3 months or so of lock down in the whole world, plus the fundamental change of people's behavior that will never be the same. The market will eventually be back just like how after 911 and 08, the point is when and how low is the lowest. 911 and 08 didn't bottom until 1 year or so later, and we are just starting to see it collapse a month or so ago.


"You keep asking questions PandaBear and you'll end up a vegetarian like my wife" - Camu Mahubah
Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: Ws6] #5395443 04/06/20 12:31 PM
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JeffKeryk Online Content
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Originally Posted by Ws6

When would be prime time to refi? Now? A year from now?

Take a personal inventory and make a plan based on it.
What are your goals? My goal was to gain equity in my house and eventually pay it off. Basically an impossible dream.
But also to invest long term in the markets.

I hooked up with a really good broker here in Silicon Valley.
He sold me a series of no cost loans minimizing interest expense while affording a reasonable time cushion; generally 5/30 term loans.
I also got taken for perhaps $100K by a wanna be contractor who did a lotta work on my home; I had a huge mountain to climb.

I made payments based on a 30 year loan or higher, used every bonus I got at work and took no vacations.
I drove Toyota pickup trucks and used Hondas.
I was also very lucky to be part of the Silicon Valley explosion starting in the '90s.
Once in awhile I would sell a small portion of my stock options and put the money on the loan principal.

All of a sudden $600K in debt became close enough to zero. I now own a $2M home free and clear in Los Gatos, CA.
FYI renting a 2 bedroom apartment around here is maybe $3,000 per month. I could easily rent my house out for $5,000 per month. Maybe $6,000.

I would not take a loan that had points or costs. I would not be afraid to refinance over and over if it benefited me.
Even if you take a 5/30, keep it for 5 years and then rates are higher, you have had 5 years of lower interest expense. And more equity vs debt...
And (hopefully) you have put in extra $$, tons of extra $$ over the regular payment.
Rates are at all time lows. But remember, it is not the rate, rather it is interest expense that you want to minimize.
If you are not disciplined enough to make extra payments and want a safe long term commitment, I would look at a 15 year loan if your budget allows for the higher payment.

One more thing; and this is the most important in my opinion.
Invest in your self first. College, whatever. Just do it.
I joined AA at 33 and got my 1st degree at the age of 40.

Oh yeah, now I can drive any car I want.
Good luck.


Last edited by JeffKeryk; 04/06/20 12:35 PM.

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