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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: dblshock] #5393093 04/03/20 09:36 PM
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dishdude Online Content
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Originally Posted by dblshock
I'm in the SPX 1600-1800 round 2 camp....


shocked2

I was afraid to say 2000! I am thinking 1800-2000.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5393101 04/03/20 09:51 PM
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dblshock Offline
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in hindsight shorting the mid-caps or Russell was where the larger gains were...fear of liquidity..I noticed the SPX 100 & FANG short ETFs under performed the SPX500 short ETFs ...I'll mark that down...may continue.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: Mr Nice] #5393183 04/04/20 03:17 AM
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Ws6 Offline
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Originally Posted by Mr Nice
What's going to happen when people stop paying their mortgages and try to use certain laws to stay in their homes ?

How will landlords stay afloat with renters not paying and the courts refusing to evict anyone ?

Another housing bubble around the corner and people were simply financially over leveraged. The American Dream is not being up to your eyeballs in debt and living pay check to pay check.

It will be 2009 again 3X worse and there will be no V recovery.

So...maybe the wrong thread, but...a segue was provided...

I have 7 acres on a 5:1 arm (raw land is why).

-will another bank refinance me at a fixed rate maybe, in another few months, desperate to make a loan, if I pursue it?
-in 3 years when my refi is due anyways, will the interest rate go up or down from when I financed it 2 years ago? (The bank I went through bases it in the NY prime)?

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5393246 04/04/20 06:22 AM
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Mr Nice Offline
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I meant what will happen to the banking industry / banking stocks when millions of people stop paying mortgages and expect some kind of bail out.

Folks, the last 2 weeks are just the beginning of this mess.
$1200 check means nothing if your out of work for 3 - 6 months.... possibly longer.

Real unemployment number is 1.5 times what the government says it is because so many people were not counted.

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: Mr Nice] #5393325 04/04/20 08:50 AM
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Ws6 Offline
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Originally Posted by Mr Nice
I meant what will happen to the banking industry / banking stocks when millions of people stop paying mortgages and expect some kind of bail out.

Folks, the last 2 weeks are just the beginning of this mess.
$1200 check means nothing if your out of work for 3 - 6 months.... possibly longer.

Real unemployment number is 1.5 times what the government says it is because so many people were not counted.

Oh, I know, I was just curious...will the banks beg me to take out a loan, or will the be stingy as all get out?

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: Ws6] #5393337 04/04/20 09:04 AM
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JeffKeryk Offline
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Originally Posted by Ws6

-will another bank refinance me at a fixed rate maybe, in another few months, desperate to make a loan, if I pursue it?
-in 3 years when my refi is due anyways, will the interest rate go up or down from when I financed it 2 years ago? (The bank I went through bases it in the NY prime)?

The Fed lowered rates to nearly zero as a way to prop up banks and the economy which runs on debt.
Mortgage rates will likely be even better bargains than they are now.
If you are a qualified borrower, you will do very well.

Good luck.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5393347 04/04/20 09:16 AM
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Robertslowpoke Offline
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good morning everyone!

1. I hope everyone is staying home and staying safe!

2. I hope none of you got too damaged in the stock market.

3. i really hope none lose their jobs long term.

I have lived through the crash of 1987, 2000, and 2008.

My opinion, and it is JUST an opinion, is that the market was due for a retreat, since 2008 to now was a super bull market. added to this is the terrible virus, and oil price collapse, man made by Saudi and Russia. i myself have been looking for a market crash for 2 years, and was 95% in cash in the bank.

Now, monthly, I am buying stocks in DIFFERENT sectors. Monthly means I do not put all the money in now, and I CANNOT predict the bottom of the market crash. no one can. I do not put it all in oil stocks, Home depot, Visa, etc. I predict at some point the market will reach a pretty good bottom, and I will keep buying as long as values do not get too high. I do NOT NOT put money in that I cannot afford to lose.

from Peter Lynch: good value is when the earnings growth is higher than the P/E of the stock. If Visa is growing at 22% per year, and a P/E of 10, that is good value. I just made those numbers up.

to my mind, we are looking at a GENERAL stock market crash, and a big SECTOR crash in the oil companies.

my opinion: do NOT put any money in the stock market you cannot afford to lose.

only buy the best, best safest companies when their growth rate is at or above the P/E. companies that have tons of cash and a necessary product.

After the 2008 crash, Berkshire Hathaway, (warren buffet) bought the entire Burlington norther santa fe railroad. at a bargain price. smart guy.

I myself think there MIGHT be a lot more pain ahead. there is risk in the market.

will the Dow fall from 20,000 to 10,000????

what if the body bags are in the street of new york city?

my opinion: at some point, this virus will be conquered. at some point, the price of oil will not stay so low. at some point, people will go back to work. when? i do not know.

these are only my opinions, and I am not bragging or commanding in any way.

i would love to hear your ideas.

stay home and stay safe.

best regards,

Bob

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: dishdude] #5393362 04/04/20 09:47 AM
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mightymousetech Offline
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Originally Posted by dishdude
Originally Posted by dblshock
I'm in the SPX 1600-1800 round 2 camp....


shocked2

I was afraid to say 2000! I am thinking 1800-2000.


