Will it make it during this bull run?
Dow 30,000?
- Thread starter gfh77665
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I think it's over bought. Have more cash than I've ever had. I am starting to nibble at emerging markets which have been beaten up pretty bad.
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Its possible if the wheels keep turning...
Makes me nervous...the train can't keep chugging along forever. I already feel like a lot of stocks are expensive, how much farther can it go?
The fact that CD and high yield savings rates are creeping up at a steady pace worries me too...it's great that I'm earning 2.5% yield, but that also means that rates in general are creeping up...
The fact that CD and high yield savings rates are creeping up at a steady pace worries me too...it's great that I'm earning 2.5% yield, but that also means that rates in general are creeping up...
Either it will or it won't.
Nobody knows, and if they did they certainly wouldn't spill the beans on an internet motor oil forum.
Ah, if but only for a crystal ball......
Nobody knows, and if they did they certainly wouldn't spill the beans on an internet motor oil forum.
Ah, if but only for a crystal ball......
It's waiting for the results from a looming Tuesday in November...
Originally Posted by CincyDavid
Makes me nervous...the train can't keep chugging along forever. I already feel like a lot of stocks are expensive, how much farther can it go?
If you truly believe this, it's the perfect instance to short the market. As soon as it runs out of gas and turns, you'll start raking it in.
(SH) Short -1x leveraged against S&P 500.
(SDS) Ultrashort -2x leveraged against S&P 500.
(SPXU) Ultrapro Short -3x leveraged against S&P 500.
Expense ratios around 0.9% are pretty terrible.
This is really a case of needing to put your money where your mouth is.
Unless you're not that confident....
Makes me nervous...the train can't keep chugging along forever. I already feel like a lot of stocks are expensive, how much farther can it go?
If you truly believe this, it's the perfect instance to short the market. As soon as it runs out of gas and turns, you'll start raking it in.
(SH) Short -1x leveraged against S&P 500.
(SDS) Ultrashort -2x leveraged against S&P 500.
(SPXU) Ultrapro Short -3x leveraged against S&P 500.
Expense ratios around 0.9% are pretty terrible.
This is really a case of needing to put your money where your mouth is.
Unless you're not that confident....
Originally Posted by bullwinkle
It's waiting for the results from a looming Tuesday in November...
Yeah, everybody pays the piper eventually....
It's waiting for the results from a looming Tuesday in November...
Yeah, everybody pays the piper eventually....
Originally Posted by Imp4
Originally Posted by CincyDavid
Makes me nervous...the train can't keep chugging along forever. I already feel like a lot of stocks are expensive, how much farther can it go?
If you truly believe this, it's the perfect instance to short the market. As soon as it runs out of gas and turns, you'll start raking it in.
(SH) Short -1x leveraged against S&P 500.
(SDS) Ultrashort -2x leveraged against S&P 500.
(SPXU) Ultrapro Short -3x leveraged against S&P 500.
Expense ratios around 0.9% are pretty terrible.
This is really a case of needing to put your money where your mouth is.
Unless you're not that confident....
I hear doom and gloom from lots of Internet people who say they are sitting on cash waiting. They've been waiting a long time and missed a lot of earnings thinking the market is going to crash.
Originally Posted by CincyDavid
Makes me nervous...the train can't keep chugging along forever. I already feel like a lot of stocks are expensive, how much farther can it go?
If you truly believe this, it's the perfect instance to short the market. As soon as it runs out of gas and turns, you'll start raking it in.
(SH) Short -1x leveraged against S&P 500.
(SDS) Ultrashort -2x leveraged against S&P 500.
(SPXU) Ultrapro Short -3x leveraged against S&P 500.
Expense ratios around 0.9% are pretty terrible.
This is really a case of needing to put your money where your mouth is.
Unless you're not that confident....
I hear doom and gloom from lots of Internet people who say they are sitting on cash waiting. They've been waiting a long time and missed a lot of earnings thinking the market is going to crash.
