Stock Market - Pathetic Close

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Probably worthwhile mentioning 2018 has been wiped out. Fantastic returns since 2013. Notice I did not say 2009, since it took until 2013 to get back to the 2008 highs. I guess it's all up to where you are measuring from. Good luck in 2019!
smile.gif
 
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Originally Posted by Kage860
According to Shiller P/E we're still overvalued

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/


Thank you and others for signs of intelligent life. I'd love to see faces of Bezos followers after they realise that multiples of 75 (and that is after this correction) require to find the next fool to hold your 'share'.
Because you will never recover your capex unless you are lucky and find the next delusional fellow to pay you for the privilege.
 
Stock market can't keep going up forever at the rate it's been over the last few years - it was headed for a correction at some point since it's over blown in value. It's all driven by big investors and political hype, not by the true health of companies or the economy. Doesn't take much these days to cause big up or down turns in the markets.
 
The biggies make money on the way up, AND the way down.

Pump and dump, and fleece those trying to provide for retirement.
 
Originally Posted by 69GTX
Originally Posted by sloinker
I've lost $50k on paper these last couple months. Discouraging but hopefully a big bounce in 2020 for the following 8 years @10% a year.


Probably not. A major washout will still be due if the market rebounds and goes to fresh highs in a final melt up. The fallout from that will be monstrous....on the same order (or worse) as the 1930's SM crash. We have 80-90 years of excesses to wash out. The overall US housing market is not slated to fully complete its bottoming cycle until around 2033. I think the 2020's will be mostly a rough haul.

The main markets were due for 40/80/120 yr cycle lows back around 2012-2014....which was entirely circumvented by govt QE. And then Trump's election extended it another 2 yrs. So as I see there's still the requirement to pay up. The last major 120 yr cycle low was 1894....the first great depression. Count 5 major waves off the 120+ yr rally. There will be a MAJOR retrace of that 120+ yr move. It's just the way TA and markets tend to work. Some good books on the "4th turning" which are major generational changes now occurring as Boomers check out and Millenials take over.


Thank you. For as fun as it is to claim success or failure in the markets on your political leaning, there's much more to it all.

A correction, this correction, is healthy. Corrections and other bumps are often buying oppportunities. Not sure if the whole 120 year cycle is absolutely correct, we will see, but waves and tracing and retracing are real phenomena. If only we truly understood all of that, and the human and political impacts in earnest...
 
Thank you. For as fun as it is to claim success or failure in the markets on your political leaning, there's much more to it all.

A correction, this correction, is healthy. Corrections and other bumps are often buying oppportunities. Not sure if the whole 120 year cycle is absolutely correct, we will see, but waves and tracing and retracing are real phenomena. If only we truly understood all of that, and the human and political impacts in earnest...[/quote]

I agree. This is indeed healthy IMHO. Broke through 200 day moving average...have to see where the bottom is put in...looking to pounce when the time is right. Watch all the gloom and doom headlines...good grief.
 
Originally Posted by Kode
Good times to invest in something more stable.





A good point. If the recent market downturn is making you lose sleep at night then you should evaluate your risk tolerance and adjust your asset allocation if need be.
 
Originally Posted by 02SE
There are no guarantees. Don't invest more than you're willing to lose.


If a person is starting out they need to max out their 401K and be aggressive. No need to worry about a correction.

If its a brokerage account, yeah you have to be cautious.

Nobody has a crystal ball to 'see' the bottom....
 
Originally Posted by pbm
Originally Posted by 69GTX
Originally Posted by eljefino
Never tired of all this winning!


Did you tire of the winning from March 2009 - Sept 2018? That was 9.5 yrs of winning in the financial sector. Housing did ok too from 2011-2018. What didn't you win at up to the last 2 months?



The Fed left interest rates extremely low from 2008 until 2017 via QA (coincidence or helping somebody's economy look good)....now they are raising rates (and threatening more raises unnecessarily)...possibly to make somebody's economy look bad.....


Correct.
 
Originally Posted by Cujet
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk

For those who can wait it out, they should be OK.


Sadly, that is not always the case. Certain "good" stocks never fully recover. Also, it's good to remember that when adjusted for inflation, some stocks are far behind what they seem to be.

The example of widely held GE stock is interesting. As GE is lower recently ($7) than it was during the 2009 crash! Sure it rose nicely after 2009. But it never again regained it's 2000 peak of near $60. Each subsequent peak was lower at $40, then $30, and now it's at $7.

GE's peak of $59 in 2000 is equal to $87 today.
GE's low of $8.50 in 2009 is equal to $10.15 today.
In 1997 GE's inflation adjusted value matches it's 2014 peak of $32. This is a long way of saying, purchase low and sell high.


GE is a text book example of how a CEO and his ego can run a company into the ground by out of control spending to buy companies and taking on crazy amount of debt.

Not to mention an empty Gulfstream jet following him around the globe everywhere to ensure if his primary jet had problems.... he can jump into spare jet and head home.
smirk.gif


GE Healthcare and Aviation businesses need to separate from GE mothership and let GE go bankrupt.
 
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by Cujet
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk

For those who can wait it out, they should be OK.


Sadly, that is not always the case. Certain "good" stocks never fully recover. Also, it's good to remember that when adjusted for inflation, some stocks are far behind what they seem to be.

The example of widely held GE stock is interesting. As GE is lower recently ($7) than it was during the 2009 crash! Sure it rose nicely after 2009. But it never again regained it's 2000 peak of near $60. Each subsequent peak was lower at $40, then $30, and now it's at $7.

GE's peak of $59 in 2000 is equal to $87 today.
GE's low of $8.50 in 2009 is equal to $10.15 today.
In 1997 GE's inflation adjusted value matches it's 2014 peak of $32. This is a long way of saying, purchase low and sell high.


GE is a text book example of how a CEO and his ego can run a company into the ground by out of control spending to buy companies and taking on crazy amount of debt.

Not to mention an empty Gulfstream jet following him around the globe everywhere to ensure if his primary jet had problems.... he can jump into spare jet and head home.
smirk.gif


GE Healthcare and Aviation businesses need to separate from GE mothership and let GE go bankrupt.



Jack Welch tried to turn GE into a 'banking' company (GE Financial) rather than what it was founded as.....GREEDY.....His successor, Jeff Immelt, wasn't much better. It reminds me of car companies who put MBA's in product development (GM) versus those who put engineers there.....the latter always make cars that people want.....
 
Correction x 2 = BEAR and we're alot closer to bear than correction.,,in fact bear is only days away.
 
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GE stock is back to its early 1990's value. Jack Welch is the father of modern CEOs. Offshoring to China and India to lower the middle line and maximize bottom line.
Get massive stock options to make $$ with low tax burden (capital gains).

This is an example of not having an over weighted portfolio and/or taking profits from time to time.

I have quite a bit of stock in one company that has done very well over the past 25 years.
It was $225 at the peak and is now $127.
From time to time I took profits near the peak and paid stupid low taxes on it.
Probably not enough but I am just as stupid as the next guy.
 
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by 02SE
There are no guarantees. Don't invest more than you're willing to lose.


If a person is starting out they need to max out their 401K and be aggressive. No need to worry about a correction.

If its a brokerage account, yeah you have to be cautious.

Nobody has a crystal ball to 'see' the bottom....


The higher the potential return, generally, the higher the risk.

The point: People need to educate themselves, and make informed decisions.
 
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