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Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: edyvw] #5381829 03/21/20 07:24 AM
Joined: Oct 2010
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Astro14 Offline
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Originally Posted by edyvw

They will have to go bailout route. There is no doubt about that. I just hope they tie well being of pilots, crews, mechanics into bailout.
This will not be sustainable for more than a two months, if even that. I was telling my wife, this is flattening the curve, but what people do not realize is that virus is going to stay, at least until vaccine is at hands. So, we will experience a lot of deaths, the thing is just not to overwhelm the healthcare system at once. I think any industry related to mobility will suffer greatly for next two years. It will be interesting to see what happens now in South Korea as they dropped number of cases dramatically.
Would you retire now? I think part of bailout should be retirement at levels of 01/01/20. Government should pick up tab there and let airlines pay that overtime.


So, let me be clear: there is no defined benefit plan for me. If I were to retire now, I would get by on what I have in my 401(k) and savings.

The pensions at most major airlines were liquidated during the bankruptcies - turned over to the PBGC. PBGC is like the FDIC - a Federal Corporation that takes over and administers failed assets. Companies pay insurance premiums to the corporation and if the bank (or pension) fails, that insurance, along with the assets, are used to pay the depositors/pensions. There is no more defined benefit retirement, nor defined benefit retirement accrual, at any major airline.

My PBGC retirement benefit on 01/01/20 is $800/month, but I can't get that until I'm 62. If I work for nine more years (I'm 56, mandatory retirement age is 65), I will get $800/month.

So, my airline retirement, along with nearly everyone in the industry, is 95% based on my 401(k) balance, which, has taken a hit. The PBGC benefit is a tiny percentage of what my pension would've been. I think people forget that many major airlines went through bankruptcy, and in that process, pay was cut*, benefits were slashed, contracts abrogated, and liabilities shed through the court.

My 30 years of active and reserve service in the USN is my defined benefit plan. 19 years of working two careers/two jobs, simultaneously has provided my defined benefit plan.

Very few airline employees have that.

The employees took the brunt of the bankruptcies 15 years ago. Pay slashed, benefits cut, pensions liquidated.



*In my case, my pay was cut by 65%. You read that right, by 2003, I was left with a paycheck that was about 1/3 of what I had in 2001.

In addition, my company stock, which I couldn't sell under the ESOP, was liquidated for $750. It had been over $100,000.


Last edited by Astro14; 03/21/20 07:25 AM.

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Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: Tdog02] #5381940 03/21/20 09:20 AM
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ArrestMeRedZ Offline
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Astro, you nailed it. One of the big divides between Millennials and Boomers is the lamented loss of retirement plans between generations. What is lost in the discussion is with the exception of military and government plans (which remain essentially the same between generations), private companies rarely paid out those generous retirements.
You mentioned bankruptcies as a reason the airlines voided their pensions. Probably as common were buyouts and mergers where the pirate swooping in raided the "overfunded" pension fund, stripped it of value, then ended up passing it on to the PBGC when things did not go as well as imagined. More common was the method defense contractors and aircraft manufacturers used to avoid paying out pensions by using a manufactured excuse to fire or lay off workers (especially engineers) after years of dedicated service just before they became vested in a retirement plan.

Even with the recent market downturn I believe 401k plans instead of defined benefit plans (with the exception of military/government) puts the power into the hands of employees. Engineers and others can move from company to company every few years to capture real salary increases rather than staying in place and being offered raises that don't match industry standards. No longer do the golden handcuffs that turn out to be brass force employees to stay in a bad position.

Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: Astro14] #5381977 03/21/20 10:08 AM
Joined: Sep 2009
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fdcg27 Offline
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Originally Posted by Astro14
Originally Posted by edyvw

They will have to go bailout route. There is no doubt about that. I just hope they tie well being of pilots, crews, mechanics into bailout.
This will not be sustainable for more than a two months, if even that. I was telling my wife, this is flattening the curve, but what people do not realize is that virus is going to stay, at least until vaccine is at hands. So, we will experience a lot of deaths, the thing is just not to overwhelm the healthcare system at once. I think any industry related to mobility will suffer greatly for next two years. It will be interesting to see what happens now in South Korea as they dropped number of cases dramatically.
Would you retire now? I think part of bailout should be retirement at levels of 01/01/20. Government should pick up tab there and let airlines pay that overtime.


