Stock market!!!!

[Navi]

Today is the day my corporate tax returns are due and Ive been working on that all morning. No time to come back here.

I originally set the stop to trigger in the open market, but I saw the volatility and canceled that. In the premarket it was shooting all over the place and I knew my stop would instantly get taken out at the open. I then averaged down at the open when I saw it dip below 240. Now its up to 250. Im convinced today is the bottom and Im sticking to that thesis. Also notice the gaps in trading which are more obvious on the charts that have extended trading displayed. My experience is when price drops this much in afterhours it always tends to fill that gap. So this was an ideal entry point.

I also took a position in the OIH at around 3.85.

As for TSLA, that has been dropping for a while now and I think well before the current news of today or the Saudi oil price war. There is no telling as to why. I wouldnt touch that. I am perfectly comfortable with the etfs at this point. Who knows whats going on exactly? It could be literally anything like maybe Elon Musk gets arrested for example or there is something really big that we dont know. Maybe its simply so overvalued its bound to fall.

I dont believe this entire situation in the news is a hoax, but its being played out way way too much. Back in 2005/2006 I was down in Florida for the various hurricanes and southern Florida looked like a nuclear bomb hit it. There were convoys of military trucks and workers. It was surreal and there was no power for weeks. It was miserable. Now thats a real situations, however, the current situation is so overblown that now I can understand "the madness of crowds" very very well.

...and I wont disrespect moderation so I will not be mentioning that "situation" by name per the new policy.

 

[PandaBear]

Also if you haven't read it in the news:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ktracks-on-proposal-for-free-virus-tests

With this kind of attitude a lot of people will die. The version I read in foreign media is much harsher than what Bloomberg said (they didn't translate what the Japanese twitters said, I'll stop it here before making this post locked).

 

[dareo]

TSLA gotta be going down a lot more. They just announced the Model Y can't tow. 954lb payload. You want me to spend 50k on a "suv" that cant tow or haul anything? When gas will be 1.50 or less soon? Hah.

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by dareo
TSLA gotta be going down a lot more. They just announced the Model Y can't tow. 954lb payload. You want me to spend 50k on a "suv" that cant tow or haul anything? When gas will be 1.50 or less soon? Hah.




Down a bit over 16% today so far.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by PimTac
Originally Posted by dareo
TSLA gotta be going down a lot more. They just announced the Model Y can't tow. 954lb payload. You want me to spend 50k on a "suv" that cant tow or haul anything? When gas will be 1.50 or less soon? Hah.




Down a bit over 16% today so far.


The shorts must be killing it today. Still, only knocked it back down to early January.

 

[JOD]

Originally Posted by dareo
TSLA gotta be going down a lot more. They just announced the Model Y can't tow. 954lb payload. You want me to spend 50k on a "suv" that cant tow or haul anything? When gas will be 1.50 or less soon? Hah.


Well, gas isn't going to be $1.50 a gallon in Tesla's biggest markets. Besides, I don't see Model Y customers carrying much about towing or gas prices. It's a crossover anyway.

While I'm not much for individual stocks, at $350 that's a falling knife I'd grab. Demand in China will rebound by Q2/Q3, and that's pretty key for them.

 

[zmelli]

I learned my lesson back in 2006-2009, I have been sitting on Mining Stocks. All my retirement accounts have been in safe haven assets. No worries here, however those counting on the stock market for a retirement check are probably more worried about their finiancial future than catching a Flu.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by dareo
TSLA gotta be going down a lot more. They just announced the Model Y can't tow. 954lb payload. You want me to spend 50k on a "suv" that cant tow or haul anything? When gas will be 1.50 or less soon? Hah.


Well, gas isn't going to be $1.50 a gallon in Tesla's biggest markets. Besides, I don't see Model Y customers carrying much about towing or gas prices. It's a crossover anyway.

While I'm not much for individual stocks, at $350 that's a falling knife I'd grab. Demand in China will rebound by Q2/Q3, and that's pretty key for them.


You're assuming a lot. How about all those business that were shut down? Many of them might go out of business. The same might happen here actually. So lots of people who might have bought might not have a job or a business. There's already talk of a recession and a contraction in the US.

 

[dareo]

Rack future gasoline down to 70 cents today so even in high tax states, sub 2.00 gas is going to happen. Perhaps as low as 1.00 in a few low tax areas like texas will be possible. Meanwhile the cost of electricity is still high. Hence Tesla has a lot more value to lose. I am a buyer below 300.00 only.

 

[M56959]

Please keep discussion financial. I've removed several off topic posts and would rather not close this topic

 

[Amkeer]

Down 3000 points. Too much too fast. Next support is 17989 or close to it. We need some kind of bounce here or it could really get ugly. The panic selling hasn't hit yet.

 

[Amkeer]

For reference. The last substantial bear market in October of 2007 thru till March 6, 2009. That is around 18 months. The market went from 14,000 to 6481 in that time frame. Over a 50% drop in 18 months. The current market 29,600 to 20,188 from February 12 to March 16. A month and a few days drop of 31%. No bottom that I can see as of yet. So we still are months and years away from a REAL bottom. The market tends to oscillate. I see another rally coming at some point that should bring the market some relief. It wouldn't be out of the realm to see it rally to 24900 then continue the descent. That could change as we have seen IMO.

What appears cheap today will be expensive tomorrow so be careful.

