BMW CEO steps away after market loss

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By that definition, anyone who stops being profitable ceases being a player regardless of their actual impact on the market.

UD
 
Well … would hope they advance batteries enough for some 4 wheeling one day …
They would have amazing low end torque … but have a feeling deep sand or mud would draw on today's batteries … Should be able to get some smooth ground clearance under one since you can position electric motors wherever it works
Maybe that's my Tesla-Tracker
 
Originally Posted by UncleDave
Originally Posted by BMWTurboDzl


You're not a player in the market unless you can make money. Other than bragging rights none of the accolades, technology, mean anything without profit. The only reason I can think of as to why investors have held on so long is that they believe EV's are essentially going to mandated by Govt policymakers as more regulations legislate the ICE passenger vehicle out of existence.



Seems like you are selectively applying timelines to your position of profitability equaling being a player.

The US incumbents failed so badly one Bk'd and the other woudlnt be here without massive unique taxpayer largess, but somehow that doesnt count?

Profit can exist in many places - If you bought in at IPO Telsa has created all kinds of shareholder profit while only ever being a profitable once so far.



The why they filed BK is more important than the fact that they actually filed. Clearly you don't know the why, because if you did then you would understand that you're using a false equivalency by even mentioning them.
 
Tesla is "not a player" because of a simple thing called market share. Tesla has precious little of it. If they quadruple their market share, they'll still have precious little of it.

Originally Posted by UncleDave
Originally Posted by DoubleWasp


But it hasn't. Apologize for the backhanded remark. I shouldn't post so late.

You and I both know the market cycle of an enduring product. It has "earned it's place" once everyone who wants one has bought one, the fanfare has died down, and the market continues to consume.

It is rare for a product of any type to make it past the first stage. 12 years in, and Tesla has not only failed to reach that point, but doesn't make money either.

The whole "OMGgrowthanddevelopment" thing is nice, but you realize we are getting close to having human beings who can join the military who will have been born when Musk first started promising the profitability of his electric car company? That's kind of nuts.


I simply don't agree. How many units does a manufacturer need to sell to be considered a player? True they are the smallest of the players.

Demand..for sure a possible problem.
We'll see- Ive been hearing about how demand will sink with the tax rebate, but that has not been the case so far.
I believe their little SUV will be a blockbuster that they should have made that first.

We are 12 years in, and the very latest from the big boys in Europe cant match teslas 12-year-old product. The etrons efficiency is a JOKE as is the Jaguars.


I completely understand profitability. The investor community is more patient than I was.
Although tesla has only been profitable 1 quarter that doenst mean they haven't created tons of profit in the marketplace, from ealry investor that bought in and guys that played the stock right in both directions.

I bought tesla at 50 and sold st 250.
I sold because I believe they will and do have big challenges and possibly be bought out.

UD







Fair enough.

And we both know that the reason why nobody has beat Tesla at their own game is because their electric efforts are meant mostly for compliance with regulations.

Tesla's game is selling WAY less cars than the big guys while hemorrhaging cash. Can you blame them for not going far out of their way to duplicate that business model?

What makes somebody a player? Market share and financial clout. Long term viability. We know how many customers there are for an ICE car. Do we know how many there are for a BEV car? Is it even alot in the grand scheme of things?

This is why Tesla is not a player. For all we know, the Law of Diminishing Returns takes its toll on the entire BEV market and leaves it a niche market that never gets out. We just don't know right now.

That little chart about the Model 3 being the best selling luxury car is as bad a sign as anything. Further establishes the assumption that the only market for these cars is the affluent.

I'm glad you made money on the whole thing. Kudos.

You should remember that the big companies are not completely stupid. Ever heard of the De Havilland Comet? Sometimes it's better to stand back and watch the pioneer go through all of the trouble so you can come in later and swallow all of his customers while he's struggling to figure out the next step.
 
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by BMWTurboDzl



You're not a player in the market unless you can make money. Other than bragging rights none of the accolades, technology, mean anything without profit. The only reason I can think of as to why investors have held on so long is that they believe EV's are essentially going to mandated by Govt policymakers as more regulations legislate the ICE passenger vehicle out of existence.