So, let me be clear: there is no defined benefit plan for me. If I were to retire now, I would get by on what I have in my 401(k) and savings.

The pensions at most major airlines were liquidated during the bankruptcies - turned over to the PBGC. PBGC is like the FDIC - a Federal Corporation that takes over and administers failed assets. Companies pay insurance premiums to the corporation and if the bank (or pension) fails, that insurance, along with the assets, are used to pay the depositors/pensions. There is no more defined benefit retirement, nor defined benefit retirement accrual, at any major airline.
My PBGC retirement benefit on 01/01/20 is $800/month, but I can't get that until I'm 62. If I work for nine more years (I'm 56, mandatory retirement age is 65), I will get $800/month.

So, my airline retirement, along with nearly everyone in the industry, is 95% based on my 401(k) balance, which, has taken a hit. The PBGC benefit is a tiny percentage of what my pension would've been. I think people forget that many major airlines went through bankruptcy, and in that process, pay was cut*, benefits were slashed, contracts abrogated, and liabilities shed through the court.

My 30 years of active and reserve service in the USN is my defined benefit plan. 19 years of working two careers/two jobs, simultaneously has provided my defined benefit plan.

Very few airline employees have that.

The employees took the brunt of the bankruptcies 15 years ago. Pay slashed, benefits cut, pensions liquidated.



*In my case, my pay was cut by 65%. You read that right, by 2003, I was left with a paycheck that was about 1/3 of what I had in 2001.

In addition, my company stock, which I couldn't sell under the ESOP, was liquidated for $750. It had been over $100,000.



We have to remember that every large US carrier except for Southwest went through a Ch 11 reorganization, in the case of US/AA a total of three times between both carriers prior to their merger. US gained control of AA during AA's reorganization proceedings.
Employees took it on the chin and lost their old defined benefit plans along with having to endure years of low wages and poor working conditions.
If we want to have a viable air transport system when things begin to return to normal, then we're going to have to pony up some support in some form for the carriers, to include their employees, their subs and their suppliers.
Classical economics tells us that in the long run, this situation would resolve itself, with new entrants picking up the foreclosed capital assets and returning them to service in response to demand.
OTOH, as Lord Keynes once said in response to this view, in the long run we shall all be dead.


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Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: Astro14] #5382545 03/21/20 11:59 PM
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 9,621
edyvw Offline
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Posts: 9,621
Originally Posted by Astro14
Originally Posted by edyvw

They will have to go bailout route. There is no doubt about that. I just hope they tie well being of pilots, crews, mechanics into bailout.
This will not be sustainable for more than a two months, if even that. I was telling my wife, this is flattening the curve, but what people do not realize is that virus is going to stay, at least until vaccine is at hands. So, we will experience a lot of deaths, the thing is just not to overwhelm the healthcare system at once. I think any industry related to mobility will suffer greatly for next two years. It will be interesting to see what happens now in South Korea as they dropped number of cases dramatically.
Would you retire now? I think part of bailout should be retirement at levels of 01/01/20. Government should pick up tab there and let airlines pay that overtime.


So, let me be clear: there is no defined benefit plan for me. If I were to retire now, I would get by on what I have in my 401(k) and savings.

The pensions at most major airlines were liquidated during the bankruptcies - turned over to the PBGC. PBGC is like the FDIC - a Federal Corporation that takes over and administers failed assets. Companies pay insurance premiums to the corporation and if the bank (or pension) fails, that insurance, along with the assets, are used to pay the depositors/pensions. There is no more defined benefit retirement, nor defined benefit retirement accrual, at any major airline.

My PBGC retirement benefit on 01/01/20 is $800/month, but I can't get that until I'm 62. If I work for nine more years (I'm 56, mandatory retirement age is 65), I will get $800/month.

