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Originally Posted by PandaBear
IMO upgrading distribution and deploy wind turbine to distribute the load, solar if they can be installed cheap, would be a good way to avoid the duck curve. This however will be a much bigger political problem than setting up a local CCGT plant.


Those things only get back twice the energy thta they consume in making them...

I don't get how solar avoids the duck curve, when it CREATES the duck curve.
 
Originally Posted by SubLGT
281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas !? I hope they don't waste it with flaring, like they do in the Permian Basin


Yeah. I could melt a lot of snow with that.
 
Originally Posted by Donald
Just what we don't need. More fossil fuel to pump out of the ground. I guess its better than finding more coal.



Tell your someone to stop flying his private jet all over the place.
 
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Thank you Shannow...
For pointing out the obvious...

And try the lovely solar panels in the Pacific Northwest... Or even the northeast US...
 
Originally Posted by PimTac
"but the thing nobody talks about is our sacrifice - of using less. wanting less. driving smaller. driving slower. I know it's hard to hear from a full-size truck owner, but if I didn't feel so threatened on the roads I'd gladly commute in a go-kart. I like small and simple. (I do stay very close to the speed limit, and enjoy the increased mpg). I never complained about $4 gas because I felt, while it impacted my pocketbook greatly, that 'merican downsizing in vehicles wasn't a bad thing."





For those of us who were around in the early 70's and experienced the high costs of gasoline and the rationing, it left the impression that the impact on the wallet is a important part of the decision of which vehicle to own. It may not be the only factor but it is up there. The small pickup sector really took off after that time period. People driving full size pickups that realized they hardly used them to their capacity downsized to the Toyota and Datsuns.

My thought since has always been, no matter what the price of gasoline is, any savings is real money in your pocketbook.



Hey... PimTac... He needs to talk to his friend... Who flies on a private jet everywhere...
 
Originally Posted by Shannow
Originally Posted by Donald
Originally Posted by Shannow
Originally Posted by Donald
Just what we don't need. More fossil fuel to pump out of the ground. I guess its better than finding more coal.


Interested in what your SOLUTIONS are to providing people and industries with reliable low cost power...

Any hints that you'd like to share with us ?


Accelerate our research into Fusion. Until then solar and wind power.


Sorry, I asked for SOLUTIONS...

try again...


Right on Shannow....

It's not hard to understand.... The math is just not there with solar and wind.... It is a farce and a fantasy...

Donald... Get your friend to use solar power to cross the country next time... Or wind power... He won't get very far I bet.


I want people who really believe in something to actually live by it... I felt the same way about the people on TV in the 80s selling people on a belief system.... Who did not live according to what they said either... Be real. Put up or shut up....

I'm tired of phony people pushing what they think onto others while not living out what they talk about.
 
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Originally Posted by MolaKule
Originally Posted by OVERKILL
Originally Posted by MolaKule
NuScale is testing this:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesc...-passes-biggest-hurdle-yet/#4fd446755bb5



There are a PILE of SMR's in various stages of contracts for builds and implementation. Canada has been extremely receptive to SMR adoption and testing and many of the major utilities are participating in our SMR roadmap program, which I've linked to here in the recent past.

For us, given our mass of CANDU reactors, the Moltex Waste Burner reactor seems to be the obvious choice. It's specifically designed to run on CANDU waste and the minimal final waste product has a storage requirement of only 200 years. Of course you could couple it with a breeder and close the fuel cycle, which is another option once you've used up your spent fuel stores.

Regarding NuScale in particularly, OPG, our provincial (crown, public) generator has signed an MOU with them as of the 7th of November, 2018:
https://newsroom.nuscalepower.com/p...ign-mou-support-smr-expansion-canadian-m

61% of Ontario's electricity comes from Nuclear and there is a lot of excitement that the current administration may actually allow OPG to build Darlington B, which was the second set of units that was supposed to occupy the OPG Darlington site. At this juncture it'll probably end up being another 4-pack of CANDU's, which would push Ontario to ~77% Nuclear. I've proposed, and received some support, for the refurbishment of Pickering B (it's never received its mid-life refurbishment) and the replacement of Pickering A with SMR's once it reaches EOL.



