Stock market!!!!

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Originally Posted by RazorsEdge
Originally Posted by gfh77665
Originally Posted by ZeeOSix

But yes, as time goes on and all the unemployment numbers and company losses are reported it's got to put a damper on the outlook of the economy and therefore the outlook of the stock market.


Thats presuming that there is never any medical breakthroughs or any good news on the horizon. Yes, if you believe that all things will only spiral downward from here, with nothing ever improving, then you are correct.

I don't share that view.


Exactly

You want to go through life looking at the negative, then that only reflects upon you and the others who around you as well. For me, that's toxic and unhealthy.


I think it's also a view of possible reality. The longer businesses and people are out of work, the more chance there will be that many small businesses will not survive and most likely fold under (won't be rehiring tons of people, more unemployment than before, bankruptcies, foreclosures, etc).

Unless Uncle Sam bails everyone out for free, there will be a pretty substantial financial hit to most businesses, and that will hamper them in the future and it will take a long time to get back in the black. That's just basic business finance common sense.

This isn't going to suddenly change back to all sun and roses quickly ... there will be pain for many businesses to get back close to normal. IMO, it will be a relatively slow recovery ... but it will recover.
 
Originally Posted by RazorsEdge
Originally Posted by gfh77665
Originally Posted by ZeeOSix

But yes, as time goes on and all the unemployment numbers and company losses are reported it's got to put a damper on the outlook of the economy and therefore the outlook of the stock market.


Thats presuming that there is never any medical breakthroughs or any good news on the horizon. Yes, if you believe that all things will only spiral downward from here, with nothing ever improving, then you are correct.

I don't share that view.




Exactly

You want to go through life looking at the negative, then that only reflects upon you and the others who around you as well. For me, that's toxic and unhealthy.

I'm negative as can be because 90% of who I interact with are the poorest behaving 10% of society it seems. That said, even I think this thing is going to shore up faster than people are saying/implying.
 
Originally Posted by dblshock
we're living in a nightmare...SPXU

Why would anyone have bought SPXU in ever? It looks horrible and always has. I am new to the market, so educate me.
 
The silver lining here is that for once in history the whole world is on side in this battle and pulling together.

The breakout will be a rocket ride
 
Originally Posted by Ws6
Originally Posted by dblshock
we're living in a nightmare...SPXU

Why would anyone have bought SPXU in ever? It looks horrible and always has. I am new to the market, so educate me.

Its an inverse ETF that is betting the market will drop in the future. Which it will definitely drop big time when full blown recession and unemployment hits.




Anybody paying attention to the Q Ratio ?
Peter Leeds is always talking about it.
 
SPXU is for those who sit in front of computer screens all day. Those types of ETFs can bite you in the rear when you least expect.

A recession is not the end of the world in and of itself. One has to look at what triggered it. In this case it's unusual.

Extreme examples of downturns are the Great Depression and the 1966-1982 secular bear market. We have nothing in the cards to suggest this situation will be like those periods.
 
stocks were bid up in anticipation of funds reallocating bond/stock ratios going into end of this quarter.
 
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'SPXU is for those who sit in front of computer screens all day.'....most of us have a smart phone in pocket...keep mine on dash when traveling.
 
I dont have a positive or negative view of the market. I try to stay realistic on what I know.
This is what I know.
Based on what I think future earnings will be for at least the next 2 quarters I think the market is overpriced. Maybe way overpriced.
We are seeing unfold before our eyes something never seen in modern times so I am not sure if there is a right or wrong, only what is happening at the moment.

This is what I think is happening at the moment. Keep in mind I am a believer that the market reflects current thinking and earnings projections, with that said =
1. They Haven't been able to figure out how bad earnings will be yet.
2. Day by day, including just yesterday some of the worlds largest companies are shutting down operations, laying off people based on what those corporations are seeing. Keep in mind, this a global, not just any one economy, the entire world shutting down.
3. United States, I dont think 2 trillion dollars will buy us out of anything. I do think it will keep the "bread lines" and starving people as in the late 1920s./early 30s out of the streets for now.
But how long can a government print phoney money and give to its people?

Anyway. Let me first say I am fully invested. But I have this strong sense that we (Or I) maybe kidding ourselves.
Just like we never imagined a science fiction type of virus spreading around the world, Im not sure, with all the damage and damage being done to the economy that we will just by some miracle end this virus in a month or two and get back to a normal life.
I think this is what the current market is telling us, even though its gone up a lot I look at that more as technical market related reasons, I honestly dont think this market can be supported, too many unknowns, we still have NO CLUE how bad things can get in the USA or possibly not get to bad. There is no way to know. My fear is a reset in the market to a point as low as decades ago, if manufacturing and profits go back to that level as well.

But then again, what do I know? I could change my mind tomorrow and like I said, I am fully invested and looking to invest some more.
Just dont invest what you cant afford to lose and at this time, what we think we can afford to lose maybe wrong !*L*

I just got this bad feeling that the chance and I stress chance that financial life/health and well being in the United States (as well as the world) could possibly be in for a "reset" so far back it time that it hits us as hard as the expected virus did, yet I still may buy more stock, so what do I know?
All I do know, in life, never say never, just like we never thought this virus was so uncontrollable in our so called "modern" times. Its going to be a rocky ride.

