Tesla Crushing It

[JeffKeryk]

With all the stuff going on, perhaps we can bicker on everyone's favorite American car company and Elon musk (he's whack, right?).

"Munster noted that Tesla's delivery numbers are up 40% year-on-year in the first quarter, at a time when the overall United States auto industry numbers are down 29%."

Tesla Q1 Results

Stay safe...

 

[Pew]

So the company delivered something that was already pre-ordered and that's seen as out-of-the-ordinary. Do those numbers make up the lack of deliveries prior?

I'm sorry but the I doubt the market that Tesla tries to cater towards will be very affected by the economy and drop of car buying (as evident by the fact they can just pre-order and reserve a car without care).

 

[NormanBuntz]

I thought you meant Eddie Munster.

 

[IMSA_Racing_Fan]

Tesla customers are not middle - upper middle class.

 

[jcartwright99]

If things don't get better, Tesla will go bankrupt faster than the big 3. They are billions in debt and in the best of times can't make an annual profit. The Tesla zealots won't like it but Tesla is in no place to handle a global recession.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Originally Posted by NormanBuntz
I thought you meant Eddie Munster.


The Munsters don't believe in electric cars ...

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by Pew
So the company delivered something that was already pre-ordered and that's seen as out-of-the-ordinary. Do those numbers make up the lack of deliveries prior?

I'm sorry but the I doubt the market that Tesla tries to cater towards will be very affected by the economy and drop of car buying (as evident by the fact they can just pre-order and reserve a car without care).

Yes, you are at least partially correct. During 2019, Tesla sold every Model 3 they could build. And they were cranking 'em out 24 by 7.
Order backlog is always in the tens of thousands.
The waiting time from order to delivery was at least a month here in Silicon Valley in late 2019.
This was due to expanded deliveries to the rest of the country, to China and Europe. Germany loves the Model 3; Gigafactory 4 (near Berlin) is scheduled to open early 2021.

Of course the Fremont factory, right up the road from me, is shuttered. They are starting to make ventilators here and in the Buffalo plant.
The wait time has driven up the value of used Teslas; there is a shortage.

The Model Y is where the demand is. I see a few running around once in awhile.
The delivery breakdown for the 3 and Y has not been released as far as I know.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by jcartwright99
If things don't get better, Tesla will go bankrupt faster than the big 3. They are billions in debt and in the best of times can't make an annual profit. The Tesla zealots won't like it but Tesla is in no place to handle a global recession.

Tesla ended 2019 with about $13 billion in debt on the books and about $6.9 billion net of cash on hand.
2020 looked to be a banner year with the Model Y entering the SUV market and taking market share.
Of course we are in a different world right now.

 

[Cujet]

I'm looking for a new car and there is not much that I like. I do like and want the Tesla Model 3, as I love the way they drive. I can't stomach the limited highway range, as I drive mostly long trips. I don't have a normal commute. It's not unusual for me to drive 400 miles in a day and until recently I regularly did 1000 mile trips with only 2 fuel stops! Best case, an EV adds an unacceptable 9 hours to the trip.

Which brings up a thought. There is a possibility that modest distance air travel (bus/train too) will be avoided by some percentage of the population that now perceive groups as infected. They may choose to drive instead. In which case, the EV is not going to appeal to those who think they need a highway trip capable travelling car.

I can't predict if Tesla will lose potential sales due to this, but I strongly suspect they will.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by Cujet
I'm looking for a new car and there is not much that I like. I do like and want the Tesla Model 3, as I love the way they drive. I can't stomach the limited highway range, as I drive mostly long trips. I don't have a normal commute. It's not unusual for me to drive 400 miles in a day and until recently I regularly did 1000 mile trips with only 2 fuel stops! Best case, an EV adds an unacceptable 9 hours to the trip.

Which brings up a thought. There is a possibility that modest distance air travel (bus/train too) will be avoided by some percentage of the population that now perceive groups as infected. They may choose to drive instead. In which case, the EV is not going to appeal to those who think they need a highway trip capable travelling car.