That's good news.

Down here we're still being ignorant thinking wind turbines and Solar will do it all and be available all the time.
crazy2.gif




Exactly right ^^^^^^^

Wind is no where near consistent. Same is true with the sun.

I'm fine with off grid people using either of those.. great. But on a large massive scale it is just not reliable enough or consistent enough. Anyone thinking it would be is in la la fairy tale land.
 
Originally Posted by PandaBear
Nuclear is dead mainly because of the huge financial risk to the nation building them. I was told by a couple Korean and Japanese that many people near Fukushima are starting to die due to the radiation on their home / food source. They were not welcomed by their own neighbor in other regions either, and ended up immigrating to other nations instead (i.e. to S Korea). At this point, only a dictatorship would risk building a new reactor.


There has been a grand total of 1 death attributable to the accident at Fukushima at this juncture, though it is possible that more end up with cancer due to exposure. However that number will be a tiny fraction of those killed by the Tsunami. There are many legitimate reports available that cover the current dose risk (less than a plane flight) in the area. Remember, the plant did not experience an explosion of the primary RPV's releasing core material into the air like Chernobyl, which lacked containment, but rather a hydrogen explosion within secondary containment, that severely damaged the buildings. The core material from the meltdowns is still somewhere below the RPV's.

Britain and France both currently have large-scale nuclear reactors under construction, as does the United States (Vogtle). There are also reactors being built in India, Finland, Korea, Belarus and Russia. I'm still hoping the current administration reverses that of the previous one so that we can build Darlington B.

For a current list of active nuclear builds, you can check this list:
http://www.world-nuclear.org/inform...on/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx

Note that the table shows the expected grid-connected date, these facilities are all currently under construction.

While the Fukushima incident was tragic, currently, more people have died falling off wind turbines than by that triple meltdown.

Originally Posted by PandaBear
IMO upgrading distribution and deploy wind turbine to distribute the load, solar if they can be installed cheap, would be a good way to avoid the duck curve. This however will be a much bigger political problem than setting up a local CCGT plant.


So what do you do when it isn't sunny? What do you do when it isn't windy? There are insufficient storage resources to firm either of those sources at any significant penetration. Our 5,000MW fleet of wind turbines often produces C if you lack enough firm capacity? Gas does. When it's -30C still and overcast, what steps in to make up the difference to allow people to heat their homes? Gas does.

The difference between VRE and a turbine isn't a political problem, the difference is that one can provide reliable firm capacity, the other requires all kinds of contortions, accommodations and backups.
 
Originally Posted by anndel
Time to build more GTL plants in the Gulf.


Yup, or even better, right next to where they are burning off record amounts...
 
Originally Posted by bbhero
Thank you Shannow...
For pointing out the obvious...

And try the lovely solar panels in the Pacific Northwest... Or even the northeast US...


Interestingly, the Northeast sees over 200 days per year of HEAVY cloud cover. With an area ranging from Pittsburgh, PA, to Rochester, NY.

More telling is that that same geographical area is showing over 300 cloudy days. The sun is obscured from 25% to 100% of the time.
 
Originally Posted by Cujet
Originally Posted by bbhero
Thank you Shannow...
For pointing out the obvious...

And try the lovely solar panels in the Pacific Northwest... Or even the northeast US...


Interestingly, the Northeast sees over 200 days per year of HEAVY cloud cover. With an area ranging from Pittsburgh, PA, to Rochester, NY.

More telling is that that same geographical area is showing over 300 cloudy days. The sun is obscured from 25% to 100% of the time.






The last couple of years with the wildfires we've had in the PNW have shown that the panels lose efficiency as the ash and soot layer on top of them requiring them to be cleaned. Imagine this in California where there are huge solar farms. It's even worse if the wildfire itself reaches the solar farm. These panels burn very hot and of course you have the monetary loss and replacement costs to consider. Anything that has that size of footprint will be exposed more to hazards.
 
