Originally Posted by spackard
From a Dave Harig (@DaveHarig) on Twitter:
Flu: 15MM Infected:9K deaths = 0.06% mortality rate with a viral reproductive factor
WuFlu: 900 infected:26 deaths = 3% mortality rate with a viral reproductive factor >3.6
Net: 50x more deadly. 3x more contagious. No vaccine. No heard immunity.
Reason to freak!
Yeah... This is no "the flu", and it's a real thing.
Originally Posted by alarmguy
Like rodents, spark fear in humans and they will always rally around a leader to protect them.
Create a fear and people will rally.
No offense, but I don't think you really understand modern China, or the mindset of the average Chinese (if you're referring to the impact this will have on China). You're thinking like an American.
This is the worst possible sort of thing for the govt to retain control. People have ceded all of their rights to the govt in exchange for protection and prosperity. That's how their social contract works. Yeah, as an American, it's weird to me--but that's their system. That's why the majority of people there are totally OK with CCTV everywhere, facial recognition, and "social scores". The biggest risk of this breaking down is when bad things happen, and the average person wonders "the govt has all of the control, why aren't they fixing this!?". This is the communists' worst nightmare, which is why they're in panic mode.
If this were some small village, they've have just burned it to the ground and engaged in a massive cover-up, but Wuhan isn't some small village, and there are way too many people there with twitter and facebook, running VPN's. I realize the numbers sound small right now, but mark my words: this will present a much bigger challenge to China than the trade war. I enjoy traveling in China, and I hope I'm wrong.
From a Dave Harig (@DaveHarig) on Twitter:
Flu: 15MM Infected:9K deaths = 0.06% mortality rate with a viral reproductive factor
WuFlu: 900 infected:26 deaths = 3% mortality rate with a viral reproductive factor >3.6
Net: 50x more deadly. 3x more contagious. No vaccine. No heard immunity.
Reason to freak!
Yeah... This is no "the flu", and it's a real thing.
Originally Posted by alarmguy
Like rodents, spark fear in humans and they will always rally around a leader to protect them.
Create a fear and people will rally.
No offense, but I don't think you really understand modern China, or the mindset of the average Chinese (if you're referring to the impact this will have on China). You're thinking like an American.
This is the worst possible sort of thing for the govt to retain control. People have ceded all of their rights to the govt in exchange for protection and prosperity. That's how their social contract works. Yeah, as an American, it's weird to me--but that's their system. That's why the majority of people there are totally OK with CCTV everywhere, facial recognition, and "social scores". The biggest risk of this breaking down is when bad things happen, and the average person wonders "the govt has all of the control, why aren't they fixing this!?". This is the communists' worst nightmare, which is why they're in panic mode.
If this were some small village, they've have just burned it to the ground and engaged in a massive cover-up, but Wuhan isn't some small village, and there are way too many people there with twitter and facebook, running VPN's. I realize the numbers sound small right now, but mark my words: this will present a much bigger challenge to China than the trade war. I enjoy traveling in China, and I hope I'm wrong.