Originally Posted by alarmguy
Anyway, if you want a sure thing, I say start collecting at age 62 in order to start getting back the decades upon decades of contributions you made. If you die, what the heck, depending if you have a spouse or not, the government keeps the money, not like its going to be passed on to your kids.
After pouring money in for your whole life, the government expects you to die at around the age of 77/79 if you start collecting at age 62 that would be the break even point for getting the most amount of money back.
So, if your a gambler, sure, wait until 67/68 to start collecting and assume you will live to 82/83 in order to get the money back that you contributed by not collecting at 62. Of course if you do live that long, at that point you will start coming out significantly ahead for every year you live past that.
Doesnt make sense to me. Dont get me wrong, I was torn by the decision but heck, who knows how long you will live past 62?
If you wait to 67 who the heck knows if you are going to live to 82/83 or whatever to get the same amount of money back then if you collected at 62.
By all means, not everyone is in the same position to do the same thing, nothing wrong with waiting for the MAX payout if that is what one is comfortable with.
I guess the part that drives me nuts is some of the articles you read in the press, writers presenting themselves as knowing what is best for everyone, without explaining the benefits of start collecting at 62/63 for those that can afford it.
They always say people live longer then they expect, yet the facts are, the average male lives until 78 ish. I know we dont like to think so, but those are the facts.
I believe you mean well but I think some of your numbers are off which can affect the entire calculation you've just made.
It's one thing to talk about the average age being 78, but when you hit 62, you have an expected 20 years of life life, so it's actually 82. From birth you might be expected to average 78, but by making it to 62, it means you've beat out all those that died between 0-62 and the odds of living longer increase for every year that you make it through. Based on the chart I posted earlier, you probably have a better than 50% change of making it to 80. Only about 18% make it to 90 though.
It's basically a gamble either way. This is the difference between macro and micro. From the macro view, it's a safer gamble to take it later because the tables all say that you will live on average longer than the SS# use. Their numbers are actually outdated, it's supposed to be set up to be neutral when you take it, but people are actually living longer so from the macro view, it's safer to wait longer. However as we all said, if your health isn't good and you're gambling that you're going to die earlier than average, then taking it at 62 would make sense. It's just that the odds are that you will lose that gamble and have less in retirement.
I'm also not a fan of the mentality that you should take it early because you want to get the most out of because you paid into it. That has a high chance of burning you later when you live longer than you think. I've paid car insurance, homeowners insurance all these years too and I don't expect to get anything out of it either.