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Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: PimTac] #5043877
03/15/19 02:02 PM
03/15/19 02:02 PM
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 934
Ca USA
BusyLittleShop Offline
BusyLittleShop  Offline

Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 934
Ca USA
Regardless of hours or Country of origin I see a routine flight for pilots who understands the systems... you will always have your prime pilots like Sully and then you will always have mere stick actuators... its up to the pilot to be fully qualified before tackling PIC...

Last edited by BusyLittleShop; 03/15/19 02:07 PM.

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Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: JustN89] #5043893
03/15/19 02:21 PM
03/15/19 02:21 PM
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 22,596
Central Florida
Mr Nice Offline
Mr Nice  Offline

Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 22,596
Central Florida
Probably lots of customers will cancel their 737 Max orders and buy Airbus.

Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: oil_film_movies] #5044002
03/15/19 03:44 PM
03/15/19 03:44 PM
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 9,744
Virginia Beach
Astro14 Online content
Astro14  Online Content

Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 9,744
Virginia Beach
Originally Posted by oil_film_movies
Originally Posted by PimTac
Captain Sullenberger has chimed in.
Sullenberger? Not many people know he himself didn't follow the most fundamental aircrew training principle that any pilot, from Cessna's to A380's, should perform: Follow target airspeed. ... in his famous ditching on the Hudson. (Look at the data for that incident, and you'll see he ignored the Green Dot airspeed target, basic and fundamental for piloting.) He almost stalled his Airbus A320 and killed everyone on board.

Sullenberger is one of those elite pilots, sure, this is true. A great guy too, played by Hanks well, granted. .... Yet, if he is complaining about Lion Air or Ethiopian aircrews not recoginizing runaway stab pitch trim & flipping the cutout switches, then he should fully address his own behavior in a panicked, weird, novel, new, situaiton in the air that he utterly failed at.

So precious:
Sully: "We do not yet know what challenges the pilots faced or what they were able to do, but everyone who is entrusted with the lives of passengers and crew by being in a pilot seat of an airliner must be armed with the knowledge, skill, experience, and judgment to be able to handle the unexpected and be the absolute master of the aircraft and all its systems, and of the situation. A cockpit crew must be a team of experts, not a captain and an apprentice." --- So, Sully, if a person as saintly as you claim to be, with all your experience, can't even target the correct airspeed in a panicked situaion, why not recognize how the human brain really works in panic situations instead of playing this "I'm superior and an 'apprentice' is dirt" game?


I think your point is ridiculous. Sully "failed" to maintain the proper airspeed? When? What's your source?

Who are you to criticize his performance?

What flying experience do you have? How many hours in the A-320?


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Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: Mr Nice] #5044009
03/15/19 03:51 PM
03/15/19 03:51 PM
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 9,744
Virginia Beach
Astro14 Online content
Astro14  Online Content

Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 9,744
Virginia Beach
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Probably lots of customers will cancel their 737 Max orders and buy Airbus.


Doubt it.

When the DC-10 was grounded, there weren't a bunch of cancellations.

When the 787 was grounded, there weren't a bunch of cancellations.

And the 787 has over 1,000 back orders right now...

Buying an airplane isn't like buying a car. You buy the training, the logistics support, the interiors, the engines, etc. That means that you can't change fleet decisions easily. Once you've made the long-lead investment in support structure, it will be very, very expensive to switch.

United, for example, has 14 MAX airplanes, but has already spent over $100 million in buying training capacity (simulators alone are $25 million each, and you have to build the building to house them).

Many airlines have bought the MAX to keep training costs down. The MAX requires only a short (few days) differences training for a current 737 pilot. That saves six figures per pilot over a full transition/qualification course.

And ordering an A-320 NEO right now puts you at the end of the queue - you can get one several years from now, maybe, where your MAX delivery is already scheduled.


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Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: PimTac] #5044101
03/15/19 04:57 PM
03/15/19 04:57 PM
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,077
Ontario Canada
cjcride Offline
cjcride  Offline

Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,077
Ontario Canada
Sully landed with the gear up. Much less drag.

No deaths says it all.

Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: Astro14] #5044108
03/15/19 05:02 PM
03/15/19 05:02 PM
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 16,616
OH
fdcg27 Offline
fdcg27  Offline

Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 16,616
OH
Originally Posted by Astro14
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Probably lots of customers will cancel their 737 Max orders and buy Airbus.


Doubt it.

And ordering an A-320 NEO right now puts you at the end of the queue - you can get one several years from now, maybe, where your MAX delivery is already scheduled.