I can't predict if Tesla will lose potential sales due to this, but I strongly suspect they will.

Every EV owner I know has an ICE car as well. I sure do.
Personally, I consider our Model 3 a toy. A Honda Civic is a much better buy.

Regarding range, my crystal ball sez a 400 mile range EV ain't that far away.
But given the high battery cost, it ain't gonna be cheap. $100K ?
Lucid Air - 400 mile range

Cujet, go buy a Long Range Model 3. The smiles will make up for the 30 minute partial charging stops. Ha!

 

[Gasbuggy]

Great bonus season boosted sales. Next q will be ugly.

 

[Olas]

Originally Posted by IMSA_Racing_Fan
Tesla customers are not middle - upper middle class.

As someone who lives on the other side of the world, that stirkes me as a strange comment.
Typically, over here the poorer people who want to be percieved as richer than they are will rent/lease/finance a flashy new model car. The people who are wealthy, comfortable, and concerned with maintaining their wealth do not feel the need to show off, and typically they drive older cars with higher miles - old diesel mercedes estate cars are a favourite of the none-ostentatious wealthy folk in this area.

 

[PimTac]

This subject has been quiet lately especially after the stock took a 50% haircut.

Meanwhile the Musk is letting workers go. No more shell games for the Musk.

 

[Audios]

I wonder how many customers are backing out of their pre orders with the way things are now.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by PimTac
This subject has been quiet lately especially after the stock took a 50% haircut.

Meanwhile the Musk is letting workers go. No more shell games for the Musk.

Down 50% from the peak in Feb, up about $50 or 12% YTD. Up 100% over the last year.
The Dow is down 37% YTD, down 25% over the last year.
Tesla cut contractors. One would expect deeper cuts, just like the rest of the country.
Tesla is a major employer in the Bay Area (and tax base), but does not exist in a bubble.

The point of my post was Tesla results vs. other car makers.
Your point is well taken; TSLA stock is volatile; heck it is the 2nd most shorted stock after Apple.
But its products are in strong demand in an otherwise shrinking new car market.
All good.

 

[tig1]

The driving range on the hwy is a game breaker for me as I travel by car several long trips each year. I do see them as needed for local driving.

 

[Snagglefoot]

Just to we all agree what we are comparing here, what is the purchase cost or if you want, the monthly lease cost of a base model Tesla 3 in the USA.

 

[Mr Nice]

Originally Posted by jcartwright99
If things don't get better, Tesla will go bankrupt faster than the big 3. They are billions in debt and in the best of times can't make an annual profit. The Tesla zealots won't like it but Tesla is in no place to handle a global recession.


Ford and GM are in bad shape and want another Cash For Clunkers type program to somehow get sales going again.

All those $50K trucks on dealer lots need to be moved .

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by Snagglefoot
Just to we all agree what we are comparing here, what is the purchase cost or if you want, the monthly lease cost of a base model Tesla 3 in the USA.

The starting price of a Model 3 is $40K. This gets you a white, Standard Range Plus. 250 mile range, 140 mph top speed, 0 to 60 in 5.3 seconds.
Our car, similar to this but with more range, alloy wheels and AP was about $56K in Dec 2018. We did get the $7,500 tax credit.
Today that $$ almost gets you into the Performance Dual Motor AWD, 320 mile range, 145 mile top speed and 3.2 second 0 to 60.

Model 3

Remember, a Tesla lease is different in that you have no option to buy at lease end. Musk is building a future fleet of autonomous driving cars for his own Uber or whatever.
That boy just might be whack...

 

[Dave9]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk

But its products are in strong demand in an otherwise shrinking new car market.


Umm no. They have merely increased their production rate but this in no way suggests their products are in strong demand. If they had the same production capacity as everyone else, I predict that their sales decline would be near the same as everyone else, or possibly a lot worse since a potential economic depression can decrease luxury/toy sales rates of anything. It is merely a sign that they can't keep up with the very weak demand but are (now, were) getting better at it.