That may be your opinion (and others) but is simply not true; Tesla is certainly a player. Others are struggling to catch up.
It is thought that GM loses $$ on Volts and Bolts.

Mass producing a new product like a Tesla, with no prior car manufacturing experience of any kind, is a huge undertaking.
Musk has stated that these early cars are a learning ground for future electric cars for the masses. No small task.

Much of Tesla's software is open source; he offers it to other companies to help in their development.
As far as investors go, they are in the business of making money. They believe the stock is a good investment.
Investment and a company's financials are 2 different things.

Will he make it? Time will tell, but he is betting his fortune on it.
Musk has made tons of blunders, both in the car's manufacturing and his statements.
But he ain't done yet and so far he is beating all the big guys.

No, they are not struggling to catch up. Others have FAR, FAR better portfolio and do not have to rush and bet on a single product. They are working on fully EV's, but just because they are not offering them does not mean they do not have technology. For a company like BMW to move to fully EV, they have to 1. transition traditional buyers to EV's, and b. offer bunch of other vehicles, not only 3, 5 or 7 series. For BMW, US is important, but much more important is EU, and they have to offer more complex vehicles over there that meet different market requirements.
Tesla's advantage in this particular case is: a. Starting in unique segment and b. more than generous subsidies. However, time will tell how they going to stack up when Toyota or others offer full EV.
 
Originally Posted by UncleDave
Originally Posted by chrisri
Bmw sold in 2018 820000 units in EU, Tesla sold 29xxx the same year.



Let's say that number is true.


The 29K Tesla sold came out of everyone else sales. the incumbents lost 29K unit sales of premium segment auto to a new company.

If you were to guess the future do you think Telsa will grow or shrink in the EU?

What do you think that number will be for 2019?




UD


Tesla will grow, any new product will chip away initially any market share of other companies.
Your argument would fly with someone who never sold lemonade on street as a seven year olds. That means they are younger than that.
 
Originally Posted by UncleDave
Originally Posted by edyvw

So basically, you are buying public transportation?
As for over the air updates, why would I want that?
Again proof that vehicle is made to appeal video game audience.
And Sandy besides working on F35, Tesla, worked on BMW? Audi? Lexus?


public transportation?!??!??!?

Nope - you don't understand packing density. - the fewer components you need the cheaper you can build the car
the fewer board you need the lower the overall system latency.

Over air- really? - so you don't have to go to the dealer for patches or updates to various subsystems - happens all the time these days.

Sandy tears down everyone's cars- he wasn't particularly a fan of tesla to begin with.

What do video games have to do with any of that? you keep repeating this like you kept repeating f35 "control and interface" - off in your own world.



You have provided the board with absolutely no information from any 3rd party to support any of your positions.


UD






1. Cheaper? So why Tesla is so expensive if it is a. cheaper + has such generous subsidies?
2. Over the air? I am in security "business" I do not want my vehicle that has two kids inside to be able to update over the air. I get an appeal, but anyone who read any kind of news would understand why this might be a problem.
Sandy can tear down anything he wants, still does not mean that makes any sense in real life. I already asked you, so what if it is faster? How faster?
Again, yes, it is video game appeal. Anyone who gets attracted to that horrid interior has their lives revolving around desktop.
 
Originally Posted by edyvw
time will tell how they going to stack up when Toyota or others offer full EV.
Toyota already offers a full EV, and they have moved right past battery technology in doing so. The Toyota Mirai is a hydrogen fuel cell powered EV and is available now in limited areas (where the necessary hydrogen refueling infrastructure exists). This is not currently a viable EV option for everyone, yet, but in the future it might very well become THE EV technology of choice. The Mirai is much more advanced than any other EV on the market, including Tesla, and Toyota is WAY ahead of everyone else in this space. Furthermore, the price of the Mirai is about the same as a well equipped Tesla Model 3, and it is a real usable 5-passenger car, not a mini or micro car. Hyundai announced that they are developing hydrogen fuel cell powered EVs, and the Chinese are also rumored to be developing them. My question is this, what if anything are the American and German manufacturers doing to try and compete in this space?
https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html?
https://www.npr.org/2019/03/18/700877189/japan-is-betting-big-on-the-future-of-hydrogen-cars
 
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by BMWTurboDzl



You're not a player in the market unless you can make money. Other than bragging rights none of the accolades, technology, mean anything without profit. The only reason I can think of as to why investors have held on so long is that they believe EV's are essentially going to mandated by Govt policymakers as more regulations legislate the ICE passenger vehicle out of existence.