So, my airline retirement, along with nearly everyone in the industry, is 95% based on my 401(k) balance, which, has taken a hit. The PBGC benefit is a tiny percentage of what my pension would've been. I think people forget that many major airlines went through bankruptcy, and in that process, pay was cut*, benefits were slashed, contracts abrogated, and liabilities shed through the court.

My 30 years of active and reserve service in the USN is my defined benefit plan. 19 years of working two careers/two jobs, simultaneously has provided my defined benefit plan.

Very few airline employees have that.

The employees took the brunt of the bankruptcies 15 years ago. Pay slashed, benefits cut, pensions liquidated.



*In my case, my pay was cut by 65%. You read that right, by 2003, I was left with a paycheck that was about 1/3 of what I had in 2001.

In addition, my company stock, which I couldn't sell under the ESOP, was liquidated for $750. It had been over $100,000.


Geez, I mean I was expecting that your retirement took a hit from Ch.11 and of course this downturn hit 40x plans a lot (I opened mine 7 days ago and did not want to look at it anymore).
Let just hope they bailout with condition to keep workers in and then hope this will rebound.
I just cannot see this being long term option considering Southeast keeps living like nothing happened.


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Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: Tdog02] #5382554 03/22/20 12:13 AM
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meadows Offline
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I think the virus has just started. Canceled all summer plans today.

Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: edyvw] #5389449 03/30/20 01:22 PM
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ragtoplvr Offline
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Incompletely trained doctors and nurses are way better than nothing, They have no experience, people will die that an experienced Dr could have possibly saved. Nursing mistakes will occur from a lack of experience. Some means needs to exist to protect these trainees from career ending mistakes until this is over and they have the chance to complete their training.

Rod

Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: Tdog02] #5389451 03/30/20 01:27 PM
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CT8 Offline
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My Neighbor who retired as an AA captain and a life long friend that was a UAL A&P lost a huge chunk of their retirement $$$. The airline industry is brutal. Unless the Airplanes are running near full the cost to feed them is unbelievable.


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Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: meadows] #5389489 03/30/20 02:23 PM
Joined: Sep 2004
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Mr Nice Offline
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Originally Posted by meadows
I think the virus has just started. Canceled all summer plans today.


Cancelled business trips on American to Austin, San Diego , Milwaukee and Charlotte.

Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: Mr Nice] #5391218 04/01/20 07:09 PM
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fdcg27 Offline
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Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by meadows
I think the virus has just started. Canceled all summer plans today.


Cancelled business trips on American to Austin, San Diego , Milwaukee and Charlotte.


Just as well since those flights would have probably not operated anyway.
To think that over Thanksgiving week through mid-December we took a couple of five thousand mile round trips on AA with packed flights and busy airports and there were cheap one-stop connections from little DAY to just about anywhere in the world you might want to go.
How things have changed in just a few months.


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Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: Tdog02] #5392706 04/03/20 01:41 PM
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Our skies are usually filled with contrails of east/west flights but haven't seen one in several weeks now.

Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: Astro14] #5392968 04/03/20 06:54 PM
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domer10 Offline
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Originally Posted by Astro14
Originally Posted by edyvw
Originally Posted by Astro14

It will be interesting to see their decisions - run the old gas hog with oil at $30/bbl? Or make the lease payments on a $100+ million machine to save fuel?

The economics may favor delaying delivery of the Max until the traffic returns. Most of the legacy airlines have already cut capacity by 50%. Within the 50% that remain in service are some very fuel efficient airplanes. So, why take delivery of the new airplane when you've got airplanes that are already paid for? It's like trading a good used 35MPG Corolla in on a Prius, when the Corolla is paid for and the Prius comes with lease payments...and gas is $.50/gallon (which is where Jet A just ended up today - $26.15/BBL).

Are you flying?


I go back to work on Tuesday, after a couple weeks off. I'm on reserve next week. No idea what to expect, but since I typically fly a mix of domestic, Europe, and South America, I would guess that it'll be mostly domestic with all of the travel bans imposed by various countries, if I go to work at all. Flying has been cut by 50%. Half the flights have been canceled, and those that are operating have few passengers.

I am deeply concerned about the industry.