My gut says 2000 as well. Only time will tell I guess. Sitting on 90% cash waiting for the hammer to drop.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5393512 04/04/20 12:31 PM
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JeffKeryk Offline
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I am staying the course. I am fairly diversified between conservative, crazy, double tax free CA bonds and cash.
It is what it is.
Good luck.

Last edited by JeffKeryk; 04/04/20 12:31 PM.

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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5394138 04/05/20 03:48 AM
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Gasbuggy Offline
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I invest and trade for a living... I took a sizable DOW short last week, March 30/31. After mostly stepping aside for prior March Madness. This is when funds were rebalancing and there seemed to be a considerable effort to keep the market up. WHY? Everyone gets their quarterly account statements based on the 3/31 close. So soften the blow by moving stocks a bit higher for that ending period. Having worked in wealth management for a short time, most people do not keep track of their investment accounts. Many have never even logged in to view their accounts on their own and have them scattered from job changes etc. People take pride in putting money away and not looking at it. All of these passive investors will get to see their paper losses in the coming weeks when the quarterly statements show up. I think that will kick off new rounds of selling for capital preservation. Lots of people will need to secure their retirement funds and I know many older parents are going to be leaned on by their service industry (and others) employed adult children who won't be able to pay their rent/bills soon.

I have a few close friends that either worked on the NASDAQ floor, or elsewhere on Wall Street. No one is optimistic at the moment. This is an email I got a couple days ago from a good friend who used to be in charge of any bond deal over 1 billion at a bulge bracket Wall Street firm. He retired in his 40's. In all it's eccentric glory;

Always. Recheck premises. Everyday. I did this with a partner at another firm on huge huge positions we did together. And every morning at 7 a.m. we would go over every piece of data. And check our premises. And our conclusions. We would talk all day. And do it again at noon. And at 5:30. Every single day. Some of our trades went on for a month. Or six weeks sometimes. By the way together we were 100 percent successful...
I think constantly. All day. Everyday. About what’s going on. Sometimes I get into the weeds on individual stocks or something. BUT
I see no reason for the Dow to be over 20,000. I don’t think this should be an accumulation period. I think one should hold cash. Or be short .
Not sure how far etc. But this is still huge. Even with all this money they are dropping from helicopters. First. To old lows. Then perhaps a little bounce and it gets faded. Then I would guess the next objective is the double top for the Dow from 2008. 14,129. After that not sure.
I don’t want to hang off the edge. But Market is [censored] up. And one can’t get stuck in the groove. And one can’t get complacent that these sideways days mean anything.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5394174 04/05/20 06:28 AM
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Mr Nice Offline
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Quote
I see no reason for the Dow to be over 20,000. I don’t think this should be an accumulation period. I think one should hold cash. Or be short


Yep.

The last few years there was sooo much market manipulation to drive up the markets and CEOs dumping their stock. They knew what was up and the bull run was coming to end soon. CV just sped up the recession and will make everything worse due to this black swan global event.


Run to the EXIT while you still can, a major crash will wipeout many people not heeding all the warning signs.


Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5394181 04/05/20 06:40 AM
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Good advice there. We need to test the 14,000 to 15,000 level in the DJIA. Its not out of the question that we return to lows put in 2009 or a little above it. It amazes me that people work hard to accumulate money only to sit back and watch it get vaporized. It seemed like a good short entry on Thursday. It may take 20-30 years to get back to 30000 in the DJIA we will see.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5394219 04/05/20 07:37 AM
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Mr Nice Offline
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This is the one of the main red flags that opened my eyes last year to liquidate all my accounts.

This legal stock market manipulation is allowed and CEOs / corporate board members were dumping their stock and running to the exits. I warned a few people about the mass corporate sell off and they said....

“OK, thanks for the info but this market will go up another 20-30% because someone on TV said so”
smirk




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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5394223 04/05/20 07:44 AM
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Mr Nice Offline
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Why have more than 1,300 CEOs left their post in the past year?

A small percent were forced out due to misconduct, the other 99% cashed out and put on their golden parachute.

Can you blame them for being wise and laughing all the way to the bank ?????


https://www.nbcnews.com/business/bu...1-000-ceos-left-their-post-past-n1076201



Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5394239 04/05/20 08:09 AM
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SSerian Offline
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I’ve been shorting the Russell through this mess. Needless to say I’m up about 25% for the year.

I still do not think we’ve hit bottom IMHO. And we will have a long road to recovery. You cannot hit the pause button on our economy and expect it to jump right back. Any gains after the stay at home orders are lifted will be short lived.


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