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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: Mr Nice] #5387208 03/27/20 05:28 PM
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Ws6 Offline
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Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Use the PPT and manipulation to your benefit. 2cents

I'm definitely using the mass panic to my benefit. Also, if I am quarantined due to contracting this thing and can't work, I will have *something* to pay my bills with, even if the amount has not matured. Today was kindof an "oof", but I am still up 20% total overall were I to have to cash out right now.

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5387222 03/27/20 06:00 PM
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dishdude Offline
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The good news high of the stimulus getting passed has already worn off, be ready for an onslaught of bad news over the next few weeks as UI claims climb, quarterly earnings are revised downward and another potential outbreak or two somewhere else in the country occurs. I'm mostly in cash right now and trying to figure out when to start buying. I was second guessing not dipping in a bit last weekend but today proved this market is still highly volatile.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: alarmguy] #5387230 03/27/20 06:12 PM
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ZeeOSix Offline
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Originally Posted by alarmguy
Using the words gains and losses is meaningless.

1. There are unrealized gains and losses
2. Then there is the real thing "realized gains and losses"

Yes, its nice to see unrealized gains but its not a financial gain until its sold. Lets be clear on that because a lot of newer investors post about how good they did in the last two weeks which means piddly doo unless we know they sold the stock or still invested.


Regardless, people want to see their investments go up, not down ... because they may want to sell at any time depending on their circumstances. Most investors look at the numbers on paper and equate that to real money, because it does become real money with the action of selling the stock. Really not much different than looking at your bank checking and/or savings account numbers and knowing it's real money as soon as you take it out of the account.

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: dishdude] #5387364 03/27/20 08:35 PM
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Ws6 Offline
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Originally Posted by dishdude
The good news high of the stimulus getting passed has already worn off, be ready for an onslaught of bad news over the next few weeks as UI claims climb, quarterly earnings are revised downward and another potential outbreak or two somewhere else in the country occurs. I'm mostly in cash right now and trying to figure out when to start buying. I was second guessing not dipping in a bit last weekend but today proved this market is still highly volatile.


Agreed. "Catching the knife" is important to a short-term (1 year) plan like mine, and I missed it with Delta, but nailed it with a few others. I think I'm in it, for now. Will see how it plays out, but I feel like if I'm a loser at this game after 1 year, I have far bigger problems than the $2500 blow to my ego, because that will mean some very bad things for the world.

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: dishdude] #5387395 03/27/20 09:07 PM
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Mr Nice Offline
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Originally Posted by dishdude
The good news high of the stimulus getting passed has already worn off, be ready for an onslaught of bad news over the next few weeks as UI claims climb, quarterly earnings are revised downward and another potential outbreak or two somewhere else in the country occurs. I'm mostly in cash right now and trying to figure out when to start buying. I was second guessing not dipping in a bit last weekend but today proved this market is still highly volatile.

Yep. + 100000%



Ws6,

Just remember that ‘hypothetical’ unrealized gains are just that. Those gains can very easily vaporize in a matter of days if you are trying to keep ____ stock for a year just to try and pay less taxes (long term capital gains taxes).




Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: dishdude] #5387399 03/27/20 09:10 PM
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JOD Offline
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Originally Posted by dishdude
The good news high of the stimulus getting passed has already worn off, be ready for an onslaught of bad news over the next few weeks as UI claims climb, quarterly earnings are revised downward and another potential outbreak or two somewhere else in the country occurs. I'm mostly in cash right now and trying to figure out when to start buying. I was second guessing not dipping in a bit last weekend but today proved this market is still highly volatile.


Yeah, this is still my take. I thought about pushing a % of the big pile in early on day 2 of the rally. Had some regrets not doing it, but now pretty good with the decision. I think there is lower to go. For my major part of my portfolio, I'm going to start dumping it back into VFIFX at $28 and VTHRX at $26 and $24. I'll adjust the buy prices up or down if there's some insane news, but I'm getting close to just setting the target and then letting it do its thing.

I'll still play w/a small portion with day trades, which has gone insanely well, mostly thanks to the Boeing and CCL.

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: Mr Nice] #5387443 03/27/20 09:47 PM
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Ws6 Offline
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Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by dishdude
The good news high of the stimulus getting passed has already worn off, be ready for an onslaught of bad news over the next few weeks as UI claims climb, quarterly earnings are revised downward and another potential outbreak or two somewhere else in the country occurs. I'm mostly in cash right now and trying to figure out when to start buying. I was second guessing not dipping in a bit last weekend but today proved this market is still highly volatile.