Originally Posted by OVERKILL

There has been a grand total of 1 death attributable to the accident at Fukushima at this juncture, though it is possible that more end up with cancer due to exposure. However that number will be a tiny fraction of those killed by the Tsunami. There are many legitimate reports available that cover the current dose risk (less than a plane flight) in the area. Remember, the plant did not experience an explosion of the primary RPV's releasing core material into the air like Chernobyl, which lacked containment, but rather a hydrogen explosion within secondary containment, that severely damaged the buildings. The core material from the meltdowns is still somewhere below the RPV's.


There are enough property / land / infrastructure lost that makes future plant construction prohibitively expensive. It is political and psychological instead of technical cost, as you already know the most expensive cost to nuclear plant these days are delays from lawsuits and interest on loans, not the plant's construction.

Quote
Britain and France both currently have large-scale nuclear reactors under construction, as does the United States (Vogtle). There are also reactors being built in India, Finland, Korea, Belarus and Russia. I'm still hoping the current administration reverses that of the previous one so that we can build Darlington B.

For a current list of active nuclear builds, you can check this list:
http://www.world-nuclear.org/inform...on/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx

Note that the table shows the expected grid-connected date, these facilities are all currently under construction.

While the Fukushima incident was tragic, currently, more people have died falling off wind turbines than by that triple meltdown.


Compare to natural gas and hydro they are still too risky and cost too much. I do see the benefits of energy independence (France) being the major reason for nuke, but no one will finance one unless government will take over the cost overrun. Maybe that's why China has no problem building them but not too many in the West.

Quote
So what do you do when it isn't sunny? What do you do when it isn't windy? There are insufficient storage resources to firm either of those sources at any significant penetration. Our 5,000MW fleet of wind turbines often produces C if you lack enough firm capacity? Gas does. When it's -30C still and overcast, what steps in to make up the difference to allow people to heat their homes? Gas does.

The difference between VRE and a turbine isn't a political problem, the difference is that one can provide reliable firm capacity, the other requires all kinds of contortions, accommodations and backups.


1) Spreading the grid across a whole continent. Averaging the load from Alaska to Mexico would really soften the weather, averaging them across 3 timezone and the duck curve will average out. It will cost money but it is going to benefit other energy source as well.

2) Keep the other fossil fuel plant idle with labor managing them as cold spare, yes it cost money but regardless we should do that for redundancy anyways, charge the solar and wind customers for this, I think it is fair.

3) What do you do when gas and coal plants run into problem in hot summer day or power grid went down? You still have this problem and you still have to pay sky high spot market rate. Yes the effect is much lower than solar / wind but the grid still has the issue. If you do 1 and 2 above it will help (higher cost for solar and wind most of the time but consumer avoided blackout and price spikes).

4) What do you do when you only focus on a few local power source and got price gouging? You still need multi-type, multi-vendors for reliability and to avoid gouging.
 
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Originally Posted by PandaBear

Compare to natural gas and hydro they are still too risky and cost too much.


But they are still being built, hence the list I provided you with.

Originally Posted by PandaBear
I do see the benefits of energy independence (France) being the major reason for nuke, but no one will finance one unless government will take over the cost overrun. Maybe that's why China has no problem building them but not too many in the West.


Governments are the entities that primarily finance them. That's how they were financed in Ontario too. And of course that is who is funding the dozens of them being built in China.


Originally Posted by PandaBear

1) Spreading the grid across a whole continent. Averaging the load from Alaska to Mexico would really soften the weather, averaging them across 3 timezone and the duck curve will average out. It will cost money but it is going to benefit other energy source as well.

2) Keep the other fossil fuel plant idle with labor managing them as cold spare, yes it cost money but regardless we should do that for redundancy anyways, charge the solar and wind customers for this, I think it is fair.

