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future new car prices-gas vs electric #5272105 11/19/19 07:51 PM
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1978elcamino Offline OP
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In the future we will see a transition from gas to electric vehicles for the average family commuter. Just wondering, when that time comes when there are just as many electric models on the lot as gas, will we see a reduction in gas vehicle prices or a possible plateau in electric vehicle prices? The price difference now is not very equal.

Just wondering if others have thoughts on this.


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Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272109 11/19/19 07:56 PM
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When they hit 20-50% market penetration the state's going to want their road tax.

Look at the honeymoon period of internet shopping, took them 15-20 years to figure out how to guarantee they're getting their cut.

Liquid fuel remains a dense, easily transported product. It won't go away entirely, especially in rural areas. They even have a couple diesel-powered electric car charging kiosks out in the sticks, but it makes sense if it assures the driver of 100% route coverage. People are going to want both, in the foreseable future, IMO.

There may be a "moores law" of electric gizmos that lets their price come down but there may also be "peak lithium" or other battery metals.

Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272124 11/19/19 08:19 PM
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JeffKeryk Offline
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Price is a function of supply vs demand.
If electric cars become a viable alternative, one woud expect petroleum prices to go down.
Sinmple.


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Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272143 11/19/19 08:43 PM
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Sales proportions will grow faster in urban areas, ownership costs will go up as the road use tax is implemented in other means than gasoline taxes.
Due to population growth and continued urban sprawl. Personal vehicle ownership will continue to grow and most this growth will be in gasoline powered vehicles due to convenience, economy and it’s track record or reliability.
More gasoline electric hybrids, will be the largest growth sector.


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Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272162 11/19/19 09:02 PM
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Electric cars are cheaper to build with less than half the parts. Prices need to come down before they are going to get much more popular. Look for the Oil Companies to come up with cheaper hydrogen and they'll put a strange hold on it. Somethings never change they need to lock them out of future power.


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Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: eljefino] #5272165 11/19/19 09:03 PM
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Rmay635703 Offline
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Originally Posted by eljefino
When they hit 20-50% market penetration the state's going to want their road tax.

Look at the honeymoon period of internet shopping, took them 15-20 years to figure out how to guarantee they're getting their cut


They already get more than their cut.

Here 1st year title and registration for an EV is $665
Standard economy car, small truck or van is $165

Annual gas tax on an eco box in this state is $43

$500/43 = 11.5 years of gas tax, plus you pay about 4 years worth on annual registration

People aren’t stupid and EVs sales have slowed in this state and many folks have gotten rid of their $3500 cheap used EV for a gasser due to taxes.

Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272236 11/19/19 11:11 PM
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Silk Offline
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The electric car won't be any cheaper....but the fossil fuel powered car will become more expensive - this will be the price difference.


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Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272264 11/20/19 01:06 AM
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Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272281 11/20/19 04:34 AM
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States are looking to mileage taxes versus gasoline fuel taxes as electric cars become more popular. How they will do that is another question.

Also, calling these road taxes can be misleading. Many states do not use these taxes for roads. WA state puts theirs into the general fund and it gets used for anything.

You will also see tolls and Pay to Play lanes become more and more prevalent. Do you want to put out $10 to drive in the HOV lane? That’s what WA us doing as well. That’s the high price. It fluctuates depending on time of day and traffic conditions. Access fees are another invention coming soon. Want to go downtown? That will cost you.


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Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272283 11/20/19 04:49 AM
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There is zero chance i am gonna pay 45k€ for the new honda ev for example. I think it will take long time for the ev cars to take over. Atleast in my country...

Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272313 11/20/19 05:54 AM
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EV battery prices are coming down markedly. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_battery#Battery_cost

"The MIT Technology Review estimated the cost of automotive battery packs to be between US$225 to US$500 per kilowatt-hour by 2020.

https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-electric-cars-battery-costs-versus-tesla-2019-9

VW claims to have battery cost under $100 per KWH of capacity.

Two problems remain. Battery lifespan is quoted at 10 years, and range. Lithium batteries don't degrade much per charge cycle, but when they do fail they do so rather quickly and completely. In other words, they are good right up until they aren't. The early Nissan Leaf is not a good example, as they have poor battery quality and don't hold up either over charge cycles or time. Early Tesla cars have already experienced a large number of warranty battery replacements.

