Oil/Gas prices gonna go up?
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Originally Posted by kschachn
Originally Posted by hallstevenson
See above, like my post where I said the same thing about Canadian oil ? On paper, that's an easy excuse for everyone to raise prices everywhere and that's what they'll do. In many cases, I'd suspect that a refinery shutdown, if it lasts short enough time, could be "weathered" by suppliers without panicking and raising prices. Then again, they don't need any reason. Around here, we routinely see jumps in pricing in a single jump of $0.50 and $0.60/gallon.
Yeah well welcome to products that are commodities. It happens to all of them. Prices aren't always dictated by supply and demand, world events and fears are highly relevant.
Have to disagree.
In the very short run, prices may spike due to irrational fears as well as product withheld in anticipation of higher prices to come.
These price increases quickly collapse since markets must clear and one can always defer a fill-up by a day or two.
One can also reduce discretionary driving until prices decline.
The whole production/refining/distribution system operates on throughput. If oil is produced, it'll get purchased at whatever price clears the market. It will get refined with the refiner's margin based upon what it takes to clear their output and those refined products will be sold at whatever price it takes to clear the market for finished product.
This is simple microeconomics and no conspiracy or cartel can defeat it. If you want more of something from the supply side, just raise the market price while if you want to see a decline on the demand side just do the same.
Originally Posted by hallstevenson
See above, like my post where I said the same thing about Canadian oil ? On paper, that's an easy excuse for everyone to raise prices everywhere and that's what they'll do. In many cases, I'd suspect that a refinery shutdown, if it lasts short enough time, could be "weathered" by suppliers without panicking and raising prices. Then again, they don't need any reason. Around here, we routinely see jumps in pricing in a single jump of $0.50 and $0.60/gallon.
Yeah well welcome to products that are commodities. It happens to all of them. Prices aren't always dictated by supply and demand, world events and fears are highly relevant.
Have to disagree.
In the very short run, prices may spike due to irrational fears as well as product withheld in anticipation of higher prices to come.
These price increases quickly collapse since markets must clear and one can always defer a fill-up by a day or two.
One can also reduce discretionary driving until prices decline.
The whole production/refining/distribution system operates on throughput. If oil is produced, it'll get purchased at whatever price clears the market. It will get refined with the refiner's margin based upon what it takes to clear their output and those refined products will be sold at whatever price it takes to clear the market for finished product.
This is simple microeconomics and no conspiracy or cartel can defeat it. If you want more of something from the supply side, just raise the market price while if you want to see a decline on the demand side just do the same.
Originally Posted by bullwinkle
I'd love to know why all the threads on this keep disappearing...
Because eventually politics are weaved into the discussion. I'm surprised this thread is still going, TBH.
I'd love to know why all the threads on this keep disappearing...
Because eventually politics are weaved into the discussion. I'm surprised this thread is still going, TBH.
U.S. crude up 11%, Brent crude up 12%
Everybody freak out, now!
Everybody freak out, now!
Originally Posted by Linctex
Originally Posted by ARCOgraphite
Since USA are "almost" energy independent why should our prices be based on a global commodity model?
Just for profit ?
We export a lot of light, sweet crude.
Ironically....... many of the refineries in the USA are NOT set up to refine "light, sweet".
So, we export our golden honey overseas and import the black sticky goop from Saudi instead.
I know little of the market and none of the refining needs, but that is what I have heard from those that do. The light fracking oil we're supposedly swimming in is largely not refined here, but exported. We're still in need of plenty of the "good stuff".
Originally Posted by ARCOgraphite
Since USA are "almost" energy independent why should our prices be based on a global commodity model?
Just for profit ?
We export a lot of light, sweet crude.
Ironically....... many of the refineries in the USA are NOT set up to refine "light, sweet".
So, we export our golden honey overseas and import the black sticky goop from Saudi instead.
I know little of the market and none of the refining needs, but that is what I have heard from those that do. The light fracking oil we're supposedly swimming in is largely not refined here, but exported. We're still in need of plenty of the "good stuff".
It's official. WTI is up 9 % to almost $60. We'll know better in the morning.
Originally Posted by Snagglefoot
It's official. WTI is up 9 % to almost $60. We'll know better in the morning.
CBS MarketWatch has it above $60 a barrel right now at this moment. Most analysts are hoping the damage to Aramco isn't that bad... but it's a big plant, the largest in the world, and if some of the specialized equipment is damaged and offline for more than a few days they're saying a bump of $10 or more could be possible putting it into the $70 realm could cause the U.S. to release some reserves to stabilize things (prices) at least here domestically. There's huge incentive for the Fed's to keep oil prices from rising too much.
And the fallout from the drone attacks has the market worried too...to your point kschachn, you are correct.
Here's a link to the live ticket...
MarketWatch - WTI Crude
MarketWatch - Brent
It's official. WTI is up 9 % to almost $60. We'll know better in the morning.
CBS MarketWatch has it above $60 a barrel right now at this moment. Most analysts are hoping the damage to Aramco isn't that bad... but it's a big plant, the largest in the world, and if some of the specialized equipment is damaged and offline for more than a few days they're saying a bump of $10 or more could be possible putting it into the $70 realm could cause the U.S. to release some reserves to stabilize things (prices) at least here domestically. There's huge incentive for the Fed's to keep oil prices from rising too much.
