Pilot shortage.

[CT8]

My ex neighbor called up to wish me a Merry Christmas and we chatted . I asked him about his opinion on the pilot shortage [He was a Naval Aviator and retired an AA pilot] My thought was the military pooped out the best of the best pilots so what happened? He said the military wants 12 years of service, so the pilots go 8 more years because of the military retirement pay then go into Airline service if desired. Also with drones and Missiles there are less Military pilots.
What do you all think? The cost of Flight training is quite costly . And military pilots do the harder stuff in training and flying that the civilian trained pilot probably couldn't do.

 

[maxdustington]

I'm skeptical of job shortages.

"Shortages" seem to be code for: "We let our wages stagnate and now all the old dudes are retiring. We refuse to increase wages because it would cut into profits we used stagnant wages to gain.".

The only problem is that you can't get H1B pilots like you can in other industries. Making the positions financially attractive or investing in trainees would cost too much money.

2010s job market: Degree and 10 years+ experience for 2000s entry level wages.

 

[PimTac]

This makes sense for the military in order to retain pilots they have spent money on to train. Also, if you are in the military, that 8 year decision point is crucial. If you decide to Re-enlist then getting out at 12 years doesn't make sense since you are over halfway to twenty and the benefits.

On the other hand with the cost of pilot school and training, getting into civilian flying is enticing. If a young buck went into the military early on in life and got out around 40, they would have plenty of time to fly commercial.

 

[ragtoplvr]

This was a couple of years ago, at a funeral chatting to two brothers. One is a concert tuba player, makes over 50K a year in some moderate housing cost town, and good benefits and travel pay when they the orchestra travels. Got a generous scholarship to college student debt all paid after 4 years. Other is airline pilot, very little scholarship, debt out the wazoo. Fly's for a commuter airline, sleeps in the pilot lounge when he can, tiny apartment, no car. Half his income goes to pay off debt. He expects to make it to a major in 5 more years. Until then lots of Ramen noodles. Both practice or train many unpaid hours a week.

This is why there is a shortage. Even if it is corrected now, the pipeline is empty because so many chose other careers. It takes years of training to fly for even a commuter.

Rod

 

[Pelican]

There were many well paid jobs in the airline industry "Before Deregulation" From Pilots to Mechanics.
With deregulation the cost cutting began, now everyone wants low cost airlines, but that provide the service of before deregulation, Yeah Right!
Before deregulation all ocean crossing airplanes had to have 4 engine for safety and a flight engineer on board. The Ft engineer was the 1st to go, they claimed that he wasn't necessary due to technology, same as it was earlier with the Ft navigator, then it was the engines from 4 down to 2 again technology allows this, so they say.
What's following that is an erosion of salary for pilots that makes the job much less attractive and thereby the shortage.
One gets what one pays for!

Same shortage here in Canada too.

 

[IndyFan]

Originally Posted by Pelican
There were many well paid jobs in the airline industry "Before Deregulation" From Pilots to Mechanics.
With deregulation the cost cutting began, now everyone wants low cost airlines, but that provide the service of before deregulation, Yeah Right!
Before deregulation all ocean crossing airplanes had to have 4 engine for safety and a flight engineer on board. The Ft engineer was the 1st to go, they claimed that he wasn't necessary due to technology, same as it was earlier with the Ft navigator, then it was the engines from 4 down to 2 again technology allows this, so they say.
What's following that is an erosion of salary for pilots that makes the job much less attractive and thereby the shortage.
One gets what one pays for!

Same shortage here in Canada too.


I don't know what planet you lived on, but I remember flying before deregulation and it wasn't any better, other than attractive flight attendants and you got more food. The food was TERRIBLE though, and people smoked on the planes which was awful. Planes crashed more often, too. Flying costs less now and there is much more competition among the airlines.

Oh yeah, they lost luggage more often, too.

 

[WylieCoyote]

I felt sorry for the new-hire first officers when I was a flight attendant at ASA. Brazilia F.O.s were making similar money as me, and had education debt, which I didn't. Most of them worked 2nd jobs...some as waiters. Not a great way to compensate someone who's responsible for so much.

Airline crews aren't a happy bunch, unless they're very senior. No mystery that there's a shortage, if there really is one. Thin out the executive offices and make room for better pay would be my suggestion.

 

[E365]

The shortage is real. Pay at many regional airlines has gone up massively in the past 5 years.

The number of US Airline pilots who are age 60+ is very large. Mandatory retirement age is 65, and many will retire before they hit 65.

You can train at an independent FBO for way less than a big school like University of North Dakota, Embry Riddle, etc. With a good job market, one could be hired at a major airline before 30 years old.

 

[SatinSilver]

What's an FBO? Thanks!

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by E365
The shortage is real. Pay at many regional airlines has gone up massively in the past 5 years.

The number of US Airline pilots who are age 60+ is very large. Mandatory retirement age is 65, and many will retire before they hit 65.