3) What do you do when gas and coal plants run into problem in hot summer day or power grid went down? You still have this problem and you still have to pay sky high spot market rate. Yes the effect is much lower than solar / wind but the grid still has the issue. If you do 1 and 2 above it will help (higher cost for solar and wind most of the time but consumer avoided blackout and price spikes).

4) What do you do when you only focus on a few local power source and got price gouging? You still need multi-type, multi-vendors for reliability and to avoid gouging.


All of that would cost massively more than just building nukes, not to mention the line losses in such a scenario. Replace the current fossil sources with new build Nuclear and you don't need to spend trillions on massive infrastructure expansion just to try and contort the grid and market to accommodate the intermittent nature of VRE, for which you would, despite all of that, STILL need backup power.

Point #2 of your above is the exact opposite direction of where we are trying to head. Idling fossil plants does not appreciably accelerate the decarbonization of power generation, whilst building Nuclear, shuttering fossil plants, effectively does.

As to point #4, we only had a few local power sources, all owned by the government, and we paid some of the lowest generation rates in North America. Before our Green Energy boondoggle here in Ontario, retail rates were $0.045/kWh, they aren't much more than that presently in Quebec, who also has an entirely provincially owned grid. Diversifying our portfolio with distributed privately owned VRE contracts is what royally screwed us, driving up delivery fees to cover the infrastructure expansion to connect all this disparate generation, and rates, to cover the contract costs. It literally worked 180 degrees from your posit.

Amortizing a nuclear plant (we built 3x, with 20 reactors) over 20-30 years with an anticipated 60-80 year lifespan is far more cost effective than amortizing a wind farm over 20 years, that then needs to be replaced, so you are doing that same dance all over again, plus the gas plant needed to back it up. Same goes for solar. And then you are paying to maintain massively more infrastructure to connect all this disparate generation, a cost rarely factored into the sticker price for a kWh of VRE, just like with its backup source.

SMR's are set to change the biggest issue with nuclear: CAPEX. If that becomes more palatable, given that it is a vastly more capable provider of electricity than VRE, we can only hope that they put an end to this madness and restore sanity and reasonable rates to a world that needs inexpensive, reliable fossil-free generation to move into a low-carbon economy.
 
Originally Posted by OVERKILL
Governments are the entities that primarily finance them. That's how they were financed in Ontario too. And of course that is who is funding the dozens of them being built in China.

Exactly. And, without getting political, this should really be no surprise to anyone, since a power generation model through a public utility is far from uncommon. In this province, it doesn't matter if it's nuclear, solar, natural gas, coal, hydroelectric, or a bunch of squirrels spinning a wheel, it's SaskPower's baby, and SaskPower is the public utility owned by the provincial government. There are a couple other oddball scenarios in Saskatchewan, notably Saskatoon and the now-retired power plant a few blocks from my home that is now the Saskatchewan Science Centre, but those were also utility owned, just by different levels of government. The latter was also in Wascana Park, which I'd mentioned to you before, Overkill, which had brought in a bunch of jurisdictional issues, but I digress.
 
You two should read "Diary of an Economic Hit Man"...it describes perfectly what happens in second and third world countries like some of us live.
 
Originally Posted by OVERKILL
All of that would cost massively more than just building nukes, not to mention the line losses in such a scenario. Replace the current fossil sources with new build Nuclear and you don't need to spend trillions on massive infrastructure expansion just to try and contort the grid and market to accommodate the intermittent nature of VRE, for which you would, despite all of that, STILL need backup power.

Point #2 of your above is the exact opposite direction of where we are trying to head. Idling fossil plants does not appreciably accelerate the decarbonization of power generation, whilst building Nuclear, shuttering fossil plants, effectively does.

As to point #4, we only had a few local power sources, all owned by the government, and we paid some of the lowest generation rates in North America. Before our Green Energy boondoggle here in Ontario, retail rates were $0.045/kWh, they aren't much more than that presently in Quebec, who also has an entirely provincially owned grid. Diversifying our portfolio with distributed privately owned VRE contracts is what royally screwed us, driving up delivery fees to cover the infrastructure expansion to connect all this disparate generation, and rates, to cover the contract costs. It literally worked 180 degrees from your posit.

