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The Tesla Effect #5230322 10/04/19 03:28 PM
Joined: Jan 2009
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macarose Offline OP
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Hey there. I am Steven Lang. Long time BITOG poster. Part-time data analyst, and hater of all summer lawns that needs mowing.

I just released a study on Tesla and their long-term effects on the luxury car market. Tesla's success has destroyed the resale values of millions of luxury vehicles sold by Mercedes-Benz, Audi, BMW, Lexus, Acura, Infiniti, and countless others.As a matter of perspective, the average three year old Audi A4, BMW 3-Series and Mercedes C-Class is now less expensive than a brand new base model Toyota Camry. Back in 2016 the difference between those models and the entry level Camry was between $4000 and $6000.

The difference. Two independent variables. The increasing demand of crossovers and SUVs in this space. The popularity of seven year loans, and the rise of the Tesla Model S and Model 3 as sales leaders in the luxury vehicle market.

Here's the hard data. A lot of which has not been publicly released until now. It took several months to collect it all and I have plenty that didn't quite make the story so if you're interested, just PM me and I'll be happy to share it.

Hope you guys enjoy it.

https://www.capitalone.com/cars/lea...PSget2v3H3CKB7BX2lx-XuLgi4-YT9QBFS8iF0SY

Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230326 10/04/19 03:30 PM
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PandaBear Offline
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Nice, thanks. I'm a big fan of your site.


"You keep asking questions PandaBear and you'll end up a vegetarian like my wife" - Camu Mahubah
Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230329 10/04/19 03:35 PM
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 12,836
4WD Offline
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Posts: 12,836
What about the cost of owning a used German car - several BMW fans at work will only lease them ...

Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230337 10/04/19 03:40 PM
Joined: May 2009
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Y_K Offline
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Mannheim Auctions have prices sold tables, and they had the same vehicles down at these levels for years before Tesla Effect. I may mean that the general market is finally saturated by Germans and pro pricing is finally trickling down.
I am not arguing that Tesla Effect is a fictitious one, but there are quite a few more market forces at work, e.g. demographics, brand and update fatigue, etc. It's like iPhone Effect of sorts.

If you were to look at Mannheim prices for their biggest sites on East and West Coast, you'd scratch your head and think why Germans are trashed to unbelievable low levels and even dealers still pay premium for Landcruisers sight unseen. Supply vs Demand. Telsa can be a good catalyst, but not the disruptor.


“This disease making us more cruel to one another than if we are doggs.” -- Samuel Pepys 1666
Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230349 10/04/19 03:53 PM
Joined: Oct 2012
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Danno Offline
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Sedans are tanking in sales ... period, and Tesla doubled down on that with the Model 3.
Used sedan prices dropping faster than historical is due to customer demand tanking - and Tesla competition.
SUV/CUV/Truck sales are over 80% of the Canadian new car market right now.


2019 Jeep Grand Cherokee Summit 5.7L Hemi
2019 RAV4 Limited Hybrid
2016 Sorento SX V6 AWD
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Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230356 10/04/19 04:01 PM
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NO2 Offline
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Cars in general have lower resale prices. Less reliable, very expensive to maintain ($100 oil changes and $1200 sets of tires) and repair cars with lots of gadgets to break are going to be cheaper yet. Besides, regular cars these days are nearly as nice as the Germans, just a slight downgrade in power, seating and noise levels. A Subaru Legacy rides as nicely as the German cars and has better AWD, A Honda or Toyota will last 50% longer. Most of the mass market brands have far more dealers too.

I'd pick up a Lincoln Continental with the 2.7 over the German vehicles anyday.

Most luxury car buyers want the latest and greatest stuff, so (typically subsidized) leasing is the way to go.

Last edited by NO2; 10/04/19 04:02 PM.
Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230360 10/04/19 04:03 PM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 6,289
JohnnyJohnson Online Content
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Joined: Oct 2009
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Wait and see how great they are when you need one repaired from a serious accident!

Last edited by JohnnyJohnson; 10/04/19 04:04 PM.

2004 Corolla 140116
Out: Havoline Pro DS 10w-30 Purolator PureOne 10-29-19 136457
In: Pennzoil Platinum HM 5W-20 ST 4386
2006 Duramax 77077
Out: T6 5W-40 XG9100 73909
In: Rotella Dino PH9100 11-3-19
Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230382 10/04/19 04:35 PM
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dareo Offline
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I was shocked to see a nice 13 760li for 45k, v12 loaded car that was north of 160k new. Bmw i8 also going for peanuts.


2019 VW Golf Alltrack, 2018 Regal TourX, 2016 GMC 1500 SLT 6.2, 2007 GMC Savana 6.6 Duramax
Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: JohnnyJohnson] #5230390 10/04/19 04:48 PM
Joined: May 2009
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Y_K Offline
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Joined: May 2009
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Originally Posted by JohnnyJohnson
Wait and see how great they are when you need one repaired from a serious accident!


I've seen the bill for one after a minor accident: it's an event of a most unwelcome kind!


“This disease making us more cruel to one another than if we are doggs.” -- Samuel Pepys 1666
Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230396 10/04/19 04:52 PM
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,172
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nascarnation Offline
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With the crappy paint jobs on these Model 3 Teslas (rust after the first winter season just like a 72 Vega) I can only imagine what price those will be selling for after three years.

Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230402 10/04/19 05:02 PM
Joined: Oct 2004
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bullwinkle Offline
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Joined: Oct 2004
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Apparently all these Tesla buyers haven't done their homework on how hard it is to get one repaired!
https://www.sfgate.com/cars/article/tesla-repair-wait-time-complaints-electric-car-13796037.php


06 Ram 3500 CTD 4X4(FG Venturi), 89 F-450 7.3, 98 XJ 4.0(XG8A), 05 xB(XG3600), 18 Transit 3.7 (MC), 03 Merc Grand Marquis 4.6 2V(XG2), 11 Express 3500 6.0 (Fram PH10060 for now)
Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230405 10/04/19 05:11 PM
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ecotourist Offline
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I paid about the same for my then 3 year old used BMW 5 series as for my new Honda Accord a few years later.

And I bought the 5 series because it was a bargain compared to a used 3 series. So not such a big change in Canada anyway.

Both great cars, and neither worth much on the used car market.


2000 BMW 528i 5MT M Sport
2007 Honda Accord EX-L 4Door V6 6MT
Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230412 10/04/19 05:26 PM
Joined: Mar 2008
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Ws6 Offline
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Did I somehow miss the era when German cars of non-collector value actually HAD resale value? As an 80's kid, I might just be unaware?

Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230413 10/04/19 05:33 PM
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Farnsworth Offline
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Not many civics and corollas trade ins on a new Tesla so that % is probably off. Tesla isn’t the only ev maker, mb and others are much more capable in production just like the Bolt was out way before the 3 and GM didn’t break a sweat doing it. So the story is still unfolding.

Re: The Tesla Effect [Re: macarose] #5230414 10/04/19 05:34 PM
Joined: Apr 2012
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Wolf359 Offline
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I haven't really noticed the E-class coming down much in price and I have two of them. The C class doesn't have as many options available as the E class. I also DIY or take the car to an indy mechanic so the prices haven't been too crazy for repairs.

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