Hurricane Dorian, FL residents?

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I know... I just did that
lol.gif



Seriously... I am very grateful to have learned how to interpret those forecast models...

In winter time it is actually harder than this hurricane circumstance... Way harder in fact at times...

Case in point... Last December we had a potential snowstorm in my area... However right where I am located it was a total coin flip what precipitation was going to happen... Either a fair amount of snow or a little snow turning into rain... When I got up that Sunday afternoon... 3 inches of snow and snowing hard... I laughed. We got 6 inches... Only 15 miles southeast of me... 0 snow. I knew that was a extremely difficult forecast because the Weather Prediction Center had the chance of 1 inch or more of snow in my area at 40-50 percent... While at the same exact time they also had my area in a 10-20 percent chance of 4 inches or more of snow... I have never ever seen those perameters cross over in that way before... Never. I knew between that and the GFS and NAM models it was a true coin flip as to what would happen in my area, Gloucester county, Surry county, Isle of Wight, Mathews county and northwest York county and northwest Newport News... And I was proven right about that part... Now that was a tough forecast.
 
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Originally Posted by wrcsixeight
...


No matter how often it is repeated, to not concentrate on where the exact center of the cone of doom lies, it seems people outside this center line seem to feel they are safe as long as the projected center of that cone is not atop their location if they can even find their location on a map.

I have a sister in Orlando, and informed her that the center of the cone of uncertainty was now directly over the coastline and had been trending east the last few official updates, and she though she was out of the woods, and I had to wreck her Friday night with logic and facts and say even with that track, she could see 80mph or higher gusts.

Even if the center line proved to be correct the eye could be 50 miles wide and 15 miles thick, and outerbands outside the eyewall often spawn tornadoes well away from storm center. Florida is flat and hot and moist, the land itself is not going to induce teh same relatively rapid weakening as some other landfall locations could, and if half the storm remains over the gulf stream as it travels north at swift walking speed. along the coastline.......

...


Precisely my concern with widely reported shift...


[Linked Image from nrlmry.navy.mil]
 
No Hurricane warnings exist in the USA, No Hurricane watches currently exist in the USA.
Yes it bears watching but the news sensationalism keeps the advertising revenue coming in.
One is much better off going to the NHC for information.

You currently have a 1000 mile spread (or close to it) of where the 35 miles from the center of hurricane force winds may go (think about that, 35 miles)) and if it does, the winds can be as low as 75MPH. there is a 40% chance Southern Florida may see 75 MPH winds.

From NHC "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center"

[Linked Image]
 
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^^^^ 11 AM, I see we have our first Hurricane watch for the USA.
If I lived in that area, I would certainly start to prepare. At the same time, I would also remember, Hurricane Force winds only extend 30 miles out from the eye, but definitely serious enough to take the watch serious as those wind speeds are REALLY high.

I have this feeling the SC/NC coast might be more threatened albeit a weaker storm, too many unknowns and still to early but we are now getting to a more realistic timeline.
This thread started a full THREE days ago and now we will finally start knowing how the US coast will be affected.
 
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Not to give ya a hard time Robert... But rainfall in this system is minor in comparison to Florence last year.. In regards to the mainland United States....

This system is stalling has forecast.... In satellite loops you can see westerly winds aloft in Alabama and northwest Florida.... This is the possible saving grace for the east coast of Florida...
Remember that the western side of this system may well hit the coast... But that is the weaker side of a hurricane. The northeast quadrant is the strongest semi circle of the storm.



The turn northward is going to happen... And recurve pattern/track...

All interests along Charleston SC and Wilmington NC to the Outer Banks need to be on guard and stay abreast of latest forecast.

Though the upper level Westerlies will degrade this system once it is above the latitude of the Florida Georgia border...

Only 3 hurricanes have ever maintained cat 4 status above that line in recorded East coast hurricane history... Long Island Express hurricane in 1938, Hurricane Hazel 54' and Hurricane Hugo in 89'....

This one will not likely do it either.... Wind shear 20 knots plus will take it toll on inner storm structure.
Though a 110 mph storm is still nothing to take lightly...

And I agree with alarmguys post about just going to the NHC site...
 
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Originally Posted by bbhero
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And I agree with alarmguys post about just going to the NHC site...


Historically I find the Navy Range more accurate... if it differs from NHC,

People just need to pay attention... I'm not advocating panic, just vigilance...
 