Although covered by warranty, Musk claims the Model 3 battery replacement cost will be $5000-$7000 at around the 10 year mark. Although real world Model S owners are paying $20,000 - $25,000 for a replacement battery. The truth will probably be somewhere in the middle.

Range is another real problem. Claims of 300+ mile range are just not materializing. Highway trips cut that by at least 1/3 and charger locations limit choices of where to stop for a charge at about the 180 mile mark. Very cold weather cuts the range in half and increases charge consumption considerably, as the battery must be heated to accept the charge.

EV's will remain pricey and fun toys in the near future.

Nor are EV's necessarily more environmentally friendly. https://news.slashdot.org/story/19/04/27/1842245/electric-vehicles-in-germany-emit-more-co2-than-diesel-ones-study-shows:

Quote: "Driving an electric vehicle in Germany produces more CO2 emissions than driving a diesel vehicle, a new study claims. schwit1 quotes the Brussels Times:
When CO2 emissions linked to the production of batteries and the German energy mix are taken into consideration, electric vehicles emit 11% to 28% more than their diesel counterparts, according to the study, presented at the Ifo Institute in Munich.

Mining and processing the lithium, cobalt and manganese used for batteries consume a great deal of energy... The CO2 given off to produce the electricity that powers such vehicles also needs to be factored in, they say. When all these factors are considered, each Tesla emits 156 to 180 grams of CO2 per kilometre, which is more than a comparable diesel vehicle produced by the German company Mercedes, for example
"


People who count on their fingers should maintain a discreet silence.
Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272323 11/20/19 06:19 AM
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Apologies for going off topic above.

I don't see EV's as matching competitive cars anytime soon. When a Camry, Accord or Altima (even the hybrids) can be had for the low to mid $20's, the EV has a LONG way to go to match that.

Furthermore, the supposed "cost savings" and "energy savings" of an EV are simply a matter of location and local costs. Local rate is 12c/KWH, +fees. Making it 20c/KWH in total for the first 750KWH. The rate goes up from there.

Meaning the energy cost per mile of a Model 3 is on par with an Accord Hybrid.

NOTE: EV energy use is NOT what the dash display lists. EV energy use is how much the meter spins per charge. There is known and well understood 40% (+/- 1%) difference due to charger, battery charge, battery storage and battery output and motor/controller losses. That 300 watt hours per mile translates to 500 watt hours per mile FROM THE GRID.

Last edited by Cujet; 11/20/19 06:25 AM.

People who count on their fingers should maintain a discreet silence.
Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272324 11/20/19 06:21 AM
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Time will tell. When you see that new Tesla pickup pulling trailers for almost nothing people will want to go EV. That is, until they price gouge everyone
on electricity. I am afraid it's going to be a constant tug of war until one or the other take over. I think the EV will win in the end but it won't happen overnight.


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Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: 1978elcamino] #5272325 11/20/19 06:25 AM
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The demand for diesel/gasoline is inelastic so expect a floor if not an increase in the price as refining costs continue to increase along with an increase in road tax. The price increases will be offset somewhat with hybrid technology. Vehicles are going to remain expensive because automakers, other than Tesla, have to actually make money and not only recoup EV development costs but they have legacy costs (ex, Pensions/Healthcare for retirees) to contend with.

The cost of electricity will remain comparatively stable as long as utilities continue to invest in grid management. Unless charging infrastructure really improves EV's penetration will be limited by the amount of multi-family (Apartments, Condos, and some extent Town homes) within a market area. There are millions of households who need a car but have no way of charging one. It's why for example the only people who have EV's in Atlanta tend to live in the suburbs because they can charge the vehicle in their two-car garage.

Last edited by BMWTurboDzl; 11/20/19 06:31 AM.

“It took untold generations to get you where you are. A little gratitude might be in order. If you’re going to insist on bending the world to your way, you better have your reasons.”

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Re: future new car prices-gas vs electric [Re: Y_K] #5272356 11/20/19 07:58 AM
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Interesting. The kicker is that national governments can ramp up the printing press via sovereign debt sales to extend subsidies. Sure future generations are left to pay for it, but they'll be conditioned to believe that it was a worthy sacrifice in order to prevent catastrophic climate change.


“It took untold generations to get you where you are. A little gratitude might be in order. If you’re going to insist on bending the world to your way, you better have your reasons.”

435i
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