You can train at an independent FBO for way less than a big school like University of North Dakota, Embry Riddle, etc. With a good job market, one could be hired at a major airline before 30 years old.




I can confirm this as I've heard the same thing from a young man I know who is flying for a regional right now. His washed have increased quite a bit over the last few years and he has spoken about another wave of pilots retiring in the near future.

 

[IndyFan]

Originally Posted by SatinSilver
What's an FBO? Thanks!


FIxed base operator. It is the company that takes care of fuel, parking, sometimes hangars, etc. at an airfield.

 

[maxdustington]

Originally Posted by E365
The shortage is real. Pay at many regional airlines has gone up massively in the past 5 years.

The number of US Airline pilots who are age 60+ is very large. Mandatory retirement age is 65, and many will retire before they hit 65.

You can train at an independent FBO for way less than a big school like University of North Dakota, Embry Riddle, etc. With a good job market, one could be hired at a major airline before 30 years old.
Why bother when you can learn a trade and have your own business by 30 and wear clean clothes? Or go into tech and make six figures in a trendy coastal city by 25? Yes, let's study to become a pilot which which almost for sure be automated to some degree within twenty years. That's the problem with both pilots and truck drivers: even kids can see that they are the next obsolete machine operator jobs on the horizon.

 

[eyeofthetiger]

We are going to have a passenger shortage, too, if they keep doing stuff like this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-50979485

Anyway, I'd rather be a crop duster and sleep in my own bed at night

 

[mk378]

A two engine plane that can keep going on one is more reliable than a four engine plane that needs three working.

 

[Mainia]

Originally Posted by ragtoplvr
This was a couple of years ago, at a funeral chatting to two brothers. One is a concert tuba player, makes over 50K a year in some moderate housing cost town, and good benefits and travel pay when they the orchestra travels. Got a generous scholarship to college student debt all paid after 4 years. Other is airline pilot, very little scholarship, debt out the wazoo. Fly's for a commuter airline, sleeps in the pilot lounge when he can, tiny apartment, no car. Half his income goes to pay off debt. He expects to make it to a major in 5 more years. Until then lots of Ramen noodles. Both practice or train many unpaid hours a week.

This is why there is a shortage. Even if it is corrected now, the pipeline is empty because so many chose other careers. It takes years of training to fly for even a commuter.

Rod


The liberal gets the gravy train as usual and is "feed" thru the cult.

 

[NO2]

The Military is still the best way to learn to fly. Go to college on ROTC, get an engineering degree, get thousands of multi-engine hours, stay in 20 years and get your 1/2 retirement @42 and lifetime health care, and finish off in your state National Guard while working for an airline, or take a higher paying pilot job overseas.

 

[WagonWheel]

A big contributor to the shortage was the increased minimum required flight experience following the Colgan Air crash in 2009. This "curtailed" the hiring pool for the regionals and thus the majors who are now facing waves of retirements.

Below is the FAA press release from 2013:

https://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases/news_story.cfm?newsId=14838

Quote
The rule requires first officers — also known as co-pilots — to hold an Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) certificate, requiring 1,500 hours total time as a pilot. Previously, first officers were required to have only a commercial pilot certificate, which requires 250 hours of flight time.

 

[WagonWheel]

Originally Posted by WylieCoyote
I felt sorry for the new-hire first officers when I was a flight attendant at ASA. Brazilia F.O.s were making similar money as me, and had education debt, which I didn't.


I knew some of them as well. They were able to work themselves up to the left seat of the CRJ in a few short years. Sure life was lean starting out but now it's not bad. Now they are flying B737/A320s at majors.

The real kick in the gut was the regionals would make you pay for your initial training once you were hired. Now that isn't the case.

 

[tomcat27]

simple single-engine planes cost $100-130 per hour to rent. high performance, complex, multi-engine planes cost alot more. $230+ per hour. all of this is before paying for instructors. 1500 hours of flight time are required before flying for a commercial airline; and entry level is gonna be regional with low pay. it takes a long time to get a good position with decent pay. yes, after 250 hours you can log your time as an instructor, so someone else is paying - but the whole thing is expensive. one of our local Universities says that the median graduate pay from their aviation program is $35k. uh, that's not much more than minimum wage in some states! (just kidding, sort of)

yes, the pilot shortage is real. my son wants to be a pilot; just got his solo. we are trying to figure the whole thing out.

 

[tomcat27]

just read a new story two days ago "737 Max issue is causing Boeing to accelerate their automated flying initiatives". I find this humorous, since the cause of the crashes has been flight automation trying to avoid a stall. Of course, IMHO, the root cause is engineering: you need to redesign the plane (raise the wings) when you add larger diameter engines.

Regardless, what if you spend years of time and tons of $ to become a pilot and your job is replaced by computers. (Skynet)

(this is all just humor, not trying to offend anyone)