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Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: 1978elcamino] #5200768 08/30/19 02:48 PM
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Benzadmiral Offline
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At the 2:00 advisory the National Hurricane Center showed a track with a sharp NNW turn so that the path appears to go near Orlando: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/175641.shtml?cone#contents (Click the "track on" button to see that path.)

I know a retired couple who are visiting, and he's doing some consultant work, in the Keys. He's putting her on a bus to Gainesville, GA, and plans to ride it out. I sent her the link above and suggested they read the advisories too before he decides to stay. They're from Ohio and have never been through a storm like this before.


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Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: bbhero] #5200976 08/30/19 07:04 PM
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bbhero Offline
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One note of interest to me is the trend the past 48 hours... Track has been slowly trending towards a recurve track... Whereas before it was a surpressed track going west across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico..


A slow trend in forecast models is significant. A sudden large scale change in a single model run is not to be taken too seriously. . And this has been a slow trend the past 48 hours... Obviously Florida is first in the firing line of this storm...

However If I was in Charleston SC or Wilmington NC to the NC outer banks I would be staying abreast of the latest information.

One other factor of note here... Forecast model intensity is very, very difficult...

Typically hurricanes picked up by a western approaching upper level trough experience wind shear which weakens the hurricanes quite a bit... The Westerlies are a saving grace for people in my area and coastal NC... Example... Hurricane Isabel in 2003 was originally forecasted to be a cat 4 at landfall with sustained winds of 140 mph... Well the upper level trough from the West introduced enough westerly wind shear to drop the storm to 105 mph at landfall... Even though that happened and was a great thing... A will of gust of 109 mph hit Gywnn's Island in Mathews county to the east of me... And Yorktown coast guard station has a gust to 97 mph... Imagine adding 35 mph to those winds... A whole different ball game that's for sure...

Only the Long Island Express hurricane of 1938, Hurricane Hazel in 1954 and Hurricane Hugo in 1989 made landfall north of the Florida/Georgia border that did experience a lot of weakening from the Westerlies upper level winds shear... However many, many, many other hurricanes did weaken significantly from that weather phenomen. In this circumstance this may well be the case yet again... But there's no way to know for sure this far out in time.

Last edited by bbhero; 08/30/19 07:05 PM.

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Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: 1978elcamino] #5201030 08/30/19 08:49 PM
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kstanf150 Offline
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Watching now at 10:45pm eastern
Already a cat 4

Eastern Florida residents leave leave leave
It’s not worth your lives to stay
Structure can be rebuilt
Lives can’t !!!!

Hope all here in that area are safe !👍👍

Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: 1978elcamino] #5201089 08/30/19 10:13 PM
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It might be a good thing for the US, perhaps not the Bahamas though, that this thing is rapidly intensifying now, and perhaps near its peak, as few storms can maintain their peak intensity for long, even in the western Pacific where hot water extends to deeper in the ocean.

The physical size of this storm is still small, but growing.


No matter how often it is repeated, to not concentrate on where the exact center of the cone of doom lies, it seems people outside this center line seem to feel they are safe as long as the projected center of that cone is not atop their location if they can even find their location on a map.

I have a sister in Orlando, and informed her that the center of the cone of uncertainty was now directly over the coastline and had been trending east the last few official updates, and she though she was out of the woods, and I had to wreck her Friday night with logic and facts and say even with that track, she could see 80mph or higher gusts.

Even if the center line proved to be correct the eye could be 50 miles wide and 15 miles thick, and outerbands outside the eyewall often spawn tornadoes well away from storm center. Florida is flat and hot and moist, the land itself is not going to induce teh same relatively rapid weakening as some other landfall locations could, and if half the storm remains over the gulf stream as it travels north at swift walking speed. along the coastline.......

The EWMCF and GFS models trending more eastward, is no guarantee they will continue to do so, but ultimately the center of the eye could decide to not make landfall, even though the eyewall could.

We and "they" wont know the size of the storm, or the diameter of its eye, nor the thickness of the eyewall when it approaches the portion of the coast it ultimately decides to approach.

Dorian is likely to break some intensity records in the next 12 to 24 hours, and we can hope that it cannot maintain that strength and sucks drier more stable air into its center, and churns up cooler water from below, to induce weakening.



Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: bbhero] #5201183 08/31/19 04:23 AM
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bbhero Offline
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The models continue to be trending towards a receive track...

There's good reason for this too... Upper level trough approaching is now being introduced as a directing force with this system. Also lowering of intensity as hurricane moves northward is indicative of Westerlies shearing the system causing disruption of storms near the center of the hurricane. Which makes perfect sense... That pattern I first saw with Hurricane Gloria in 1985 where it went from 150 mph down to 110 mph... Hurricane Floyd in 1999 went from 150 down to 110 in similar fashion before making landfall at Cape Fear near Wilmington NC...

Again... If I were in Charleston SC and northeast to Cape Fear to Cape Hatteras... I would be very closely monitoring forecast updates. . .

This ain't my first rodeo....

I know hurricane climatology really, really well... And having learned how to interpret computer models for a long time now I have a idea what's going on and why.. .

In 2003 with Hurricane Isabel I told everyone I was in contact with 5 days before that storm hit we were in for a major event... Similar to Hurricane Hazel in 1954... And that proved extremely accurate. Plus knowing my region had made up a large scale rainfall deficit of 18-20 inches in the previous 10 months leading up to Hurricane Isabel's landfall I knew a whole, whole bunch of trees were going to fall down... And they certainly did... Many were without power 2-4 weeks in my area, the Richmond area and even northern Virginia... One home in Yorktown had 6 large pine trees fall through it during Isabel... That neighborhood was decimated in Isabel... The road heading back into that nice neighborhood was so covered by trees that they basically cut a tunnel through the downed trees to get out and in that area. It was incredible. I was not totally surprised.