That may be your opinion (and others) but is simply not true; Tesla is certainly a player. Others are struggling to catch up.
It is thought that GM loses $$ on Volts and Bolts.

Mass producing a new product like a Tesla, with no prior car manufacturing experience of any kind, is a huge undertaking.
Musk has stated that these early cars are a learning ground for future electric cars for the masses. No small task.

Much of Tesla's software is open source; he offers it to other companies to help in their development.
As far as investors go, they are in the business of making money. They believe the stock is a good investment.
Investment and a company's financials are 2 different things.

Will he make it? Time will tell, but he is betting his fortune on it.
Musk has made tons of blunders, both in the car's manufacturing and his statements.
But he ain't done yet and so far he is beating all the big guys.



I'd say that without a doubt they've been disruptive. For example their ability to avoid having to adhere to state franchise laws is a win in my book. Another is the built in the ability to perform OTA updates to various systems. They certainly have shown what unlimited funding can do. Defenders of the brand truly under realize or chose to ignore the outsized influence that Tesla's funding structure has had on the viability of the company.

My cousin (who doesn't live far from you) commutes in a Model 3. He's been very pleased with the performance in that regard. His wife on the other hand can't stand the regenerative braking at any setting.
 
Originally Posted by wag123
Originally Posted by edyvw
time will tell how they going to stack up when Toyota or others offer full EV.
Toyota already offers a full EV, and they have moved right past battery technology in doing so. The Toyota Mirai is a hydrogen fuel cell powered EV and is available now in limited areas (where the necessary hydrogen refueling infrastructure exists). This is not currently a viable EV option for everyone, yet, but in the future it might very well become THE EV technology of choice. The Mirai is much more advanced than any other EV on the market, including Tesla, and Toyota is WAY ahead of everyone else in this space. Furthermore, the price of the Mirai is about the same as a well equipped Tesla Model 3, and it is a real usable 5-passenger car, not a mini or micro car. Hyundai announced that they are developing hydrogen fuel cell powered EVs, and the Chinese are also rumored to be developing them. My question is this, what if anything are the American and German manufacturers doing to try and compete in this space?
https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html?
https://www.npr.org/2019/03/18/700877189/japan-is-betting-big-on-the-future-of-hydrogen-cars






And to add, Toyota is developing a ecosystem instead of just passenger vehicles. They are way ahead of everyone.

https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/20546438.html
 
Originally Posted by wag123
Originally Posted by edyvw
time will tell how they going to stack up when Toyota or others offer full EV.
Toyota already offers a full EV, and they have moved right past battery technology in doing so. The Toyota Mirai is a hydrogen fuel cell powered EV and is available now in limited areas (where the necessary hydrogen refueling infrastructure exists). This is not currently a viable EV option for everyone, yet, but in the future it might very well become THE EV technology of choice. The Mirai is much more advanced than any other EV on the market, including Tesla, and Toyota is WAY ahead of everyone else in this space. Furthermore, the price of the Mirai is about the same as a well equipped Tesla Model 3, and it is a real usable 5-passenger car, not a mini or micro car. Hyundai announced that they are developing hydrogen fuel cell powered EVs, and the Chinese are also rumored to be developing them. My question is this, what if anything are the American and German manufacturers doing to try and compete in this space?
https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html?
https://www.npr.org/2019/03/18/700877189/japan-is-betting-big-on-the-future-of-hydrogen-cars


My point was that they are still holding off wide application. What will then happen? There is reason why BMW joined forces with Toyota. Toyota needs ICE for various models and BMW needs viable EV technology. Let's wait for EV's to be predominant portfolio of major companies, and then see who will survive and how.
 
