Stock market!!!!

[JOD]

Originally Posted by dishdude
The good news high of the stimulus getting passed has already worn off, be ready for an onslaught of bad news over the next few weeks as UI claims climb, quarterly earnings are revised downward and another potential outbreak or two somewhere else in the country occurs. I'm mostly in cash right now and trying to figure out when to start buying. I was second guessing not dipping in a bit last weekend but today proved this market is still highly volatile.


Yeah, this is still my take. I thought about pushing a % of the big pile in early on day 2 of the rally. Had some regrets not doing it, but now pretty good with the decision. I think there is lower to go. For my major part of my portfolio, I'm going to start dumping it back into VFIFX at $28 and VTHRX at $26 and $24. I'll adjust the buy prices up or down if there's some insane news, but I'm getting close to just setting the target and then letting it do its thing.

I'll still play w/a small portion with day trades, which has gone insanely well, mostly thanks to the Boeing and CCL.

 

[Ws6]

Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by dishdude
The good news high of the stimulus getting passed has already worn off, be ready for an onslaught of bad news over the next few weeks as UI claims climb, quarterly earnings are revised downward and another potential outbreak or two somewhere else in the country occurs. I'm mostly in cash right now and trying to figure out when to start buying. I was second guessing not dipping in a bit last weekend but today proved this market is still highly volatile.

Yep. + 100000%



Ws6,

Just remember that ‘hypothetical' unrealized gains are just that. Those gains can very easily vaporize in a matter of days if you are trying to keep ____ stock for a year just to try and pay less taxes (long term capital gains taxes).




Yup. Still, I feel like their full potential is months out. I tried to time it with my 1 year mark, more or less.

 

[Amkeer]

We have a ways to go before the recovery happens. As mentioned before we will have a rally that will get sold into then continue the decent. That has not changed. Corporate earnings are based on quarters of a year, not weeks or months. My original range of selling off was between about 15000-19000+-. We hit just about 18000. Unfortunately, we still have a long recovery period ahead of us. So 15000 still remains the lower end of the range for me at this point. People are still too bullish on stocks which means we still have a ways to go.

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted by Amkeer
We have a ways to go before the recovery happens. As mentioned before we will have a rally that will get sold into then continue the decent. That has not changed. Corporate earnings are based on quarters of a year, not weeks or months. My original range of selling off was between about 15000-19000+-. We hit just about 18000. Unfortunately, we still have a long recovery period ahead of us. So 15000 still remains the lower end of the range for me at this point. People are still too bullish on stocks which means we still have a ways to go.


You've been on the money and I agree with your thinking, not that it matters. *L*
I remain fully invested, considering what the market has done I feel good being down only 4.5% for the last 12 months and honestly that is the low end, depending on the market for the day it goes into the positive as well.
I made a blunder by mistake right before the market started going down, literally days before I bought a bank stock (WFC), its all ok, bank, good dividend and will/is rebounding but I did not want the stock in the account/portoflio I purchased it in which Is a Roth that I use to trade and then like a fool I watched it go south, I should have bailed. This is out of character for me, I dont make mistakes like this*L*and normally smart enough to bail.
Anyway, its tied up capital now, at a time when I see as well as everyone else some nice buys, at the same time, WFC will tread higher, anyway... whatever ... *L*

Back to what you were saying, me the skeptic, sometimes to a disadvantage, agree with you. I am not yet convinced the market is priced for the possible bloodbath in earnings coming for the next two quarters.
I think your floor of around 15000 is correct, this market is truly in uncharted territory, compounded world wide, I dont think its impossible for things to cascade out of control, meaning in the true sense of the word depression, not recession, I also think its possible to stabilize. Heck I dont know!

Im talking the world stage, we dont know what business failures may take place or if the house of cards continue to tumble. I suspect not but what is taking place is unprecedented, Im not really that active with the market and certainly do not know the world markets to the point that I follow them but all of them right now are unstable enough to trigger another event, then again, what do I know? I know one thing, its not all roses yet, the question is when? .

 

[Mr Nice]

Increasing unemployment numbers, increasing defaults on loans, home foreclosures, dismal earnings reports , etc... will all have a negative effect on the markets for the next 6 months.

Nobody could of predicted this black swan to affect the entire globe in such a short timeframe and having so much bad news all at once.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Increasing unemployment numbers, increasing defaults on loans, home foreclosures, dismal earnings reports , etc... will all have a negative effect on the markets for the next 6 months.