Amortizing a nuclear plant (we built 3x, with 20 reactors) over 20-30 years with an anticipated 60-80 year lifespan is far more cost effective than amortizing a wind farm over 20 years, that then needs to be replaced, so you are doing that same dance all over again, plus the gas plant needed to back it up. Same goes for solar. And then you are paying to maintain massively more infrastructure to connect all this disparate generation, a cost rarely factored into the sticker price for a kWh of VRE, just like with its backup source.

SMR's are set to change the biggest issue with nuclear: CAPEX. If that becomes more palatable, given that it is a vastly more capable provider of electricity than VRE, we can only hope that they put an end to this madness and restore sanity and reasonable rates to a world that needs inexpensive, reliable fossil-free generation to move into a low-carbon economy.


Interesting, thanks for the explanation.

I still don't get how do you amortize the nuke plants for 30 years with an anticipated 80 year lifespan but the wind farm being only 20, but I agree that distribution cost is probably not mentioned everywhere.
 
Originally Posted by PandaBear


Interesting, thanks for the explanation.

I still don't get how do you amortize the nuke plants for 30 years with an anticipated 80 year lifespan but the wind farm being only 20, but I agree that distribution cost is probably not mentioned everywhere.


You are quite welcome. All of the contracts for Wind in Ontario were 20 years because the lifespan of a wind turbine is around 20-25 years. So the amortization roughly aligns with the life of the equipment. The same goes for a solar farm, which has a similar lifespan.

Our local utility built a 10MW solar farm for $45 million. It generates 14,300MWh/year; a 16% Capacity Factor. It is paid, on a 20-year contract, $0.42/kWh. On a non-contract rate, just to break-even over the anticipated 20-year lifespan of the facility it needs to be paid a minimum of $0.157/kWh. And that doesn't account for the interest costs of the money borrowed to build it, nor the fact that solar degrades over time, so that figure is even higher. At the $0.42/kWh rate the facility should have paid for itself in roughly 8 years. Unfortunately, 1/3rd of the panels needed to be replaced due to extremely poor performance. I have no idea what that cost was, but we can safely assume it wasn't free. The replacement panels were by a different vendor, the same one that supplied the remaining 2/3rd of the site.

Raping the ratepayers at $0.42/kWh for 20 years and using a 14,000MWh figure to account for degradation, the facility should pay $118 million over its anticipated lifespan, minus CAPEX, which at 4.5% is $47 million, leaves us with $71 million, which you'd then have to subtract maintenance, repairs....etc from. But it's obvious why they were keen on the contract, because anything past the say 12 year mark, factoring in the panel replacement, is straight profit, extracted directly from ratepayers. If the FIT program had not existed at the time, nobody would have spent $45 million on a plant that would never break even over its lifespan at the going market rate, which was around 4 cents.

Looking at Nuclear, Darlington is currently getting a $13 billion dollar refurbishment. The plant is just shy of 30 years old and cost ~$13 billion to build, the most expensive of our three sites. It has an installed capacity of 3,512MW and operates at a capacity factor of around 91%. This means that every year it can generate 27,000,000MWh. At $0.04/kWh that's $1.1 billion a year in revenue. Figure $300 million for operating costs, you have $800 million profit, which means initial construction payback in 16 years. Years 17 through 30 are straight profit, so you sock some of that away for decommissioning, say $4 billion, and the remaining $7.2 billion for the refurbishment. Then you factor in inflation. Current Ontario rate for Nuclear is around $0.07/kWh, which drives profit up to $1.9 billion, making operating revenue, if we assume costs have gone up to $400 million, $1.5 billion. So you have 50% of the refurbishment (ideally) covered by money socked away from operating revenue for that purpose. At the new adjusted for inflation rate, you can pay back the refurbishment cost in roughly 4 years.