Originally Posted by edyvw


1. Cheaper? So why Tesla is so expensive if it is a. cheaper + has such generous subsidies?
2. Over the air? I am in security "business" I do not want my vehicle that has two kids inside to be able to update over the air. I get an appeal, but anyone who read any kind of news would understand why this might be a problem.
Sandy can tear down anything he wants, still does not mean that makes any sense in real life. I already asked you, so what if it is faster? How faster?
Again, yes, it is video game appeal. Anyone who gets attracted to that horrid interior has their lives revolving around desktop.



Cheaper in that fewer components and connectors allow for lower cost and latency than more boards and connections. (its all detailed discussed online how saving is achieved)
On subsidies, every manufacturer in the EV space has them, but we've already gone over that and it has nothing to do with board-level engineering.

The security is there and if you are in IT you should know that.
Your bank, SAP, Oracle and every major accounting system is now cloud-based.
We' manufacture FIPs compliant hardware, so I'm familiar with the topic myself.

Being in security just how are you qualified to comment on auto manufacturing?
What does and doenst make sense to you isn't meaningful to what 3rd party experts have determined.

I already answered you, the benefit of the tech is it has allowed speed, and density, latency packaging improvements.,
The speed allow every subsystem to perform better than a slower subsystem.
More frames per second on-camera analysis, better abs, and AWD, faster response to throttle input, IF you want more specific details watch the content.

Your opinion on such matter although entertaining to watch unfold arent relevant as you have no expertise in the subject matter, and aren't well-read on it enough to proffer and information aside from your personal opinions.

On teslas interior, I'm not a fan of such ultra minimalism myself, but thats my opinion.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted by wag123
Originally Posted by edyvw
time will tell how they going to stack up when Toyota or others offer full EV.
Toyota already offers a full EV, and they have moved right past battery technology in doing so. The Toyota Mirai is a hydrogen fuel cell powered EV and is available now in limited areas (where the necessary hydrogen refueling infrastructure exists). This is not currently a viable EV option for everyone, yet, but in the future it might very well become THE EV technology of choice. The Mirai is much more advanced than any other EV on the market, including Tesla, and Toyota is WAY ahead of everyone else in this space. Furthermore, the price of the Mirai is about the same as a well equipped Tesla Model 3, and it is a real usable 5-passenger car, not a mini or micro car. Hyundai announced that they are developing hydrogen fuel cell powered EVs, and the Chinese are also rumored to be developing them. My question is this, what if anything are the American and German manufacturers doing to try and compete in this space?
https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html?
https://www.npr.org/2019/03/18/700877189/japan-is-betting-big-on-the-future-of-hydrogen-cars




Hydrogen is energy intensive to produce so I doubt the Greens in Europe would support it. BMW for example spent a lot of money developing a dual fuel gas/hydrogen vehicle back in the early 2000's and yet they had no luck in getting traction to build out a refueling infrastructure. The end game for transportation in the 1st world at least is self-driving EV.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted by wag123
Originally Posted by edyvw
time will tell how they going to stack up when Toyota or others offer full EV.
Toyota already offers a full EV, and they have moved right past battery technology in doing so. The Toyota Mirai is a hydrogen fuel cell powered EV and is available now in limited areas (where the necessary hydrogen refueling infrastructure exists). This is not currently a viable EV option for everyone, yet, but in the future it might very well become THE EV technology of choice. The Mirai is much more advanced than any other EV on the market, including Tesla, and Toyota is WAY ahead of everyone else in this space. Furthermore, the price of the Mirai is about the same as a well equipped Tesla Model 3, and it is a real usable 5-passenger car, not a mini or micro car. Hyundai announced that they are developing hydrogen fuel cell powered EVs, and the Chinese are also rumored to be developing them. My question is this, what if anything are the American and German manufacturers doing to try and compete in this space?
https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html?
https://www.npr.org/2019/03/18/700877189/japan-is-betting-big-on-the-future-of-hydrogen-cars




Hydrogen is laughable.