This^^
The A320 neo and the 737 MAX are functionally equivalent and both are their makers volume leaders by a considerable margin.
There is far more demand for aircraft in this space than in any larger or smaller capacity segment of the airliner market.
All of the airlines that have these aircraft ordered need them urgently for either fleet replacements or for growth or both.
The bottom line is that no airline can afford to turn its back on an existing order for either since the current delivery backlog for both is measured in years.
There is nothing fundamentally wrong with this iteration of this venerable Boeing design and whatever issues emerge will be quickly and cheaply resolved.
People also have short memories and the current hysteria over the MAX will be forgotten in no time at all when people next shop a flight.


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Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: Astro14] #5044191
03/15/19 05:43 PM
03/15/19 05:43 PM
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,564
MN
oil_film_movies Offline
oil_film_movies  Offline

Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,564
MN
Originally Posted by Astro14
I think your point is ridiculous. Sully "failed" to maintain the proper airspeed? When? What's your source?
FDR plots, of course. Its all been public for a long time. Surprised I have to tell you that. Weird response. .... Still whining? Read the NTSB report before taking swipes at the truth. Geeez.

Originally Posted by Astro14
Who are you to criticize his performance?
Lots of other pilots & flight control engineers have. Its obvious basic airmanship says to fly the right airspeed.

Originally Posted by Astro14
What flying experience do you have? How many hours in the A-320?
Plenty enough to know one should fly airspeed. You don't need an A320 to understand and use speed-on-pitch basic fundamental techniques and Green Dot. Wow, you're in weird attack mode today. Chill & think a little.

Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: fdcg27] #5044204
03/15/19 05:50 PM
03/15/19 05:50 PM
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,564
MN
oil_film_movies Offline
oil_film_movies  Offline

Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,564
MN
Originally Posted by fdcg27
There is nothing fundamentally wrong with this iteration of this venerable Boeing design and whatever issues emerge will be quickly and cheaply resolved. .. People also have short memories and the current hysteria over the MAX will be forgotten in no time at all when people next shop a flight.
That is true. While the use of stab pitch trim in high-alpha stall conditions due to the big forward engines makes me a bit design-queasy as a flight controls engineer, it can and will be solved by the correct use of AoA vane redundancy (with other sources) which I, and many people I've worked with, would have lobbied for or just insisted on doing, possibly against the wishes of some Vice President somewhere.

Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: oil_film_movies] #5044237
03/15/19 06:16 PM
03/15/19 06:16 PM
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 16,616
OH
fdcg27 Offline
fdcg27  Offline

Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 16,616
OH
The terms "speed" and "stall" are often conjoined but really shouldn't be. All wings stall at a certain angle of attack without regard to airspeed, although airspeed does play a role in when that stalling angle of attack is reached. The slower an aircraft flies, the greater the angle of attack required to maintain the necessary amount of lift.
The real question here is what control regime the A320 was in when ditched into the river.
In Normal Law, the aircraft will not allow a stalling angle of attack to be reached regardless of how hard the pilot flying pulls the sidestick back, so the pilot need not be too concerned about speed.
In Alternate Law, direct mode is activated in pitch, so there is no stall envelope protection.
In Direct Law, the aircraft will do exactly what the pilot commands and so can be stalled, rolled onto its back or whatever.
The mode in which this A320 was operating does matter, so I'd not be so quick to dismiss the efforts of the pilot flying to bring about a successful ditching and since he was experienced in the type, he probably knew what he needed to make himself aware of and what he could safely ignore.
His focus would have been upon the forced landing site and not precise speed control.


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Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: PimTac] #5044269
03/15/19 06:36 PM
03/15/19 06:36 PM
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 6,434
Fort Lauderdale, FL
DoubleWasp Offline
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Posts: 6,434
Fort Lauderdale, FL
Uneducated question: Was there something about that situation that would have not made it possible for him to maintain "Green Dot" speed?


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Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: DoubleWasp] #5044318
03/15/19 07:14 PM
03/15/19 07:14 PM
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,564
MN
oil_film_movies Offline
oil_film_movies  Offline

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Posts: 4,564
MN
Originally Posted by fdcg27
The real question here is what control regime the A320 was in when ditched into the river.
Read QuagmireAirline's post in https://www.pprune.org/tech-log/594787-sully-s-flare-hudson-airbus-phugoid-feedback.html where he cites the Performance Study, etc., and, yes, Airbus's control laws in alpha-protect prevented a full flare and Sully did a good job of trying to get the fuselage to ideal ditching pitch angle. Sully did a lot of things right, I have no doubt. Also read the NTSB accident report for a better summary than I care to provide here. Summary is at: https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/accidentreports/pages/aar1003.aspx and Full report at: https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/AAR1003.pdf

Originally Posted by fdcg27
His focus would have been upon the forced landing site and not precise speed control.