Funny yet true deal... Right before superstotm Sandy I was getting a banana and two Chobani yogurts and I told the guy checking me out that I was not remotely concerned... Everyone else was buying all kinds of stuff and full carts... I laughed.. I told him that storm making landfall to the north of my area was all I needed not to be concerned. I did tell him if he ever saw me shopping like everyone else with loaded carts... Then it is on like Donkey Kong. And it's darn serious LOL


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Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: 1978elcamino] #5201620 08/31/19 05:43 PM
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Seems 2 of 3 hurricane hunter aircraft are down with broken windshields.

The one remaining recently found slightly higher pressures north of the storm than expected and that high pressure is responsible for the westward movement.
Could see the next official update at 11AST with the path moved back west a smidge.



Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: wrcsixeight] #5201800 09/01/19 01:10 AM
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bbhero Offline
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The models continue to show a definitive recurve track with this system. . At 11 pm advisory the track forecast has not moved hardly. I would still be very concerned and staying keenly aware of the forecast anywhere from Charleston SC northeast to Wilmington NC and northeast to Moorhead City and Cape Hatteras...

This whole exercise should remind everyone at the Weather Channel to not be such drama queens days 4-5-6 days out in a forecast time frame... UNLESS there is exceptional agreement among many forecast models that far out in time.... Like Hurricane Isabel... Which had all the models clustered within a 75 mile landfall location 5 days out before landfall. In that circumstance those models stayed remarkably consistent run to run all the way to landfall.


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Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: bbhero] #5201814 09/01/19 03:14 AM
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Max Mayfield Jr !!!

Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: 4WD] #5201821 09/01/19 04:17 AM
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bbhero Offline
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Who in the world is that 4wd ??

LOL


By the way....

Last year.... With Hurricane Florence.... I called that 7 days ahead of time... Now that was not dumb luck. I have a doggone good idea what I am looking at in regards to forecast models.... Like one of my favorite basketball players Byron Scott said, " it ain't talking [censored] if you can do it".

LOL

Last edited by bbhero; 09/01/19 04:41 AM.

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Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: bbhero] #5201823 09/01/19 04:29 AM
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Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: 4WD] #5201824 09/01/19 04:39 AM
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bbhero Offline
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I know... I just did that LOL


Seriously... I am very grateful to have learned how to interpret those forecast models...

In winter time it is actually harder than this hurricane circumstance... Way harder in fact at times...

Case in point... Last December we had a potential snowstorm in my area... However right where I am located it was a total coin flip what precipitation was going to happen... Either a fair amount of snow or a little snow turning into rain... When I got up that Sunday afternoon... 3 inches of snow and snowing hard... I laughed. We got 6 inches... Only 15 miles southeast of me... 0 snow. I knew that was a extremely difficult forecast because the Weather Prediction Center had the chance of 1 inch or more of snow in my area at 40-50 percent... While at the same exact time they also had my area in a 10-20 percent chance of 4 inches or more of snow... I have never ever seen those perameters cross over in that way before... Never. I knew between that and the GFS and NAM models it was a true coin flip as to what would happen in my area, Gloucester county, Surry county, Isle of Wight, Mathews county and northwest York county and northwest Newport News... And I was proven right about that part... Now that was a tough forecast.

Last edited by bbhero; 09/01/19 04:40 AM.

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Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: wrcsixeight] #5201875 09/01/19 07:16 AM
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Originally Posted by wrcsixeight
...


No matter how often it is repeated, to not concentrate on where the exact center of the cone of doom lies, it seems people outside this center line seem to feel they are safe as long as the projected center of that cone is not atop their location if they can even find their location on a map.

I have a sister in Orlando, and informed her that the center of the cone of uncertainty was now directly over the coastline and had been trending east the last few official updates, and she though she was out of the woods, and I had to wreck her Friday night with logic and facts and say even with that track, she could see 80mph or higher gusts.

Even if the center line proved to be correct the eye could be 50 miles wide and 15 miles thick, and outerbands outside the eyewall often spawn tornadoes well away from storm center. Florida is flat and hot and moist, the land itself is not going to induce teh same relatively rapid weakening as some other landfall locations could, and if half the storm remains over the gulf stream as it travels north at swift walking speed. along the coastline.......

...


Precisely my concern with widely reported shift...


[Linked Image from nrlmry.navy.mil]


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Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: 1978elcamino] #5201898 09/01/19 07:50 AM
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bbhero needs to be on the Weather Channel with his good storm predictions.

Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: 1978elcamino] #5201904 09/01/19 07:53 AM
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No Hurricane warnings exist in the USA, No Hurricane watches currently exist in the USA.
Yes it bears watching but the news sensationalism keeps the advertising revenue coming in.
One is much better off going to the NHC for information.

You currently have a 1000 mile spread (or close to it) of where the 35 miles from the center of hurricane force winds may go (think about that, 35 miles)) and if it does, the winds can be as low as 75MPH. there is a 40% chance Southern Florida may see 75 MPH winds.

From NHC "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center"

[Linked Image]

Last edited by alarmguy; 09/01/19 08:13 AM.

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Re: Hurricane Dorian, FL residents? [Re: alarmguy] #5201950 09/01/19 09:04 AM
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[Linked Image from nhc.noaa.gov]

[Linked Image from nhc.noaa.gov]

[Linked Image from nhc.noaa.gov]

That rainfall potential isn’t good at all...

Last edited by DuckRyder; 09/01/19 09:08 AM.

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