 

[PimTac]

In my estimation, any recession will be short lived. The fundamentals were very strong until two outside and out of the blue circumstances came in.

I can see a swift recovery as well as long as the current situation doesn't linger on for several months. Yes I've read the news but so much is conjecture and speculation.

The word recession is bandied about as the end of the world. It is not. I've been through several. You learn to adapt and tighten up a bit. It's inflation that I would worry about and right now I don't see that happening at this time.

Those of us who lived during the 1966-1982 secular bear market will know what pain really is.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Originally Posted by PimTac
In my estimation, any recession will be short lived. The fundamentals were very strong until two outside and out of the blue circumstances came in.

I can see a swift recovery as well as long as the current situation doesn't linger on for several months. Yes I've read the news but so much is conjecture and speculation.


Or was the stock market so over blown and hyped that when it does recover it won't be very swift because it will maybe more accurately reflect reality of the health of he economy?

Only time will tell.

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by ZeeOSix
Originally Posted by PimTac
In my estimation, any recession will be short lived. The fundamentals were very strong until two outside and out of the blue circumstances came in.

I can see a swift recovery as well as long as the current situation doesn't linger on for several months. Yes I've read the news but so much is conjecture and speculation.


Or was the stock market so over blown and hyped that when it does recover it won't be very swift because it will maybe more accurately reflect reality of the health of he economy?

Only time will tell.





Usually we never know until after the fact. The economy was doing very very well. Background inflation was in check, full employment yet a demand for labor for two reasons.

My worry would be Demand- Pull inflation. This would be sparked by demands for higher wages which we have seen. They have been moderated for the most part. Another worry is the fixed income markets. They have been killed off. They were the usual safe haven to balance out stock market volatility. That leaves gold and that means physical gold. The other sector is liquid alternatives but those are usually recommended for high net worth investors and not something to play around with.

 

[pitzel]

After similar highs in terms of P/E ratio, amounts of leverage/credit in the economy, etc., in 1929, the Dow went on to drop from about 380 down to about 41.

Cash (actual cash, not bank deposits), US Treasuries, gold, and gold miners were the big winners for the next decade.

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by pitzel
After similar highs in terms of P/E ratio, amounts of leverage/credit in the economy, etc., in 1929, the Dow went on to drop from about 380 down to about 41.

Cash (actual cash, not bank deposits), US Treasuries, gold, and gold miners were the big winners for the next decade.



That was then. The barter markets really flourished.

 

[JOD]

Originally Posted by PimTac


The economy was doing very very well.



I just want to point out that not everyone believes this, or believed it before the current crash. If you truly believe that, then I'd agree that a recession will be a relatively short lived event and we're close the floor.

Personally, I do not believe that, and haven't for a while. While I don't treat these things as gospel, the inverted yield curve, along with exploding debt levels and stock market/GPD levels were all pretty strong indicators that things were amiss.

Underpinning all of it in my mind is the Gini coefficient. We're at levels that exceeded the Gilded Age. No, I don't think we will hit a Great Depression style low, but in a consumer-based society such as we have, you need people to have money to buy things. When real wages for such a large percentage of people have been declining for decades, don't be surprised when an event like this puts consumers--who ultimate drive this and most modern economies--on their backs. There are going to be ripple effects that are going to last for a while, in my opinion.

I don't doubt there will be solid investment opportunities starting soon, but on the aggregate I personally think we are looking at recession and recovery period that is equal to or slightly greater than 2007-2009 recession. I would be thrilled to be wrong.

 

[RDY4WAR]

I'm seriously considering buying up a lot of stock in a couple of the major airlines while they are down, and then sell right before the holidays.

 

[alarmguy]

Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by alarmguy

Remember, just 10 years ago we had the Swine Flu, with almost no percussions because our government did nothing while 12,000 Americans died, simply because, every year 100,000 + Americans die from flu's and viruses.

What will be the reaction when 12,000 American are dead from the China Flu? How many understand that even happened 10 years ago, even scarier was 10 years ago it was killing young people more then old and its not even a thought on anyones mind?
Never mind that well over 20,000 and maybe 50,000 dead for this flu season alone simply by the everyday good old USA standard flu.



I stopped reading right here, because it's obviously that you're just listening to biased news sources that are not based in reality. That's probably why you are so misinformed.

First off, the government DID react to H1N1? There was a national emergency declared when there were 20 cases (not deaths) reported. Why not read what actually happened during the H1N1 pandemic instead of just believing random misinformation that you're regurgitating: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html

There was early action taken during the H1N1 outbreak, and the mortality rates were very low (.02%, vs 1 to 2%). These aren't even remotely close to the same thing?

It's clear you're looking at everything through a heavily biased filter and getting your news sources that are incredibly slanted, so it's really hard to give credence to anything else you have to say. This is probably why you've failed to realize from the very beginning the severity of the crisis.


Your post is biased because this has not played out yet, and you do not post information as to what you claim as fact, so you are only speculating on the statistics of what is going to happen, but Ill stop right here because enough said and not a virus thread.

We are not allowed to get into politics or I would have more to say.
But here are the facts, I love reading posts void of facts, I wish more people would post real sources of true information. 1000 dead before Time Flu was declared an emergency by the last administration.
There is no denying this = https://www.factcheck.org/2009/11/swine-flu-emergency/