Originally Posted by Leo99
I hear doom and gloom from lots of Internet people who say they are sitting on cash waiting. They've been waiting a long time and missed a lot of earnings thinking the market is going to crash.
I hear you.
And it really is a silly strategy. If they truly believe the doom and gloom then the wise choice is to take the short position, they'll make big money all the way down. Then sell the shorts and reinvest and ride it back up.
There's and old Peter Lynch quote that goes something like:
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."
Remember, make your money work for you, not you work for your money.
Only you can decide!!!
I hear doom and gloom from lots of Internet people who say they are sitting on cash waiting. They've been waiting a long time and missed a lot of earnings thinking the market is going to crash.
I hear you.
And it really is a silly strategy. If they truly believe the doom and gloom then the wise choice is to take the short position, they'll make big money all the way down. Then sell the shorts and reinvest and ride it back up.
There's and old Peter Lynch quote that goes something like:
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."
Remember, make your money work for you, not you work for your money.
Only you can decide!!!
America just keeps on winning and winning....
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/03/private-payrolls-grew-by-230000-in-september-vs-185k-est-adp.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/03/us-markets-fresh-economic-data-in-focus.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/03/private-payrolls-grew-by-230000-in-september-vs-185k-est-adp.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/03/us-markets-fresh-economic-data-in-focus.html
Originally Posted by Imp4
Originally Posted by Leo99
I hear doom and gloom from lots of Internet people who say they are sitting on cash waiting. They've been waiting a long time and missed a lot of earnings thinking the market is going to crash.
I hear you.
And it really is a silly strategy. If they truly believe the doom and gloom then the wise choice is to take the short position, they'll make big money all the way down. Then sell the shorts and reinvest and ride it back up.
There's and old Peter Lynch quote that goes something like:
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."
Remember, make your money work for you, not you work for your money.
Only you can decide!!!
I remember the same sentiment in 1996. Pretty much all the time til it finally imploded in the dot com bubble. But it never crashed back down to 1996 levels.
Originally Posted by Leo99
I hear doom and gloom from lots of Internet people who say they are sitting on cash waiting. They've been waiting a long time and missed a lot of earnings thinking the market is going to crash.
I hear you.
And it really is a silly strategy. If they truly believe the doom and gloom then the wise choice is to take the short position, they'll make big money all the way down. Then sell the shorts and reinvest and ride it back up.
There's and old Peter Lynch quote that goes something like:
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."
Remember, make your money work for you, not you work for your money.
Only you can decide!!!
I remember the same sentiment in 1996. Pretty much all the time til it finally imploded in the dot com bubble. But it never crashed back down to 1996 levels.
I remember watching CNBC a decade ago and losing about thirty thou in a matter of a few hours. I was two years away from my retirement and didn't flinch. Stayed in stocks until the present and did well. I'm still in stocks, just less than before. I smell a bubble. The third world, however, has seen a lot of carnage. That's starting to look interesting. I'm mostly in cheap index funds and etf's cause I really don't think the market knows anything. It is where it is and people who try to beat it usually lose their shirts.
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I don't know enough to ever DREAM of playing around with shorting anything. I'd lose my butt. The reality is, I'm 15-18 years from retirement and I'll just keep plowing money into my 401K, my wife's 403B, the HSA, etc...and hopefully have enough sitting there when the time comes to be at least comfortable in retirement...then drop dead and the kids will wind up with whatever's left.
Originally Posted by CincyDavid
I don't know enough to ever DREAM of playing around with shorting anything. I'd lose my butt. The reality is, I'm 15-18 years from retirement and I'll just keep plowing money into my 401K, my wife's 403B, the HSA, etc...and hopefully have enough sitting there when the time comes to be at least comfortable in retirement...then drop dead and the kids will wind up with whatever's left.
So, this is the wisest contribution to this entire thread.
It is probably the most important thing to know what you're not good at.
Stay away from those things and it'll probably work out well in the long run.