Yep. + 100000%



Ws6,

Just remember that ‘hypothetical’ unrealized gains are just that. Those gains can very easily vaporize in a matter of days if you are trying to keep ____ stock for a year just to try and pay less taxes (long term capital gains taxes).




Yup. Still, I feel like their full potential is months out. I tried to time it with my 1 year mark, more or less.

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5387559 03/28/20 05:43 AM
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Amkeer Offline
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We have a ways to go before the recovery happens. As mentioned before we will have a rally that will get sold into then continue the decent. That has not changed. Corporate earnings are based on quarters of a year, not weeks or months. My original range of selling off was between about 15000-19000+-. We hit just about 18000. Unfortunately, we still have a long recovery period ahead of us. So 15000 still remains the lower end of the range for me at this point. People are still too bullish on stocks which means we still have a ways to go.


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: Amkeer] #5387596 03/28/20 07:17 AM
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alarmguy Offline
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Originally Posted by Amkeer
We have a ways to go before the recovery happens. As mentioned before we will have a rally that will get sold into then continue the decent. That has not changed. Corporate earnings are based on quarters of a year, not weeks or months. My original range of selling off was between about 15000-19000+-. We hit just about 18000. Unfortunately, we still have a long recovery period ahead of us. So 15000 still remains the lower end of the range for me at this point. People are still too bullish on stocks which means we still have a ways to go.


You've been on the money and I agree with your thinking, not that it matters. *L*
I remain fully invested, considering what the market has done I feel good being down only 4.5% for the last 12 months and honestly that is the low end, depending on the market for the day it goes into the positive as well.
I made a blunder by mistake right before the market started going down, literally days before I bought a bank stock (WFC), its all ok, bank, good dividend and will/is rebounding but I did not want the stock in the account/portoflio I purchased it in which Is a Roth that I use to trade and then like a fool I watched it go south, I should have bailed. This is out of character for me, I dont make mistakes like this*L*and normally smart enough to bail.
Anyway, its tied up capital now, at a time when I see as well as everyone else some nice buys, at the same time, WFC will tread higher, anyway... whatever ... *L*

Back to what you were saying, me the skeptic, sometimes to a disadvantage, agree with you. I am not yet convinced the market is priced for the possible bloodbath in earnings coming for the next two quarters.
I think your floor of around 15000 is correct, this market is truly in uncharted territory, compounded world wide, I dont think its impossible for things to cascade out of control, meaning in the true sense of the word depression, not recession, I also think its possible to stabilize. Heck I dont know!

Im talking the world stage, we dont know what business failures may take place or if the house of cards continue to tumble. I suspect not but what is taking place is unprecedented, Im not really that active with the market and certainly do not know the world markets to the point that I follow them but all of them right now are unstable enough to trigger another event, then again, what do I know? I know one thing, its not all roses yet, the question is when? .



Last edited by alarmguy; 03/28/20 07:27 AM.

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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5388166 03/28/20 05:47 PM
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Increasing unemployment numbers, increasing defaults on loans, home foreclosures, dismal earnings reports , etc... will all have a negative effect on the markets for the next 6 months.

Nobody could of predicted this black swan to affect the entire globe in such a short timeframe and having so much bad news all at once.

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: Mr Nice] #5388173 03/28/20 05:50 PM
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ZeeOSix Offline
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Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Increasing unemployment numbers, increasing defaults on loans, home foreclosures, dismal earnings reports , etc... will all have a negative effect on the markets for the next 6 months.

Nobody could of predicted this black swan to affect the entire globe in such a short timeframe and having so much bad news all at once.


Yep ... definitely many multi-ripple effects that will take some time to rebound from. It will be nowhere close to the near instant "V" recovery curve seen in past downturns.

Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5388200 03/28/20 06:25 PM
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next 2 weeks will be a very grim news cycle, think you'll see your retest, we'll see if it's able to hold, I have doubts.

Last edited by dblshock; 03/28/20 06:40 PM.

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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5388314 03/28/20 09:55 PM
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uncertainty...SPXU


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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5388465 03/29/20 08:45 AM
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Re: Stock market!!!!😯 [Re: motor_oil_madman] #5388477 03/29/20 08:54 AM
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Can we find anything to be positive about? I know these are bad times but alot of the bad things happening allegedly because of the virus are being driven intentionally, don't ya think??


No this had never happened before and no things will never be the same but the constant negative talk serves no good and I am a NEGATIVE person!

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