The entire energy chain end to end has so many conversions the efficiency is way off just charging a battery

use a ton of energy to crack it from water
use tons of energy to compress and liquify it
use more energy to transport it
Build a dedicated station to supply it
Pump it back into an auto -
convert it back to electricity to power the vehicle

VS plug the car into your house.

Toyota is ahead in this space because no one else bothers.


UD
 
Originally Posted by wag123
The Mirai is much more advanced than any other EV on the market, including Tesla


The Mirai is a flop - it's basically a fancy Prius with a fuel cell stack instead of a ICE and hand built at the same plant that built the Lexus LFA. Even where there is some H2 infrastructure, I see so little of them. In the Bay Area, you needed to drive to a PG&E yard or the only accessible fueling station at one of the local transit operators. The FCX Clarity was almost vaporware, the Clarity I've seen but Honda really wants to lease one closed-end, like what GM did with the EV1.

What made the Prius a success instead of a failure was that it was affordable(with a decently high level of standard equipment), had less compromises compared to the 1st gen Insight, and drove like a regular car despite its geeky looks. Fuel cells still haven't hit economies of scale to make FCEVs affordable(under $40K). The market for them, compared to Li-Ion batteries isn't stable and there is only one mainstream commercial producer of fuel cell stacks - Ballard Systems in Vancouver, Canada. UTC pulled out of the market after collaborating with AC Transit in Oakland, CA who is so far the only major user of fuel cell buses(and those buses aren't cheap, I think one lists for well over $1 million).

Honda and Toyota are making their own fuel cell stacks. Which isn't great for economies of scale.
 
Originally Posted by UncleDave
Originally Posted by edyvw


1. Cheaper? So why Tesla is so expensive if it is a. cheaper + has such generous subsidies?
2. Over the air? I am in security "business" I do not want my vehicle that has two kids inside to be able to update over the air. I get an appeal, but anyone who read any kind of news would understand why this might be a problem.
Sandy can tear down anything he wants, still does not mean that makes any sense in real life. I already asked you, so what if it is faster? How faster?
Again, yes, it is video game appeal. Anyone who gets attracted to that horrid interior has their lives revolving around desktop.



Cheaper in that fewer components and connectors allow for lower cost and latency than more boards and connections. (its all detailed discussed online how saving is achieved)
On subsidies, every manufacturer in the EV space has them, but we've already gone over that and it has nothing to do with board-level engineering.

The security is there and if you are in IT you should know that.
Your bank, SAP, Oracle and every major accounting system is now cloud-based.
We' manufacture FIPs compliant hardware, so I'm familiar with the topic myself.

Being in security just how are you qualified to comment on auto manufacturing?
What does and doenst make sense to you isn't meaningful to what 3rd party experts have determined.

I already answered you, the benefit of the tech is it has allowed speed, and density, latency packaging improvements.,
The speed allow every subsystem to perform better than a slower subsystem.
More frames per second on-camera analysis, better abs, and AWD, faster response to throttle input, IF you want more specific details watch the content.

Your opinion on such matter although entertaining to watch unfold arent relevant as you have no expertise in the subject matter, and aren't well-read on it enough to proffer and information aside from your personal opinions.

On teslas interior, I'm not a fan of such ultra minimalism myself, but thats my opinion.




So what you saying is, I take my kids and put them in my checking account and drive down the road 80mph?
 
US Market Share

F23C4F00-3CE0-4775-A26E-7B7BC48FADC2.png
 
The other issue with hydrogen is that it isn't currently produced in a method that's an improvement in environmental impact. The VRE crowd like to plug wind and solar using electrolysis as a viable method, but that's insane. The reason it is primarily extracted from NG is because it's vastly more efficient.

There's some promise in using UHT nukes to essentially produce it as a waste product, with the primary purpose of the plant being power generation, but that's still got a LONG way to go.
 
Originally Posted by edyvw

So what you saying is, I take my kids and put them in my checking account and drive down the road 80mph?



No, you are saying that.

Thats a facile analogy.


UD
 
Originally Posted by 4WD
US Market Share



Let's look at the US auto sales figures by brand and sort by growth.

Im using goodbadcar.com as the source.


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