(now aint that something, I just finished this post, new update from Goldman Sachs, expect unemployment to hit 15% and then what happens next month when the 15% is hit? Does that number get revised to 25%)
Like I say, Im not even sure I can comprehend what all this means and the impact all I do know is I see it all around me, the layoffs, lost jobs and VERY nervous people about losing their jobs, salary cuts ranging from 10 to 20%, its all just starting, not close to being done, add to that the debt load of the average American, like oh my god)
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted by alarmguy
I dont have a positive or negative view of the market. I try to stay realistic on what I know.
This is what I know.
Based on what I think future earnings will be for at least the next 2 quarters I think the market is overpriced. Maybe way overpriced.
We are seeing unfold before our eyes something never seen in modern times so I am not sure if there is a right or wrong, only what is happening at the moment.

This is what I think is happening at the moment. Keep in mind I am a believer that the market reflects current thinking and earnings projections, with that said =
1. They Haven't been able to figure out how bad earnings will be yet.
2. Day by day, including just yesterday some of the worlds largest companies are shutting down operations, laying off people based on what those corporations are seeing. Keep in mind, this a global, not just any one economy, the entire world shutting down.
3. United States, I dont think 2 trillion dollars will buy us out of anything. I do think it will keep the "bread lines" and starving people as in the late 1920s./early 30s out of the streets for now.
But how long can a government print phoney money and give to its people?

Anyway. Let me first say I am fully invested. But I have this strong sense that we (Or I) maybe kidding ourselves.
Just like we never imagined a science fiction type of virus spreading around the world, Im not sure, with all the damage and damage being done to the economy that we will just by some miracle end this virus in a month or two and get back to a normal life.
I think this is what the current market is telling us, even though its gone up a lot I look at that more as technical market related reasons, I honestly dont think this market can be supported, too many unknowns, we still have NO CLUE how bad things can get in the USA or possibly not get to bad. There is no way to know. My fear is a reset in the market to a point as low as decades ago, if manufacturing and profits go back to that level as well.

But then again, what do I know? I could change my mind tomorrow and like I said, I am fully invested and looking to invest some more.
Just dont invest what you cant afford to lose and at this time, what we think we can afford to lose maybe wrong !*L*

I just got this bad feeling that the chance and I stress chance that financial life/health and well being in the United States (as well as the world) could possibly be in for a "reset" so far back it time that it hits us as hard as the expected virus did, yet I still may buy more stock, so what do I know?
All I do know, in life, never say never, just like we never thought this virus was so uncontrollable in our so called "modern" times. Its going to be a rocky ride.

(now aint that something, I just finished this post, new update from Goldman Sachs, expect unemployment to hit 15% and then what happens next month when the 15% is hit? Does that number get revised to 25%)
Like I say, Im not even sure I can comprehend what all this means and the impact all I do know is I see it all around me, the layoffs, lost jobs and VERY nervous people about losing their jobs, salary cuts ranging from 10 to 20%, its all just starting, not close to being done, add to that the debt load of the average American, like oh my god)



It might go over 30%.
 
alarmguy,

If that's your views then you need to liquidate everything. Run to the exits....

Why stay in if there's sooo much terrible news on the way ???

You answered all your questions.
 
I think you have to separate your personal opinions of the world from the overall market dynamics. I fully agree the economy is in bad shape, the transportation and hospitality industry are in serious trouble, but that has nothing to do with the stock market. Im looking at a market which is still tremendously oversold right now.

IMHO, the OIH is looking mighty good right now.
 
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
alarmguy,

If that's your views then you need to liquidate everything. Run to the exits....

Why stay in if there's sooo much terrible news on the way ???

You answered all your questions.

They sound like words from someone who doesn't know what he is talking about and getting ready to panic and bail.
 
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If you still have a long time horizon to invest, instead of panicking look at which sectors and which companies will get through this and continue on. Look for new trends that have started with this situation and which companies can capitalize on those trends.

Having a negative mindset in money matters is a emotional reaction and investing and emotion rarely work together.
 
Originally Posted by Lubener
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
alarmguy,

If that's your views then you need to liquidate everything. Run to the exits....

Why stay in if there's sooo much terrible news on the way ???

You answered all your questions.

They sound like words from someone who doesn't know what he is talking about and getting ready to panic and bail.


Just trying to give my personal advice and help some people here.
49.gif


Heck, I even post open jobs in the Off Topic section trying to help people. These are not McJobs and actually very good jobs with excellent training, benefits and opportunities. Been posting jobs for approximately 4 years.

Nothing wrong trying to help out.
21.gif
 
Please discuss the stock market, only.

I've deleted inappropriate political/COVID-19 discussion.
 
Originally Posted by dblshock
Jeffrey Gundlach says the coronavirus sell-off will worsen again in April, taking out the March low...


Jeffie




Take anything Gundlach says with plenty of salt 🧂. He is in the business of selling products.
 
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