Stock market!!!!

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unemployment claims #s are the biggest window dressing curd in the world, it does not reflect the true extent of the problem.
1099s are not included in some states.
 
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by Lubener
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
alarmguy,

If that's your views then you need to liquidate everything. Run to the exits....

Why stay in if there's sooo much terrible news on the way ???

You answered all your questions.


They sound like words from someone who doesn't know what he is talking about and getting ready to panic and bail.


Just trying to give my personal advice and help some people here.
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Heck, I even post open jobs in the Off Topic section trying to help people. These are not McJobs and actually very good jobs with excellent training, benefits and opportunities. Been posting jobs for approximately 4 years.

Nothing wrong trying to help out.
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Yeah, in forums you never know the intent on the person posting. When you posted to me I didnt either and agreed with PinTac 100%.
Nothing wrong in trying to help someone, with that said I wonder if you read my whole post or if the way I wrote it properly explained myself.. Throughout life I have been pretty good judging "society" reactions/actions to events, ect.

Anyway, to cut to the chase, there are and always will be good investments. In my post, my meaning is an opinion on where our economy is heading and no one really knows, past history shows it always rebounding quite nicely.
With that said, this world event was a rule breaker and quite honestly, (TO ME PERSONALLY) its no catastrophic event at all but in this modern age with 24 hour news, that the public at large actually watches for entertainment purposes, hours and hours a day, they still do not know the true facts of any situation because the way its presented is for entertainment, not true hard numbers with explanations.
So I dont think ever in the last few decades Governors across this great country ordered all businesses to close their doors, go out of business (this to me was the event not the virus) and wait to the day they give the green light.

This (TO ME) is a Rule Breaker, governors across the country literally shutting down the economy, this to me is the economic shock, not the virus. I fear, we really do not know if in some unknown way causes a house of cards to start crumbling down or some type of economic shock that was not accounted for. OR at the same time life goes back to merry normal. I think we are going to end up someplace in-between. Yeah, maybe 20+ or more unemployment.

SO to answer your question Mr Nice!!! Let me start off with a question to you!
1. Do you know anyone that has a stock portfolio (IRA etc) that is higher now then in April 1, 2019?

2. I do know one person, I am up in the past year, I was at a point of wanting to be more conservative just based on what I was seeing, I cant really explain it, I dont have the desire to follow every turn in the market, (but its had a good, long hard run up/sooner or later something comes along to correct it) AND at the same time, felt I was getting in with a company that had an ok dividend and to me personally is totally firing on all four cylinders, heck, make that eight cylinders. Its not some get rich overnight stock but in the even of a downturn a safe one.
Best part about this company is my wife and I used to HATE, be Embarrassed to walk in this store and now we see ourselves buying everything from them, lately also onto the online purchases from them, now they are moving into Family Medical practice.
SO for the first time, I bought into a company that I really believed in (as safe) and will be with it for a while in this IRA. this stock is my major holding in this IRA

Sure, like the market its still a bumpy road but I know to me, there is nothing but upside in the future, my only regret is I didnt put every last penny into in. Though on some bad days I still pick a little more up here and there. So this long post is my explanation as to why I dont run to the "exit" for me its not easy to pick a good stock in a good market that you know is nearing a top.
That stock is Walmart.

With everything above said, I see A LOT of things I would like to buy! Good companies that have a product or produce a service. There is a future you know and some seems like bargains but at this point in my life Im sticking with what I know until I have more time some day in my life to follow it more closely.
 
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Originally Posted by PimTac
I expect the cruise ship industry will be forever changed after this. They have had problems for a long time with other illnesses that spread throughout the ship despite the efforts to stay clean. Packing thousands into a tight space is probably not going to looked upon favorably from here on out.

Consolidation is going to happen in the travel sector whether it's cruise ship companies, airlines, hotels or whatever.

It was fine after the Titanic. It was fine after the Lusitania. It was fine after SARS. It was fine after MERS. It was fine after Ebola. It will be fine again.
 
The difference here is people like Rand Paul or Chris Cuomo were not getting SARS, MERS or Ebola. The difference here is a massive spending package and the fed rate were not effected by those other things.

Whatever happens to Carnivals ships the company is already sunk but not basic materials. You should have bought the OIH, XLE and XOM when I told you;)
 
Originally Posted by Navi
The difference here is people like Rand Paul or Chris Cuomo were not getting SARS, MERS or Ebola. The difference here is a massive spending package and the fed rate were not effected by those other things.