And the fallout from the drone attacks has the market worried too...to your point kschachn, you are correct.
Here's a link to the live ticket...
MarketWatch - WTI Crude
MarketWatch - Brent
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10-15%, 20-25% if damage is serious. However, not big issue.
Problem is how Saudi Arabia reacts to this, how Iran responds to it. How we react to this, and how Iran reacts to this (I mean this is reaction to sanctions). So, I would not bet this is one time thing and some people who bought trucks might regret it soon.
Problem is how Saudi Arabia reacts to this, how Iran responds to it. How we react to this, and how Iran reacts to this (I mean this is reaction to sanctions). So, I would not bet this is one time thing and some people who bought trucks might regret it soon.
I checked the Canadian Crude Index and it has also jumped up 10%, meaning those 3 million bbls/day imported by the USA will also go up in price. Oil is a world wide commodity.
U.S. gasoline futures are also up 10% to $1.71 this morning.
No, I don't think prices at the pump will increase.
Stations here are already up $.01-.10 over yesterday ahead of any cost increase. Expect prices to settle at about $.25/gal over last week unless more bad news comes out, which I expect it will.
Originally Posted by mehullica
No, I don't think prices at the pump will increase.
Why would they not?
No, I don't think prices at the pump will increase.
Why would they not?
Originally Posted by MrMoody
Stations here are already up $.01-.10 over yesterday ahead of any cost increase. Expect prices to settle at about $.25/gal over last week unless more bad news comes out, which I expect it will.
I think that we have to take into consideration elections in 2020. I believe that if there is hope that things are not going out of hand is that any drastic movement at the pump or damage to the economy, seriously limits reelection chances. Therefore, I think that escalation, at least from our side will be measured.
Stations here are already up $.01-.10 over yesterday ahead of any cost increase. Expect prices to settle at about $.25/gal over last week unless more bad news comes out, which I expect it will.
I think that we have to take into consideration elections in 2020. I believe that if there is hope that things are not going out of hand is that any drastic movement at the pump or damage to the economy, seriously limits reelection chances. Therefore, I think that escalation, at least from our side will be measured.
Originally Posted by PimTac
Energy is a volatile market. The noise you hear are the futures traders and bobble head pundits on television crying wolf. In a week or two it will have likely blown over and another news story will be the focus.
Week or two? By Friday we will recycle 3-4 top stories unless there is some retaliatory attack on Iran.
Energy is a volatile market. The noise you hear are the futures traders and bobble head pundits on television crying wolf. In a week or two it will have likely blown over and another news story will be the focus.
Week or two? By Friday we will recycle 3-4 top stories unless there is some retaliatory attack on Iran.
Originally Posted by PimTac
The noise you hear are the futures traders and bobble head pundits on television crying wolf.
The thing is, since the talking heads already told everyone that gas price hikes may be coming, the oil companies are now free to go ahead and institute the hikes. People were told to expect them, so they won't complain much when it actually happens.
The noise you hear are the futures traders and bobble head pundits on television crying wolf.
The thing is, since the talking heads already told everyone that gas price hikes may be coming, the oil companies are now free to go ahead and institute the hikes. People were told to expect them, so they won't complain much when it actually happens.
Originally Posted by Quattro Pete
Originally Posted by PimTac
The noise you hear are the futures traders and bobble head pundits on television crying wolf.
The thing is, since the talking heads already told everyone that gas price hikes may be coming, the oil companies are now free to go ahead and institute the hikes. People were told to expect them, so they won't complain much when it actually happens.
True and the sheep will believe anything the fake news media throws at them.
The biggest complainers will be the ones driving gasoline gulping vehicles.
Originally Posted by PimTac
The noise you hear are the futures traders and bobble head pundits on television crying wolf.
The thing is, since the talking heads already told everyone that gas price hikes may be coming, the oil companies are now free to go ahead and institute the hikes. People were told to expect them, so they won't complain much when it actually happens.
True and the sheep will believe anything the fake news media throws at them.
The biggest complainers will be the ones driving gasoline gulping vehicles.
Originally Posted by PimTac
True and the sheep will believe anything the fake news media throws at them.
Agree with you there.
Originally Posted by PimTac
The biggest complainers will be the ones driving gasoline gulping vehicles.
I think it's the ones who live far out from work so they can have a nicer house and more space. They should all move into apartments where they can walk to work or use mass transportation and stop wasting resources. Only commercial traffic should be on the roads.
I use about $80/mo in my gas hogs at current prices. The wife burns about $125/mo in her fuel efficient car. Who's going to complain more?
True and the sheep will believe anything the fake news media throws at them.
Agree with you there.
Originally Posted by PimTac
The biggest complainers will be the ones driving gasoline gulping vehicles.
I think it's the ones who live far out from work so they can have a nicer house and more space. They should all move into apartments where they can walk to work or use mass transportation and stop wasting resources. Only commercial traffic should be on the roads.
I use about $80/mo in my gas hogs at current prices. The wife burns about $125/mo in her fuel efficient car. Who's going to complain more?
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