FWIW, you and I are like minded in our investing approaches.
I don't know enough to ever DREAM of playing around with shorting anything. I'd lose my butt. The reality is, I'm 15-18 years from retirement and I'll just keep plowing money into my 401K, my wife's 403B, the HSA, etc...and hopefully have enough sitting there when the time comes to be at least comfortable in retirement...then drop dead and the kids will wind up with whatever's left.
So, this is the wisest contribution to this entire thread.
It is probably the most important thing to know what you're not good at.
Stay away from those things and it'll probably work out well in the long run.
FWIW, you and I are like minded in our investing approaches.
It's overbought, it has to pullback, blah blah blah. IT DID JUST PULL BACK at the beginning of 2018! Now it's breaking out again.
And the total market indexes like the Valueline Geometric have broken out of the long term consolidation from 2000-2007, retested the breakout, and continued higher.
Of course the market can go a lot higher. There is nothing indicating a top is in currently.
And the total market indexes like the Valueline Geometric have broken out of the long term consolidation from 2000-2007, retested the breakout, and continued higher.
Of course the market can go a lot higher. There is nothing indicating a top is in currently.
Originally Posted by Drew99GT
It's overbought, it has to pullback, blah blah blah. IT DID JUST PULL BACK at the beginning of 2018! Now it's breaking out again.
And the total market indexes like the Valueline Geometric have broken out of the long term consolidation from 2000-2007, retested the breakout, and continued higher.
Of course the market can go a lot higher. There is nothing indicating a top is in currently.
Using terms like these, it appears you are a trader instead of a long term investor.
How has your performance been over a 10+ year time frame versus your selected benchmark at the start of the timeframe?
It's overbought, it has to pullback, blah blah blah. IT DID JUST PULL BACK at the beginning of 2018! Now it's breaking out again.
And the total market indexes like the Valueline Geometric have broken out of the long term consolidation from 2000-2007, retested the breakout, and continued higher.
Of course the market can go a lot higher. There is nothing indicating a top is in currently.
Using terms like these, it appears you are a trader instead of a long term investor.
How has your performance been over a 10+ year time frame versus your selected benchmark at the start of the timeframe?
FWIW, I don't really sense much irrational exuberance. In fact, the responses from this thread seem to indicate there is plenty of healthy skepticism, which, ironically is bullish. I think the run has 1-2 years left, but I KNOW I don't know.
Originally Posted by Imp4
Originally Posted by Drew99GT
It's overbought, it has to pullback, blah blah blah. IT DID JUST PULL BACK at the beginning of 2018! Now it's breaking out again.
And the total market indexes like the Valueline Geometric have broken out of the long term consolidation from 2000-2007, retested the breakout, and continued higher.
Of course the market can go a lot higher. There is nothing indicating a top is in currently.
Using terms like these, it appears you are a trader instead of a long term investor.
How has your performance been over a 10+ year time frame versus your selected benchmark at the start of the timeframe?
I actually am not a trader. Tried that and lost. Long term investor, but I still "look" at the markets and analyze them for a hobby. I know I'm too stupid to try and pick tops and bottoms! It just amuses me to see people continually say they're in cash, or they're shorting the market etc.
Originally Posted by Drew99GT
It's overbought, it has to pullback, blah blah blah. IT DID JUST PULL BACK at the beginning of 2018! Now it's breaking out again.
And the total market indexes like the Valueline Geometric have broken out of the long term consolidation from 2000-2007, retested the breakout, and continued higher.
Of course the market can go a lot higher. There is nothing indicating a top is in currently.
Using terms like these, it appears you are a trader instead of a long term investor.
How has your performance been over a 10+ year time frame versus your selected benchmark at the start of the timeframe?
I actually am not a trader. Tried that and lost. Long term investor, but I still "look" at the markets and analyze them for a hobby. I know I'm too stupid to try and pick tops and bottoms! It just amuses me to see people continually say they're in cash, or they're shorting the market etc.
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