There is some decent info on connection between UOA data and other forms of wear measurement.
There are some SAE studies that have closely related info in their data; the inference is that UOA data can be correlated to other means of measuring wear. Most of these used UOA data and some other means such as electro-bombardment, or elemental weight analysis. I caution all to consider these topics where reading studies:
1) HALTs have not shown to be good predictors of normal operating conditions
2) You need to buy/read the studies; don't just peruse the synopsis
https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/780184/ wear relative to filtration
https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/881825/ wear relative to filtration
https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/2007-01-4133/ wear relative to TCB
https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/902238/ wear relative to filtration
This study, in particular, shows excellent correlation between PC counts and UOA element analysis. The inference being that particles in the oil stream are comprised of not only things like soot and other combustion byproducts, but also elements of metal wear. The "cleaner" the oil stream, the lower the UOA wear data. The correlation was very accurate in this study. In short, the wear data seen in UOAs (5um and smaller) is reasonably reflected in PC data (3um and higher), where % concentrations show good correlation.
but OTOH ... This shows that when it comes to filtration, you cannot discern filter efficiency to wear data in a UOA. Filter efficiency is different from wear, relative to UOA data. So this becomes a two-pronged comment.
From one POV, you could argue that UOAs are not a great way to measure wear.
But from the other POV, you could argue that filtration is not the only controlling entity of wear, and that until you isolate the individual wear contributors, this study only proves that filtration has negligible effect on wear. (OCI duration and TBC being the other key inputs that were not studied in this Fleetfilter effort).
https://www.cumminsfiltration.com/s...ct_lit/americas_brochures/SB_LT15105.pdf
For example, the infamous GM filter study from 1988 discussed the use of percent weight loss analysis as the main study effort. They also did PC analysis. They speak to the specific elements of Fe, Tn, Pb and Cu; these elements can ONLY be discerned with spectral analysis (you cannot tell a the type element of a particle in a PC count). So they did show that elemental analysis in UOAs shows correlation in % concentration to the other forms of wear analysis like the PC and weight loss methods. They also casually mention that you'll never see real differences in UOAs because the wear rates they induced in the HALT simply are never seen in the real world. They admit that UOAs cannot show filter differences simply because the delta wear is so flipping small that you cannot discern a difference. And so to the point I always make; if the wear is really low, the filter efficiency is moot.
This one is one of my favorites:
https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/952557/
It's the Donaldson "total filtration" study.
Here, it's clear that the best oil filter is a good air filter. There's no talk of UOA data; it's all mass loss derived. This study looks at wear from various sources; air, fuel, combustion, OCI duration, etc. They do not address the TBC as a controlling factor; I wish that were included.
No one should be foolish enough to think that UOA data is perfect; it's not. It's a compromise of efforts, costs, data and accuracy. But that can be said true about many other forms of wear discernment; it's not like elemental weight analysis or electro-bombardment are not without challenges and concerns as well. Even tear-down analysis has it's issues with gauge R&R; it's highly suspect to repeatability concerns. UOAs have been shown to have good (not perfect, but very reliable) accuracy in "normal" conditions. They show you a portion of wear; that at or below 5um, generally in ICP analysis. What wear exists above 5um is unknown. But
"normal" wear isn't really about huge chunks of flying asteroids in your oil, anyway; it's about the small stuff.
UOAs are by far and away the easiest, cheapest way to discern most wear. Many of the studies I linked did show reasonable correlation between UOA data and other forms of measurements.
Other forms of wear measurement have issues, as I already stated. Electo-bombardment is sensitive in some elements, but not all. Percent mass loss is only accurate if the component measured is 100% of one element (say a pure aluminum sleeve bushing), but if you have a multi-element component (babbit bearing), you have to visually interpret the % loss of each as the wear layers reveal themselves. Teardown analysis is super sensitive to the previous set-up efforts, as well as human inaccuracy in measurement repeatability. THERE IS NO PERFECT WAY TO MEASURE WEAR; ALL HAVE THEIR PROS AND CONS.
Anecdotally, I'd also point to many of Blackstone's articles where they have UOA data that points to engine issues, and then they save an engine from impending doom. This is admittedly not always accurate, but if you're the person that saved an engine from destruction because you caught a timing chain guide going out before you crash hard parts, you're a happy person.
https://www.blackstone-labs.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Mustang-report.pdf
https://www.blackstone-labs.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Eng-Feb-2018-1.pdf
https://www.blackstone-labs.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/ENG-Report-1.pdf
https://www.blackstone-labs.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/ENG-report-July-16.pdf
https://www.blackstone-labs.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/7-13-ENG.pdf
etc
I'm sure I've missed a few studies; these are just the ones I've bought or gleaned from various sources.