Whatever happens to Carnivals ships the company is already sunk but not basic materials. You should have bought the OIH, XLE and XOM when I told you;)




Braggadocio much?
 
Originally Posted by stockrex
unemployment claims #s are the biggest window dressing curd in the world, it does not reflect the true extent of the problem.
1099s are not included in some states.

Don't forget an extra 1.5 million folks that could NOT file for unemployment because state UE websites crashed and lots of people did not file.

6.6M + 1.5M = 8.1M
 
alarmguy,

Yes, my balances are up from April 1, 2019.

Lots of bad news will be headed our way. I understand markets would be in worse shape if certain things behind the scenes were not happening.


Every person has their own 'game plan' whether its right or wrong.

Lots of unemployed folks could care less about the stock market.... they just want to make it to the next week and keep a roof over their head.
 
Given the unemployment numbers from last week, I am surprised the markets have not further tanked today.
The expectation was 3M to 5M; the numbers came in at 6.6M.
I understand the market was ready, and that the stimulus should offer some rehires, but 10M losses over the past month is staggering.
There were nearly 160M people employed in the US; this is a big hit for 1 month.

Hold on to your hats and let's beat this thing.

@AlarmGuy
For the past year, I think I am about even or up; sorta hard to calculate because I moved some investments into Schwab.
From the peak this year, it is a much different story.

To add to Mr. Nice's points, maybe 60% of American workers are invested in the market and most of them are in 401Ks.
The bottom 80% of these own about 8% of market value.
 
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Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Given the unemployment numbers from last week, I am surprised the markets have not further tanked today.
The expectation was 3M to 5M; the numbers came in at 6.6M.
I understand the market was ready, and that the stimulus should offer some rehires, but 10M losses over the past month is staggering.
There were nearly 160M people employed in the US; this is a big hit for 1 month.

Hold on to your hats and let's beat this thing.

@AlarmGuy
For the past year, I think I am about even or up; sorta hard to calculate because I moved some investments into Schwab.
From the peak this year, it is a much different story.


Im a skeptic and always believe the news fits the market. More or less on any market move in any day there is a news story.
 
Originally Posted by Ws6
Originally Posted by PimTac
I expect the cruise ship industry will be forever changed after this. They have had problems for a long time with other illnesses that spread throughout the ship despite the efforts to stay clean. Packing thousands into a tight space is probably not going to looked upon favorably from here on out.

Consolidation is going to happen in the travel sector whether it's cruise ship companies, airlines, hotels or whatever.

It was fine after the Titanic. It was fine after the Lusitania. It was fine after SARS. It was fine after MERS. It was fine after Ebola. It will be fine again.


I got to agree with PimTac but that is just my wife and I.
after many years we were tempted by a cruise but get too grossed out, then lately, last year or two we might have been getting closer to going on one, well, once again, not anymore!
But that is just us, other family members who just cancelled theirs will be going in a year once this clears up. So whatever, but not for us.
 
Originally Posted by alarmguy
Originally Posted by Ws6
Originally Posted by PimTac
I expect the cruise ship industry will be forever changed after this. They have had problems for a long time with other illnesses that spread throughout the ship despite the efforts to stay clean. Packing thousands into a tight space is probably not going to looked upon favorably from here on out.

Consolidation is going to happen in the travel sector whether it's cruise ship companies, airlines, hotels or whatever.

It was fine after the Titanic. It was fine after the Lusitania. It was fine after SARS. It was fine after MERS. It was fine after Ebola. It will be fine again.


I got to agree with PimTac but that is just my wife and I.
after many years we were tempted by a cruise but get too grossed out, then lately, last year or two we might have been getting closer to going on one, well, once again, not anymore!
But that is just us, other family members who just cancelled theirs will be going in a year once this clears up. So whatever, but not for us.




Just to expand on this, the era of the Titanic and Lusitania is far removed from current day cruise operations. The passengers that were on those vessels were going somewhere. That was the way to get across the oceans at that time period. They were luxurious and expensive. Today's cruise ships mimic the transformation of the airline industry from what used to be a richer persons way of travel to the air version of Greyhound buses today. The cruise industry has responded by building larger vessels that look like floating hotels and they are in that respect. A lot more passengers are on a cruise ship these days.