The losses are huge. 70% drop in revenue, billions of losses in March alone, for each of the major carriers. This can't be sustained for more than a month or two without collapse of the companies and the industry. Naturally my personal situation is deeply tied to the situation of my company.



What’s your take on the Max as far as do you think Boeing should have been made to submit this as a whole new model by the FAA due to the engines being more forward and higher? Could that have prevented this catastrophe, and pilots would have received proper training instead of a iPad tutorial?

Not a fan of the FAA, to many conflicts of interest.....as a majority of them magically end up in a high paying job for Boeing, or lobbying for them in Washington.


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Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: domer10] #5394901 04/05/20 08:01 PM
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MolaKule Offline
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Originally Posted by domer10


...Not a fan of the FAA, to many conflicts of interest.....as a majority of them magically end up in a high paying job for Boeing, or lobbying for them in Washington.


What personnel from the FAA has become lobbyists or have become employees of Boeing?


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Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: MolaKule] #5395049 04/05/20 11:42 PM
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edyvw Offline
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Originally Posted by MolaKule
Originally Posted by domer10


...Not a fan of the FAA, to many conflicts of interest.....as a majority of them magically end up in a high paying job for Boeing, or lobbying for them in Washington.


What personnel from the FAA has become lobbyists or have become employees of Boeing?

FAA has problem attracting talent as industry pays much better. Of course there are those who look at public service as calling, but it is struggle. Constant political bickering over budget is not helping.


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Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: edyvw] #5395800 04/06/20 07:10 PM
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fdcg27 Offline
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Originally Posted by edyvw
Originally Posted by MolaKule
Originally Posted by domer10


...Not a fan of the FAA, to many conflicts of interest.....as a majority of them magically end up in a high paying job for Boeing, or lobbying for them in Washington.


What personnel from the FAA has become lobbyists or have become employees of Boeing?

FAA has problem attracting talent as industry pays much better. Of course there are those who look at public service as calling, but it is struggle. Constant political bickering over budget is not helping.


Depends upon what level you're at.
At the exempt levels in industry, where most of these people would be, you're at the whims of the bosses while in government service you enjoy job tenure unless you do something egregiously and indefensibly wrong.
Most of those with talent are in the higher GS grades, which pay rather well.
They also feature real pensions, something no longer found in industry.
A little bickering over the administration budget would seem preferable to the current inventory of undelivered and not paid for airliners combined with the current tsunami of order cancellations for frames not yet built.
The FAA guys must be feeling a little schadenfreude looking at their classmates who went to work in the industry grasping for the brass ring. The FAA guys still have and will have paid employment.


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Re: 737 max... what now? [Re: fdcg27] #5396004 04/06/20 11:55 PM
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edyvw Offline
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Originally Posted by fdcg27
Originally Posted by edyvw
Originally Posted by MolaKule
Originally Posted by domer10


...Not a fan of the FAA, to many conflicts of interest.....as a majority of them magically end up in a high paying job for Boeing, or lobbying for them in Washington.


What personnel from the FAA has become lobbyists or have become employees of Boeing?

FAA has problem attracting talent as industry pays much better. Of course there are those who look at public service as calling, but it is struggle. Constant political bickering over budget is not helping.


Depends upon what level you're at.
At the exempt levels in industry, where most of these people would be, you're at the whims of the bosses while in government service you enjoy job tenure unless you do something egregiously and indefensibly wrong.
Most of those with talent are in the higher GS grades, which pay rather well.
They also feature real pensions, something no longer found in industry.
A little bickering over the administration budget would seem preferable to the current inventory of undelivered and not paid for airliners combined with the current tsunami of order cancellations for frames not yet built.
The FAA guys must be feeling a little schadenfreude looking at their classmates who went to work in the industry grasping for the brass ring. The FAA guys still have and will have paid employment.

I do not think current situation is good example. This is not something people would expect (though in my field it is always expected).
FAA at higher GS levels cannot pay what industry is paying. yes some people will go for retirement etc. same like in military. Industry was paying lately much more as there was shortage of pilots etc. Now, yes, those at FAA enjoy their tenure and some would like that they are at FAA, but I think in the end everyone at that level will be fine as airline industry is national security issue.


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