Originally Posted by DoubleWasp
Uneducated question: Was there something about that situation that would have not made it possible for him to maintain "Green Dot" speed?

It's true Sully may have been trying to find a spot on the river safe to land on. However, this would have been only necessary in the later stages, nearer the river. He came very close to a stall spin accident by flying nose-high (low airspeed), and Green Dot allows greatest range (efficiency). Green Dot is there for a reason, and they are trained to use it.
No, there is no excuse for not flying Green Dot.

Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: PimTac] #5044363
03/15/19 07:53 PM
03/15/19 07:53 PM
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 9,328
...
PimTac Offline OP
PimTac  Offline OP

Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 9,328
...
Was he trying to avoid river traffic or obstacles like bridges?

If none of us were there then we have no right to judge. The outcome was favorable. That is what matters.


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Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: Astro14] #5044515
03/15/19 10:25 PM
03/15/19 10:25 PM
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 981
California
mbacfp Offline
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Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 981
California
Originally Posted by Astro14
I think we talked a bit about the 737 MAX flight control system in the Lion Air thread.

Too early to tell anything, but I will say this: if faced with a flight control problem, I’m not troubleshooting in the air. I will do what I need to get the airplane in a safe configuration to land and NO MORE.

I’m going to land it and let maintenance figure it out.

Back in the days when I had an ejection seat, I would fiddle with stuff in the air and give our guys all the data points and analysis they needed to fix the airplane the first time.

These days, I don’t do that.

Lion Air pilots did that...they fiddled with the MACS over and over to try and get it to work. The previous flight, the mishap airplane had a problem, and the crew did some in flight troubleshooting and continued on to destination.

Crazy.

I think that in the course of investigation and cause, that we, of BITOG, will cover a lot of the same concepts we did in the Lion Air thread:

https://www.bobistheoilguy.com/forums/ubbthreads.php/topics/4908879/1

Limits of flight control authority, ability to over-ride systems, systems engineering philosophy, training, startle response, judgement...


I remember the terrible Alaska 262 crash into the Pacific Ocean off Anacapa. Believe it was an MD-80 and they lost vertical control of the airplane...the jackscrew assembly broke in the vertical stabilizer. It later came out that the crew continued get the trim feature to work while in flight (which went against what Alaska told them to do) and hastened the jackscrew failure while in flight. So sad when these things happen.


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Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: PimTac] #5044595
03/16/19 01:05 AM
03/16/19 01:05 AM
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 20,924
PNW
ZeeOSix Offline
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PNW

Re: Ethiopian ET302 Crash. [Re: oil_film_movies] #5044779
03/16/19 09:58 AM
03/16/19 09:58 AM
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 9,744
Virginia Beach
Astro14 Online content
Astro14  Online Content

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Virginia Beach
Originally Posted by oil_film_movies
Originally Posted by Astro14
I think your point is ridiculous. Sully "failed" to maintain the proper airspeed? When? What's your source?
FDR plots, of course. Its all been public for a long time. Surprised I have to tell you that. Weird response. .... Still whining? Read the NTSB report before taking swipes at the truth. Geeez.

Originally Posted by Astro14
Who are you to criticize his performance?
Lots of other pilots & flight control engineers have. Its obvious basic airmanship says to fly the right airspeed.

Originally Posted by Astro14
What flying experience do you have? How many hours in the A-320?
Plenty enough to know one should fly airspeed. You don't need an A320 to understand and use speed-on-pitch basic fundamental techniques and Green Dot. Wow, you're in weird attack mode today. Chill & think a little.


I did chill.

I did think.

I went back and re-read the entire NTSB report on 1549.

Your point is, at best, a specious oversimplification.

Look, Sully got 10-15 knots off green dot during the initial turn and assesment.

So what?

He managed an incredibly difficult, complex, untested, surprise situation with aplomb. He made every correct decision and everyone on board lived as a result of rapid, proper decision-making.

To value airspeed finesse over that is simply ridiculous.

The NTSB (and you) failed to examine the effect that changing control laws, low hydraulic pressure (given the engine RPM and hydraulic loads as the flaps were extended) and response to TCAS and obstacle warnings had on fine aircraft control. That’s a glaring omission in analysis on both your parts.

I’ve flown the Sully (and AF447) scenarios in the A-320 simulator. The level-D full motion simulator at my airline, when I was an Airbus pilot. Neither scenario is as simple as lay people like to think. The airplane doesn’t respond normally, or even well, to pitch input when the engines are rolled back, as they were in Sully’s case.

So, in addition to making every decision correctly, Sully was flying an airplane that was not responding normally.

Your “speed-on-pitch fundamental techniques” criticism falls completely flat when the airplane isn’t trimming properly, or responding normally, and the pilot in command is properly focused on much more critical issues.


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