I will be interested to see how the small cruise ship sector fares compared to the large behemoth ships. These have become popular as of late. It will remain to be seen.


A pending agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia on the oil situation perked up the markets this morning.
 
Originally Posted by Navi
The difference here is people like Rand Paul or Chris Cuomo were not getting SARS, MERS or Ebola. The difference here is a massive spending package and the fed rate were not effected by those other things.

Whatever happens to Carnivals ships the company is already sunk but not basic materials. You should have bought the OIH, XLE and XOM when I told you;)


Oh, I diversified. Bought a lot of HLX, actually. At least, by percentage of amount invested. I only put $2500 into this, total, as I acknowledge my ignorance in this game.
 
Originally Posted by PimTac
Originally Posted by alarmguy
Originally Posted by Ws6
Originally Posted by PimTac
I expect the cruise ship industry will be forever changed after this. They have had problems for a long time with other illnesses that spread throughout the ship despite the efforts to stay clean. Packing thousands into a tight space is probably not going to looked upon favorably from here on out.

Consolidation is going to happen in the travel sector whether it's cruise ship companies, airlines, hotels or whatever.

It was fine after the Titanic. It was fine after the Lusitania. It was fine after SARS. It was fine after MERS. It was fine after Ebola. It will be fine again.


I got to agree with PimTac but that is just my wife and I.
after many years we were tempted by a cruise but get too grossed out, then lately, last year or two we might have been getting closer to going on one, well, once again, not anymore!
But that is just us, other family members who just cancelled theirs will be going in a year once this clears up. So whatever, but not for us.




Just to expand on this, the era of the Titanic and Lusitania is far removed from current day cruise operations. The passengers that were on those vessels were going somewhere. That was the way to get across the oceans at that time period. They were luxurious and expensive. Today's cruise ships mimic the transformation of the airline industry from what used to be a richer persons way of travel to the air version of Greyhound buses today. The cruise industry has responded by building larger vessels that look like floating hotels and they are in that respect. A lot more passengers are on a cruise ship these days.

I will be interested to see how the small cruise ship sector fares compared to the large behemoth ships. These have become popular as of late. It will remain to be seen.


A pending agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia on the oil situation perked up the markets this morning.

I believe that the smaller cruise markets will be hurt worse. The whole industry is very debt heavy, and the smaller markets just have less asset to leverage, so are more vulnerable.
 
Originally Posted by alarmguy
Originally Posted by Ws6
Originally Posted by PimTac
I expect the cruise ship industry will be forever changed after this. They have had problems for a long time with other illnesses that spread throughout the ship despite the efforts to stay clean. Packing thousands into a tight space is probably not going to looked upon favorably from here on out.

Consolidation is going to happen in the travel sector whether it's cruise ship companies, airlines, hotels or whatever.

It was fine after the Titanic. It was fine after the Lusitania. It was fine after SARS. It was fine after MERS. It was fine after Ebola. It will be fine again.


I got to agree with PimTac but that is just my wife and I.
after many years we were tempted by a cruise but get too grossed out, then lately, last year or two we might have been getting closer to going on one, well, once again, not anymore!
But that is just us, other family members who just cancelled theirs will be going in a year once this clears up. So whatever, but not for us.

People can't even stay away from their local walmart RIGHT NOW. No way the vast majority is going to stay away from a cheap good time in 6-12mo...
 
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by stockrex
unemployment claims #s are the biggest window dressing curd in the world, it does not reflect the true extent of the problem.
1099s are not included in some states.

Don't forget an extra 1.5 million folks that could NOT file for unemployment because state UE websites crashed and lots of people did not file.

6.6M + 1.5M = 8.1M



I know lots of people filing now that are having severe processing difficulties. The ultimate numbers will be devastating. This will FAR outstrip any damages done by the virus, IMO.
 
The cruise industry will be forever changed after this. New regulation will be around to protect public trust and make the density lower, safer for everyone. This is like how SeaWorld changed after Shamu killed a trainer, roller coaster accidents, water slide decap a kid, etc.

This all leads to the profit being much lower from now on, and less fun, less sales, etc. The industry will survive but the stock price and profit will suffer. I'm not going to buy until the dust settle a bit first.

This is like saying GM / Ford / Chrysler will always be around, so it is always safe to buy their shares.
 
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