Now, I doubt that's actually how it worked. There was a significant amount of money set aside for decommissioning, but I doubt the profits were socked away for the refurb. They were likely reinvested in OPG with the expectation that future revenue would cover the refurb CAPEX, just like initial operating revenue would have covered the initial CAPEX.

But my point here is that an NPP, despite the massive CAPEX, because of the obscene amount of power it can generate, as well as its extremely long operating life, will, if allowed to operate as it should, recover that CAPEX after less than 20 years. Even with the need for a mid-life refurb with a CANDU, they are still capable of producing extremely cheap power when they are able to run at or near peak CF. The problem is that no private investor is going to want to wait close to 20 years before seeing a profit, which is why these need to be funded publicly. The government, who can borrow at a much lower rate, is looking at the facilities as assets and the primary concern isn't immediate revenue generation. This is paying off in spades in Ontario, as our nukes are our second cheapest generating source behind hydro.
 
Thermal plants are typically designed for 25 years, 150-200,000 hours of operation.

That's the depreciation life on the books in Oz.

But not all of the high temperature and fatigue related components drop dead at that time, there will be "canaries" (my, not industry terminology) that have issues at around that time, and from that point, metallurgical analysis you can work out the remnant life of other components. E.g. I had a high temperature "Y" Piece that suffered creep damage a little before design life. New materials and new welding techniques and it was good for another 25 years, and was only another $250k installed, which then started it's own capital depreciation life.

Turbines are often rebladed/recylindered at 25 years with the intent of resetting the creep life, and attracting the latest in efficiency upgrades....about $15M per cylinder, for 25 years of advances in steam path design.
 
Originally Posted by Shannow
Thermal plants are typically designed for 25 years, 150-200,000 hours of operation.

That's the depreciation life on the books in Oz.

But not all of the high temperature and fatigue related components drop dead at that time, there will be "canaries" (my, not industry terminology) that have issues at around that time, and from that point, metallurgical analysis you can work out the remnant life of other components. E.g. I had a high temperature "Y" Piece that suffered creep damage a little before design life. New materials and new welding techniques and it was good for another 25 years, and was only another $250k installed, which then started it's own capital depreciation life.

Turbines are often rebladed/recylindered at 25 years with the intent of resetting the creep life, and attracting the latest in efficiency upgrades....about $15M per cylinder, for 25 years of advances in steam path design.


thumbsup2.gif
And much of that is an essential part of the ~30 year mid-life refurbishment on a CANDU. Now of course other things are sometimes done before that as you've noted. There have been two up-rates at Bruce for example, and only two units on the A-side have been refurbished. But for the MCR (Major Component Replacement) which is what Bruce Power is calling their refurbishment project, which starts in 2020, many of the things you've mentioned will be replaced.

Now, of note, DNGS A2, which was the first unit to go down for refurb since the two buggered-up BNGS A units (1 & 2) were done when Bruce Power took over the Bruce site, came online in 1990, so it went down three years early, why, I'm not really sure. I've heard some speculation that it was due to the increased # of fuel channels, but that doesn't make sense to me, as BNGS is almost the same design
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The next unit to go down is BNGS B6, which came online in 1984, making its in-service duration 36 years. Everything that isn't the Calandria and RPV will be replaced, which means new steam generators, turbines....etc There may be further uprates as part of this process. Bruce Power notes:

Originally Posted by Bruce Power
The life-extension of each unit will add approximately 30 to 35 years of operational life, while other investments will add a combined 30 reactor years of operational life to the units. This approach provides additional benefit in terms of sequencing life-extension activities and optimizing asset life.


It's basically a sequenced series of refurbs, where the six units at Bruce trade out for the 4 units at Darlington. The next unit to go down at Darlington is Unit 1, followed by BNGS A3 in 2023, which will be 51 years old.

I'm genuinely curious how close to DNGS's 880MW/unit Bruce Power can manage from their old girls. B is presently at 817, A at 779. Bruce is far more eager about increasing output than OPG. IIRC, BNGS is one of if not the best run nuke plant in the world.
 
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