Nobody could of predicted this black swan to affect the entire globe in such a short timeframe and having so much bad news all at once.


Yep ... definitely many multi-ripple effects that will take some time to rebound from. It will be nowhere close to the near instant "V" recovery curve seen in past downturns.

 

[dblshock]

next 2 weeks will be a very grim news cycle, think you'll see your retest, we'll see if it's able to hold, I have doubts.

 

[dblshock]

uncertainty...SPXU

 

[Mr Nice]

Stuff like this will be happening in all cities.

https://www.independent.com/2020/03...ll-sends-out-hundreds-of-layoff-notices/

 

[007]

Can we find anything to be positive about? I know these are bad times but alot of the bad things happening allegedly because of the virus are being driven intentionally, don't ya think??


No this had never happened before and no things will never be the same but the constant negative talk serves no good and I am a NEGATIVE person!

 

[Mr Nice]

I'm in the healthcare industry and see and hear things that are NOT reported on the news....

The situation is a lot worse than the guy who wants the USA back to normal by Easter thinks it is.

The bad news will definitely worsen whether folks want to acknowledge it or not.

 

[007]

I work in a profession that has just as much if not more information regarding what going on. That said there are factors that are NOT related to the virus that are being put into play here to create panic and serve an agenda. If I got any deeper on this thought it would violate what we are NOT allowed to talk about. You actually touched on it a bit yourself.

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted by Mr Nice
I'm in the healthcare industry and see and hear things that are NOT reported on the news....

The situation is a lot worse than the guy who wants the USA back to normal by Easter thinks it is.

The bad news will definitely worsen whether folks want to acknowledge it or not.




One of the largest health care and hospital organizations in the State of SC is laying off people.
https://www.wltx.com/article/news/h...101-ad242fe9-409f-4814-a181-896ea4ed3efb

Anyway, this thread is about the STOCK MARKET, not the virus and not politics please don get it shut down, maybe the moderators can delete these two posts (or just your post*L*)

 

[007]

That's exactly my point!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Mr Nice]

Back on Topic:

Tons of great buying opportunities in the near future. I have a little cash on the sidelines waiting to be put to use.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Originally Posted by 007
Can we find anything to be positive about? I know these are bad times but alot of the bad things happening allegedly because of the virus are being driven intentionally, don't ya think??


So the whole world is pushing all of this "alleged" stuff going on in some kind of "intentional" way for some reason ... guess it's time to invest in an aluminum foil factory if you want to make some good investments.

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Back on Topic:

Tons of great buying opportunities in the near future. I have a little cash on the sidelines waiting to be put to use.



Yes, thank you. This is a excellent time to build cash and look for opportunities.

 

[007]

Originally Posted by ZeeOSix
Originally Posted by 007
Can we find anything to be positive about? I know these are bad times but alot of the bad things happening allegedly because of the virus are being driven intentionally, don't ya think??


So the whole world is pushing all of this "alleged" stuff going on in some kind of "intentional" way for some reason ... guess it's time to invest in an aluminum foil factory if you want to make some good investments.

Just trying to be positive with NO agenda. Been around long enough to know that bad things happen but together we can ALL get through this! Being negative and fueling the fire as they say does no good for anyone!!

 

[ZeeOSix]

Originally Posted by 007
Originally Posted by ZeeOSix
Originally Posted by 007
Can we find anything to be positive about? I know these are bad times but alot of the bad things happening allegedly because of the virus are being driven intentionally, don't ya think??

So the whole world is pushing all of this "alleged" stuff going on in some kind of "intentional" way for some reason ... guess it's time to invest in an aluminum foil factory if you want to make some good investments.

Just trying to be positive with NO agenda. Been around long enough to know that bad things happen but together we can ALL get through this! Being negative and fueling the fire as they say does no good for anyone!!


"Bad things" need to be identified, talked about and handled in an effective way to get them under control. Unfortunately, that's part of the whole process, and people can't go through it without both the good and the bad. As the saying goes. "you have to take the good with the bad" (Google it) ... that's the reality of life. The stock market is included.

 

[Ws6]

Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Back on Topic:

Tons of great buying opportunities in the near future. I have a little cash on the sidelines waiting to be put to use.

I think the worst has already come to pass, regarding the stock market. The initial "shock" when everyone freaked out tanked it below what it really should have tanked, IMO, and now it's just going to malinger a bit on its way up.