My take on this as I quickly glossed over the latest NHC (and I really just glossed over it) is worse case after the next 24 hours if the track holds true the danger will be towards SC/NC or if it does brush the Florida Coast winds will be down to a CAT 1 and MAX Cat 2 on land... which is very manageable. Ocean Flooding will be an issue, part of coastal living.

We shall see.
 
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Originally Posted by RDY4WAR
Serious question...

What do people on house arrest do during a mandatory evacuation?


Mandatory evacuation is political speak. If you choose to stay in your home so be it but nobody will be able to help you if you get into trouble such as a life-threatening emergency.

Oops I Now understand your question and I have no idea of the answer. But obviously there must be some system in place for that situation.
 
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Well it looks like Charleston SC and Wilmington NC and the Outer Banks are once again where the main action is going to be... Not surprising.

Cape Fear and Wilmington NC have been hit numerous times in the past 25 years... Hurricne Bertha in 96, Fran in 96, Bonnie in 1999 and of course Hurricane Floyd in 99, Hurricane Florence just last year and now this one....

Again lesson from this storm should be.... Be very aware of what is out there day 4-6 days out... But don't go around be drama queens about it.... Like the Weather Channel. . Also when a track starts to change in shape day 3-4 days out.... That is something to take note of.

This type of forecast is not all too different than winter storm forecasting... I don't get too amped up until 3 days from an possible winter storm event. Models can and do shift about quite a bit from days 10 through day 4... Typically. There have been exceptions of course... A winter storm in late January 2010 in my area the GFS and NAM were both shockingly consistent run to run from day 8 all the way until the event. And it was a good snowstorm in my area... And in 2003 Hurricane Isabel was extremely consistent model runs from 7 days out until landfall. Enough so I actually plotted out the course from 6 days out using the NHCs latitude and longitude plot points has reference... I wrote on a 2002 Rand Mc Nally road atlas the track of that hurricane. From Ocracoke Island due northwestward... And it happened exactly that way.. And I did that 6 full days before landfall. The model runs if the GFS and NAM were amazingly consistent run to run from 8 days out until landfall. And... The other models like the Euro, HRWF and other tropical forecast models were all within 75 miles of each other 8 days out.... That was something to see. The upper level atmospheric setup was perfect for that to be the case though. A huge area of high pressure building off the coast of Nova Scotia blocked the storm from any other track... Hurricne Isabel was steered between that large high pressure to it's northeast and a approaching upper level trough to the west... Thus setting up a forced track/corridor for the storm to go through.. Similar in some fashion as to the Long Island Express hurricane in 1938... Except Hurricane Isabel had a northwest track vs a due north track for the Long Island Express hurricane. Analog hurricane history is very helpful to know... And use to make forecast.
 
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Originally Posted by bbhero
Well it looks like Charleston SC and Wilmington NC and the Outer Banks are once again where the main action is going to be... Not surprising.

Cape Fear and Wilmington NC have been hit numerous times in the past 25 years... Hurricne Bertha in 96, Fran in 96, Bonnie in 1999 and of course Hurricane Floyd in 99, Hurricane Florence just last year and now this one....

Again lesson from this storm should be.... Be very aware of what is out there day 4-6 days out... But don't go around be drama queens about it.... Like the Weather Channel. . Also when a track starts to change in shape day 3-4 days out.... That is something to take note of.

This type of forecast is not all too different than winter storm forecasting... I don't get too amped up until 3 days from an possible winter storm event. ...


AMEN ! ^^^^^

People in forums may learn and take advice but the public will never be able to discern fake news and the "media" hype, nor care too.
The "media"will never be able to turn down a dollar in advertising and ratings by reporting the boring to the public, facts.

It blows my mind and honestly, find it kind of scary in the new "information" age common sense out the window, fantasy and fun instead.
 
Florida fortunately got lucky. Can you imagine the level of devastation and chaos if that hurricane kept it's catagory 5 or 4 energy parked itself on top of Florida like it did on the Bahamas? The Bahamas look like it was hit by atomic bombs!

Everyone still in the path, stay safe.
 
Originally Posted by ZeeOSix
Florida fortunately got lucky. Can you imagine the level of devastation and chaos if that hurricane kept it's catagory 5 or 4 energy parked itself on top of Florida like it did on the Bahamas? The Bahamas look like it was hit by atomic bombs!

Everyone still in the path, stay safe.


Yep. Florida dodged a bullet this time.
 
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